저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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결론: 경기침체 우려로 시장이 조정받았지만, 침체는 아니며 약세를 이용해 주식을 사기 좋은 시점이다. [시장 하락 원인] 제조업 PMI가 2009년 이후 최저로 떨어지며 다우 -344p, S&P500 -1.23%, 나스닥 -1.13% 하락. [경기침체 논리] 주요 원인은 트럼프 관세가 중국 경제를 타격하고 그 여파가 유럽 등 교역국으로 번지는 세계 둔화다. [침체 가능성에 대한 반론] 미국은 서비스 중심 경제로 소비·국내 산업 비중이 커서 수출 충격은 제한적이다. 다만 수출 주력인 보잉 737 MAX 운항중단과 GM 파업은 부담 요인이다. [하락 배경] 10월은 뮤추얼펀드가 이익 실현에 나서는 시기이고, 시장은 이미 과매수 상태였다. 짐 크레이머는 두 주 전 조정을 예고했다. [IPO 시장] 과도한 IPO와 수익 없는 고성장 기업에 대한 수요 약화. 펠로톤은 공모가 29달러에서 22달러 수준으로 하락했다. [증권사 실적] 찰스슈왑의 수수료 무료화로 슈왑 주가 -9%, 증권주 전반 약세. [긍정 요인] 맥코믹 실적 개선으로 주가 약 7% 상승. [정치 리스크] 펠로시의 탄핵 추진으로 USMCA 재협상과 중국 무역합의가 어려워질 수 있고, 2020년 대선에서 엘리자베스 워런이 승리해 대형 기술주 분할 및 자본이득·배당세 인상이 이뤄질 우려가 있다. 크레이머는 선거 결과 예측은 어렵다고 보며 과도한 공포를 경계했다. [출연자 전망] 침체 가능성은 낮고, 현금을 늘려온 투자자는 약세를 이용해 매수를 고려해야 한다. 매수 대상 종목은 방송 후반에 언급 예정. [개별 종목 Q&A] 스카이웍스(6달러에서 100달러 부근까지 상승 후 77달러 수준)는 무역분쟁 영향이 커서 추가 매수나 매도 없이 보유를 권고. 캐노피 그로스는 52주 신저가 부근이며 추가 매수 여부에 대해 답변 보류 후 실적 확인을 권함.
다듬은 글
heir money welcome to Kramer I do to educate teach you put this kind of day in context call m okay listen to me the market deserves to get hit today when the purchasing managers index measures the strength of manufacturing slips to its lowest level since 2009 everybody's gonna freak out they're worried about a recession which is why the Dow lost 344 points SP fell one point two three percent and the Nasdaq dropped one point one three percent now me telling you this mark it was due for this beat down but I also told you that I don't believe we're headed into a recession I am standing by that position but the recession thesis became more compelling today and you need to get your head around that if you want to understand this market so let me lay it all out for you one place the single biggest prop behind the recession thesis is the president's trade policy but maybe not the way you think trama tariffs on Chinese exports have done real damage to the Chinese economy second largest in the world as China falters it is taking the rest of its trading partners with it especially Europe throwing worries about brexit along with a lack of fiscal stimulus from Germany and you've got a worldwide slowdown going it's one that we might not be immune to the logic here does sound pretty airtight does it so then how come I'm not more worried about a recession than everybody else well it's the last step yes there is a worldwide slowdown but I don't see it doing as much damage here if we were an export-oriented manufacturing economy in the united states well we'd be in a lot of trouble but we have a service driven economy two-thirds of our commerce is non industrial domestic we're a late-stage capitalist country only our exports are really vulnerable but our manufacturing base has already been devastating years ago what do we actually sell the rest of the world airplanes and automobiles and look a big export maybe the biggest it's the Boeing 737 and Max that's grounded think about that General Motors it's on strike think about that so we see that hideous purchasing managers index number today you need to take those two factors into account I don't think people did I think they explained a lot of the above the step down that we're talking about in other words we are not going back to the 2009 economy that's the worst since the Great Depression practically I doubt our exports could take us down like that they're too small lucky or not I guess to do all that much damage that's why I want to put today's action in a different context from what you might have heard we got hit today because we were due for a pullback think about it the markets happening yes P sub 70% for the 2019 we're now in the fourth quarter it's a period where mutual funds typically begin to take profits so that their investors like you can do some tax planning its natural remember I predicted this pullback two weeks ago and I had no idea about the PMI number we got today I said to be something off the wall that would hurt us I hadn't known there was going to be this the truth is that the market had already gotten severely overbought hence why we've been ringing the register for my travel trust and I've been coming out here pretty much every day telling you we've been ringing the register you can find out more by joining the Action Alerts plus calm Club which I'm pretty yeah let's say I've been adamant that well bring the register today we actually did for the first time some buying but only a little because I think the averages could have more downside I'm sold something to buy but it's the first buying I have sanctioned because at last today so much profit taking or oversold what else okay the market has been exhausted by initial public offerings that buyers are no longer interested in or more accurately are repulsed by I told you this was going to happen that there would come a day where they've been so many deals that it could wreck the whole darn market accomplish with rapid growth and no profits of going way out of style in the wall street fashion so so there's little demand for something like a peloton which came public at 29 and last week I told you to sell it and now sits at $22 and change that's the latest in a long line of disappointing deals and they're weighing on the averages thank you uber third we got a rout away and what could happen during early season when the brokerage stocks collapsed one news the Charles Schwab will no longer take a commission on a host of products including stocks ETFs and options Schwab stock dropped 9% new trades plunged 16% egads cheesy merger e down 25% on the other hand were also some positives let's keep track of these right you didn't hear much about it there was McCormick the Spice Company their port is slightly better than spent in quarter it stocks shot up get this nearly 7% mostly because of strength in this particular brand of frags so I wouldn't be too worried about the Ernie season there's gonna be good and some bad fourth there's Washington in this matters two weeks ago I interviewed Speaker Nancy Pelosi and she talked about the need to work together with the President to pass the new NAFTA the revised trade deal with Mexico and Canada that's essential to so many companies and their employees but just a few days later the Ukraine story broke and suddenly she's leading the charge on impeachment hard to work with the President on the trade agreement and him peach him at the same time beyond that however every may feel about impeachment the potential spillover effects are undeniable and they're jarring people there's a week that Trump won't be able to get a trade deal from China it'd be some peach in the house because the Chinese just say ah that will us for certain cut back on business investment more importantly depending on how bad this gets for the president there's a real possibility that it could lead to a democratic sweep in next year's elections so I mean you could put Elizabeth Warren in the White House she's the putative leader and give her both chambers of Congress Wall Street is terrified of Warren I think if a lot of that is overblown but my view does not matter as long as this is the narrative that terrified by Warren employers that ever the narrative we need to be prepared for endless bouts of selling every time there's some new development with the impeachment proceedings or another poll that puts more in ahead of say Biden in the primaries and that could last right up until Election Day so how come I'm not losing more sweet sleep over this scenario for starters it is very early in the race we have no idea what will happen trying to bet on the election results more than a year in advance I think that's a fool's game on top of that there's always a possibility that Trump will get a trade deal with China I think the chances are slim but if the president thinks he's slipping he might be a lot more willing to compromise with the Chinese but the main reason I'm not worried about a worn White House or at least as much as the other guy is that I just don't think it's going to be nearly as big a deal as people think Wall Street is acting as this is her playbook that she's Chairman Mao frankly that's lunacy I've spent more to raise taxes on the very rich well it's shocker she's been saying that I think should go after companies that she believes her too powerful like Teddy Roosevelt did more than a century ago as Mark Zuckerberg pointed out it will suck for Facebook if she goes after them but he'll be able to take his case to a court of law maybe a win will Warren break up big tech I have to tell you as I see the price dirties ratios of these stocks collapse it might be that bad if say let's say she's his alphabet has to be broken up now they may not want it okay but it might be positive for shareholders I mean you get some you tube and you get to weigh more way mo you gets a healthcare thing and get the search frankly that's gonna add up to a heck of a lot more in the stock is right now yeah the parts are now worth more than the whole worst thing for the stock market I see one pushing to tax capital gains and dividends at the same way ordinary income that's not something new what's happened because rich people do benefit inwardly from keeping those rates lower because they own more stock it's certainly possible that investors will sell stock ahead of time in an effort to anticipate that change but again I'm telling you that really feels like gun jumping here's the bottom line I am NOT saying it's time to head for the exes here in fact I am saying the opposite if you've been selling stock for weeks to raise cash as I've been advising you to this is a good time to start looking for stocks to buy into weakness and we've got some we're gonna mention later in the show but if you're living in fear of recession or of the prospect of an Elizabeth Warren presidency I think you're going to miss out on some terrific opportunities and I think you're too scared tack reasonably to protect or grow your wealth Joel in Florida Joel hi Jen first I want to thank you for your advice making me a lot of money ah South Florida I'll be glad to give you lessons of learning to play the beautiful game of high-low no question yeah and not just watching the play I used to go to Big Bend High Line when I when it opened in Tallahassee and your talent man I got to tell you that's fun it is the front the front it's a beautiful sport my question is that some time ago you recommended skyward solutions which I bought at six dollars a share yes and I permitted it up over several years and I guess skyworks went sky-high to over a hundred to appoint being labeled a pig I sold some for a nice fat profit and left some on the table I think they call it playing with the house enhance right that's my goal now skyworks descended from the celestial hundred to about seventy seven my question is do I sell buy or stay the course well remember you're playing with houses money so you don't really have to do anything that was during that stop was at six we had mister alders from David Aldridge I said this stock is going much higher it went from six to one hundred thank you for remembering that like I nailed that then Liam Griffin came in Liam's terrific but this is very much caught in the crosshairs of the trade dispute I would not buy more I would not sell more I would hold on to it Liam Griffin please come back on the show and not just because the Patriots look like they're gonna go all the way again which is unfortunate Trevor in North Carolina Trevor hey Jim I'm 23 years old and although I'm a court cutter I listen to the podcast every single morning hey tell you where you can get it thank you hey Jim so I got 23 in my twenty thirty percent of my Mad Money portfolio tied up in canopy growth at a forty dollar cost basis okay what can be gross hit this 52 week low should I double down here or move over to something like GW Pharma performance riff okay and I know that you were some short rein on it GW farmers real but I had a constellation brands reports of the third let's see what they have to say about canopy before we pull triggering anymore alright I do not believe we're gonna have a recession alright I understand and you may disagree but it's important to take a deep breath and don't let panic take over and you know what I've got to tell you I have seen enough times in my life that people have been trying to let's just say take quotes for the chairman mail I don't see that right now with one of the presidential candidates that people think is doing that well man money today Chinese IPOs are back in the news as rumors squirrel if the government is considering limiting Chinese cuppie's access the u.s.
cut capital markets what does it mean for recent Chinese uphills I'm work for you my take this isn't the SS sheep se season well alright then even in a trade war people have to eat so how about thinking closer look at the appetite you play I'm going off the charts to find out and then give you my conclusions and in a market dominated by trade worries I'm playing defense by going domestic right the company that keeps the lights on in this city that never sleeps it's here that electrify your portfolio before he has don't miss my exclusive with planets yo and
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