저자: DavidTepper—CNBC인터뷰 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 테퍼는 주식시장에 대해 단기적으로 '숏(하락)' 쪽으로 기울어 있다고 밝혔다. [연준 긴축과 금융여건] 연준이 실제로 긴축을 더 강하게 하지 않으면 시장은 연준의 의지를 믿지 않는다는 취지로 이야기했다. 주택착공 감소, 모기지금리 고점 대비 90bp 하락, 정크본드 스프레드 고점 대비 150bp 하락, 10년물 금리 60bp 하락 등 금융여건 완화는 연준이 원하는 수준에는 충분하지 않다고 봤다. [시장 수익률과 밸류에이션] 2019년 말 대비 지난 3년 연환산 수익률이 7~8% 수준이라 현재 위치는 아주 나쁘지 않다고 평가했다. 다만 금리가 높아진 상황에서 S&P500 기준 2020~2021년처럼 높은 멀티플을 유지하기는 어렵다고 보았고, 2010년대 초 11~12배 수준과 비교하며 현재 16배 가정 시 주가가 추가로 조정될 여지를 시사했다. [인플레이션과 중앙은행] 연준·ECB 등 주요 중앙은행이 인플레이션 2% 목표를 위해 4% 이상 고착을 막으려 할 것이라고 봤다. 연준이 여전히 긴축을 이어갈 것이라는 전제가 깔려 있다. [투자 전략] 일반 투자자는 장기 보유가 원칙이라고 말했지만, 헤지펀드 운용자로서는 주식시장에 대해 '리닝 숏(약세 쪽 기울기)'이며 채권도 숏 쪽이라고 밝혔다. 다만 본인은 본래 낙관적 성향이라 이 기울기가 단정적 전망은 아니라고 덧붙였다. [리스크] 경기 침체가 얕게 올 가능성이나 중앙은행이 정책을 전환할 가능성도 열어두었다. [종합] 단기 약세 쪽 입장이지만 확신보다는 '기울기' 수준의 발언이다.
다듬은 글
you mentioned earlier just a few seconds ago that the market doesn't seem to believe the FED does that what does that mean is that they so they have to even act tougher talk tougher do more things to do uh here's here's the risk okay you have um you know housing starts out yesterday you saw the decline but the truth is um that was in November where rates Peak mortgage rates peaked in the early November well they're down 90 basis points since that okay that doesn't really help you a lot junk spreads um down 150 basis points since they're peak in early October late September that doesn't really do a lot for you if you're the FED um the 10-year treasury which you're you know which you see every day down 60 basis points well that doesn't do a lot of that all these different things being easier since then obviously the stock market since those 3 600 levels up near 10 well that doesn't do much for you if you're the fed and by the way talking about how much the Market's down or not down since 19 before covet we've probably got seven eight percent annual returns so at this point right now where we're sitting that's not so bad Joe I mean historically now this year is not good but the last three years and I'm not talking lows I'm talking 19 the end of 19.
before coven I mean we have reasonable returns for the last three years based on that rate um and you know I don't know if 19 was exactly the end of 19 what do you exactly call a you know a low point in the market before covex struck so um I mean I'm looking at that and I got I gotta I mean we don't have coordinated tightening around the whole world and everybody typing at the same time too often we just don't and I don't have people telling me they're going to go further tightly you just don't and they don't tell me where they're going to go too often and you just don't and they don't have a two years and two years here below where they tell me gonna do when if they go that way on average so far below it you just don't so I have these you want to call them you know and I understand that you get other people saying inflation's down they should do this and they should do that well they're telling me what they want to do and they know all this stuff that all these other people do because they're worried about this other underlying um mismatched labor market I think I think you know that they're worried about that they may be worried about other things but just they don't want inflation to take hold and they don't want it to get higher you don't want to have a steady state that you think after you do things before you know four percent or four and a half you know four percent caught you know they want inflation at two percent so they're looking at Beyond when the inflation comes down from eight percent to you know it's going to come down to four percent or something like that they don't want to persist in four percent they want to get in front of that a little bit because they're very they're fairly nervous about that they're nervous about it the people he's nervous about it the um the ECB is nervous about it you know so it's it's it is what it is but David I can't and close enough what do you do yeah I can't imagine you're throwing in the towel and closing up shop over this that's a tough environment but what are you doing no we're not closing up shop now um look uh listen what I do and what you know other people do you know what normal investors that look at the show I mean you're supposed to always hold stocks and get looked through these things and own for a long long term because you know to a certain extent so that does that means if you're stock portfolio is your your range your stock portfolio from 50 to 60 long to 90 long it would probably be less long that's what that means to me you know because the average person should not be moving around things so I keep some things because attaches and other reasons you know Warren Buffett would always keep things forever so he doesn't have to pay taxes on it um but for me as a as a hedge fund manager I'm going to lean uh short you know I'll be you know I'll be short bonds and I'll I'm not a great I'm like generally an optimist you know I have just the way I'm that I just have that sort of uh lean that way so it's like I don't I'm not I would probably say I'm leaning short on the equity markets right you know so right now because I think they're you know I think the upside down side just doesn't make sense to me would I have so many people tell me so many central banks telling me what they're going to do what they want to do what they expect to do I mean they have to get and it has to and and everybody comes people come on and say well this is going on they know that stuff but they're worried about the underlying stuff I should have to worry what they're worried about and by the way if you think that they're wrong you know out there because it's going to go down you know well maybe you know maybe they'll cost and maybe they realize it and I don't know what they're saying because they can't say it but maybe there will be a you know a small recession of some sort and we'll affect prices and you know and you know with the market listen you see these I saw somebody else on your show the other day they had a 220 price chart 220 earnings estimate for the s p well these interest rates it's kind of hard to have a higher they were put on really high multiple and I'm saying why am I still putting these high multiples of like when I had one percent rates on these things I got to put in water bowls through realistically of the market so that's a question of the stock market right now what's should be the multiple and Joe you you're you've been around for a lot of markers not to give your age away on TV but um you know these motables what should the model will be we live through multiples of when I was when for instance when we were talking 2010 the multiple was like 11 12.
back then okay coming out of 2009 and those were in those rates I mean you know to get to you know this multiple now is you know if you had 220 times 225 times 16 is 3 600 I mean I'm just am I suggesting 225s right or and you can see what people are forecasting forecast on your show you know if it's a 16 multiple you know in those days you would have said great going from 2010 we're gonna talk about those days I go to 12 16 that's a 33 increase right at the moment
댓글 0