RAY Dalio Warning! "The Crash Will Be WORSE Than 2008"

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결론: 시장 타이밍은 어리석은 일이며, 현금은 안전하지 않으니 균형 잡힌 올웨더 포트폴리오로 위험을 줄이는 것이 핵심이다. [시장 타이밍] 주식 비중을 언제 줄이고 늘릴지 맞히려는 시도는 어리석다. 여러 변수가 얽혀 있어 예측이 어렵다. [현금 보유] 현금은 변동성은 낮지만 인플레이션으로 세금처럼 연 몇 %씩 가치가 깎이므로 안전한 자산이 아니다. 이자율이 이를 보상하기 어렵다. [포트폴리오 균형] 주식이 하락하면 성장 기대 약화와 완화 기대로 채권이 오르고, 금 등 다른 자산이 반응하는 식으로 자산 간 관계가 있다. 부는 파괴된다기보다 이전되며, 균형 잡힌 포트폴리오로 수익을 크게 줄이지 않고 위험을 낮출 수 있다. [중국] 1984년부터 중국을 방문해 왔고 1인당 소득이 26배 늘었다. 중국을 편향된 시각으로 보는 것은 큰 실수다. [공동 번영] 세계적으로 공동 번영(common prosperity) 흐름이 있으나 이것이 자산 몰수를 뜻하지는 않으며, 생산성 향상을 통해 이뤄져야 한다. 중국에서도 생산성 증가가 예상되므로 분산 투자가 중요하다. [종합] 특정 종목이나 자산의 방향을 예측하는 발언은 없으며, 분산과 균형을 강조한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. ray in in terms of just bottom lining it for for those in the audience this morning that uh beyond uh thinking about buying your book or thinking about whether they should be invested in the market putting more money in the market and i'm thinking about equities right now taking money out of the market how do you value this market today i think that just the way you said it is going to be a fool's journey um to say here's the stock market and i'm going to time the movement into the market i'm going to time the movement out of the market okay you know what that means okay you're going to out guess what the next uh variant move is and what the next other thing is a lot of things depend on a lot of other things and the world and everything readjusts what has to happen i think is investors most importantly have to realize two things first that cash is not a safe investment is not a safe place because it will be taxed by inflation there will not be an interest rate that will anywhere near compensate and it seems good because it's not volatile that you're paying a tax of a few percent a year on that so a stay out of that and then b know how to balance a portfolio because the way portfolios work it's almost like um for some part something happens um another thing happens in other words what what you can see in the markets today is that um let's say when equities go down because growth expectations falter and there's a greater likelihood of easing then you see the bond market go up when you see other markets gold you're seeing watch the market action on every day and you could see those relationships but wealth is not destroyed as much as it is transferred and if you know how to balance those investments we we do it in a what we call an all-weather portfolio but if you know how to balance those investments that's the most important thing being a safe well-balanced portfolio you can reduce your risk without reducing your return and you can't you will not market time this because even if you were a great market timer your the things that are happening can change the world so it changes what should be priced into the markets hey ray one of the things you do write about is china um some some would argue that you have a a generous or or more sympathetic view to china than perhaps uh some of the most hawks uh if you will about china uh but you think that there's sort of inevitability to the transfer of wealth of sorts well okay two things china transfer of wealth um i i just know china very well and i come as a perspective uh with a perspective as an investor i've been going there since 1984 i have i know um leaders and i know how they're thinking and i know the moves that they're making in a detailed way and i'm just trying to share what that perspective is because i think a lot of people make stereotypical moves and i think you have to really understand first thing you have to understand because it has been a remarkably successful place since i started going there in 1984 per capita has increased by 26 times and so on so to not understand it or to approach it with a great bias is a great disservice okay in terms of the element of let's say um a transfer of wealth or let's call it common prosperity yes there's a world in this world right now there is a much more there's a move to common prosperity not i think that um that that move what does it mean at a technical level that's not take your money away but here i i would say what are called progressives here are much more left than what we would call progressives or or whatever the chinese policies are doing um but yes worldwide there has to be common prosperity or let's call it broad prosperity and the question is whether this that's going to come about by productivity or not it doesn't mean that you're going to have like a communism that's going to take all of that there's going to be a lot of productivity in china and so again diversifying the portfolio right um you know you look at the united states elsewhere yeah diversify