원문 보기
as i've watched the price of gold finally get back up to 1900 an ounce we've got silver prices now about 28 dollars an ounce and it's been a long hard grind for gold to get back up to 1900 and i know along the way a lot of people have been expressing some frustration by gold's failure to make an even bigger move faster well i want to assure everybody that i think your days of frustration will soon come to an end and i think vindication is around the corner because i do believe a major move up in both the price of gold and silver is eminent and in fact to the extent that people still have cash on the sideline that they are yet to commit to the market i would not wait i suggest that everybody have a full position so whatever you feel your allocation is going to be to physical gold and silver my suggestion is that you fully allocate now don't wait for lower prices because you're probably going to be waiting indefinitely because i doubt they're going to get much lower in fact i expect them to get much higher and not only do i expect the price of gold and silver the metal to go much higher but i believe the premiums on the coins and bars will also go much higher so i think the sooner that you can buy the cheaper you're going to be able to get your gold and silver and the more gold and silver you'll end up owning you know part of the frustration i think that people have expressed is that they look at the inflation they see these big increases in prices and they don't see a corresponding rise in the price of gold and again people get frustrated especially when they were staring at these huge increases in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that caused a lot of people to start to question gold or maybe second guess its status as an inflation hedge thinking maybe that bitcoin had stolen its thunder and that gold is no longer the inflation hedge that it was because it's been replaced by bitcoin well that is not true and i'll get to bitcoin in a minute but the real reason that gold was not responding even stronger despite this huge increase in inflation is that the vast majority of the investing community that did not expect this inflation and they are completely surprised by what is happening they also expect the federal reserve to be able to solve the problem before it really gets started in fact the federal reserve is convincing everybody that there's nothing to worry about because whatever inflation they're experiencing or witnessing is transitory well to me i've heard this song at dance before because it is eerily familiar to what the federal reserve did back in 2007 when facing the subprime mortgage crisis because i had been forecasting this crisis for years i knew that the fed had inflated a housing bubble i understood the structure completely and i also knew the financial crisis that was going to ensue once the bubble popped and so when the subprime crisis hit in 2007 for me that's what i knew for sure that all my years of warning were correct i mean i thought i was right but i didn't actually have the proof that i was right until subprime blew up the problem was even though it should have been obvious the fed still ignored the signs and in fact the fed went out of its way to convince everybody that what they were seeing in subprime uh was contained it was a small problem it was isolated to just one part of the mortgage market and that it wouldn't spill over into the overall mortgage market and of course it wouldn't affect the us economy at all well we all know how that turned out the fed couldn't have been more wrong if it did so intentionally and in fact maybe the fed did intentionally mislead the public they were so worried about the mortgage problem that they lied and pretended it was contained the same thing is probably happening now with inflation the coming inflation crisis is going to be far worse than the financial crisis and so now the fed is do again telling everybody that there's nothing to worry about that all these prices that are going up this is all transitory that the prices are going to come back down and so they got nothing to worry about well inflation is a transitory today as subprime was contained but again everybody believes the fed now the way they believe the fed then and they also feel that even if the fed is wrong and inflation turns out to be a bigger problem than they believe well the fed has the tools to solve it with tightening monetary policy in fact everybody expects the fed to be tightening monetary policy because after all the covet emergency is over the economy is reopening we're getting back to normal and so it's time to normalize monetary policy the fed now has to raise interest rates they have to start up tapering their asset purchase program ultimately shrinking their balance sheet and it is the anticipation of either a successful fight against inflation or the mere normalization of monetary policy that has been a big headwind for gold because everybody believes that a rising interest rate environment is going to be bearish for gold and so the markets are discounting the effect of higher interest rates today well soon the markets are going to discover that they're completely wrong first of all inflation is not transitory at all inflation is permanent and it's going to get much much worse and b the fed can't do anything about it the fed is all bark and no bite when it comes to inflation fighting it has no ability to fight inflation because it has created such a massive credit bubble there is now so much debt in the system thanks to the fed that if the fed were to raise interest rates to fight inflation they would collapse the entire house of cards economy that they've been erecting over the years and so they're not going to do that and so the fed may talk about fighting inflation but they're never actually going to fight because they would lose so in fact they're going to surrender without a fight and there is no normalization coming for monetary policy in fact the fed is actually going to be throwing gasoline on the inflationary fire because we are going to have stagflation this recovery that everybody is talking about is a myth we haven't recovered from anything all we're doing is spending the money the fed prints but because the fed has printed so much money for us to spend the price of everything that we want to buy is going through the roof and so when the markets come to term with this reality then the price of gold is just going to go ballistic and before it does you want to buy as much gold and silver as you can oh and by the way the crypto bubble has already popped bitcoin has crashed from 65 000 an ounce a couple of weeks ago uh or to 30 31 000 uh not an ounce per coin a couple of weeks ago now it got as low as about 31 000 uh recently i think it's a long way down i think the bubble has popped at one point i thought 20 000 was going to be the high but they managed to create an even bigger move up and take out that high but at this point i think the odds that are that the party is over i think some of the institutions that came late to the party are already looking to leave and i think those other institutions that were thinking about joining are glad that they didn't and they were going to look away in fact i think this whole movement that we're seeing uh in the investment market where people are moving out of momentum type stocks into value stocks the same thing is happening now with bitcoin and gold people are going to be moving away from fool's gold and buying the real thing uh bitcoin has lost all that momentum and gold is regaining the center stage because the entire time bitcoin bubble has been deflating gold has been quietly moving higher and higher and higher in obscurity lot not a lot of intention being paid to the gold market this is the lull before the storm people are still excited and focused on a bubble that's already popped and they're missing a bull market that is in its infancy in fact somebody the other day had asked me why is it that every asset out there is in a bubble except gold and i think a lot of people are asking the same question well the answer is because gold is the money by which everything else is overpriced the reason that gold is not in a bubble is because everything else is in a bubble in terms of gold gold is the stable store of value gold is real money it's a safe haven and during bubbles and manias everybody wants to buy the risk assets that's where they're getting rich whether it's in stock
댓글 0