Stock market undergoing a historic 'sea change,' says Oaktree's Howard Marks

요약 보기

Howard Marks는 투자 환경이 큰 전환기에 들어섰다고 진단한다. 53년 투자 경력을 바탕으로 금리 하락기(1980~2020), 리스크-수익 분석 도입기(70년대 이후)에 이어 세 번째 전환(Sea change)이 시작되었다고 본다. 2008년 금융위기 이후 14년간 중앙은행의 초완화 정책으로 대출자와 자산 보유자에게 극히 유리한 환경이 지속되었으며, 이는 정상(normalcy)이 아니라고 주장한다. 이 시기를 '버블'이라 부르기는 어렵다고 보며, 자산 수익률이 비정상적으로 높았던 특수한 시기로 규정한다. 금리: 앞으로는 자극적 저금리가 항상 유지되기 어렵다고 본다. 인플레이션과의 싸움이 끝나면 연준 기준금리는 내려가겠지만, 과거 제로금리 시대로 돌아가긴 어렵다는 입장이다. 예측: 향후 몇 년간 연준 기준금리는 0~2%보다 2~4% 평균에 머무를 가능성이 더 높다고 메모에 적었으나, 본인은 예측을 믿지 않으며 Oaktree도 예측에 베팅하지 않는다고 강조한다. 경기침체가 오면 다시 저금리로 대응될 수 있으나 그것은 장기적 과정이라고 본다. 출연자 전망 요약: 구조적 고금리 시대 진입, 레버리지·자산가격에 우호적이었던 환경의 종료 가능성.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Howard welcome fresh off that memo everyone's talking about thank you Sarah it's nice to be here it's good to have you and and happy holidays so let's start with the sea change that was the big headline from your report it's how you you kicked off your memo you said 53 years in your investing career there have been three sea changes and we are in one of them what does that mean well a sea change is a major transformation of the environment a complete change in attitudes Etc and I suspect that we that we may be at the beginning of one uh the first one was the uh the fall of interest rates uh from 20 to zero between 80 and 1980 and 2020 which had uh very very positive effects the second was the opening of investors Minds to what we call risk return analysis and before the 70s the job of the investor was to avoid risk uh after the seven season was to intelligently take risk and that was a big change and I think that we may be uh on the doorstep of of the Third so what what is the sea change well you know since that's happening since the FED central banks around the world and the treasury took a strong action to solve the global financial crisis in 0809 uh we have been living in a highly stimulated very positive uh easy money environment uh for uh roughly 14 years and uh I think that you know a lot of people began to invest or came into the business in those 14 years not too many have a perspective on the period before the global financial crisis and and and uh they may think that the last 14 years was normalcy I don't think so I think it was the best imaginable period for borrowers and for asset owners uh and I don't think that it's necessarily going to continue so do you do you characterize the past 14 years post financial crisis as a bubble and now that now that's popping we return to some sort of normality or even a crash well a bubble uh most people take a bubble to mean irrational appreciation and uh the the asset appreciation in that period was not uh terribly positive it wasn't an unusual uh 14-year period in terms of uh asset returns Etc and it it wasn't the the result of uh uh unrealistically optimistic thinking so I bubble I think has a specific use but it was a it was a hyped uh unusually positive uh period of when everything was easy for certain classes of uh of people uh as I said before borrowers and asset owners in particular uh and it isn't normalcy and it's not I don't think gonna be the norm going forward so is your bottom line that that stimulative rates are a thing of the past and now we should just get used to higher rates for longer even though the market is sort of thinking that they might go down next year well uh you know I I don't I don't think that we should expect I I don't think it's prudent to expect to have stimulative rates all the time you know I I describe that as as taking a shot of adrenaline every morning I don't think it's very viable um uh we'll see lower rates well first of all when the when it when the battle against inflation is one I think rates will the the FED will bring the FED funds rate back down um and uh we'll see uh very low rates again if there's a recession that has to be uh cured um uh over time but I just think that you know people got so used to zero rates of interest you know the fed the FED brought the the FED funds rate to zero uh late 08 to fight the global financial crisis and left it there for seven years and had a Dickens of the time raising it because it thought it should it should it thought that we shouldn't permanently be at zero but but the markets had tantrums and resisted um I don't I don't think that uh you know what I say in the memo I don't make many predictions I don't believe in predictions including my own we don't bet on predictions at Oak Tree but what I said in the memo is I think that for the next several years the FED funds rate is more likely to average between two and four than between zero and two that's as far as I can go