저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 연준의 완화정책과 인플레이션을 비판하며 금·은·금광주 헤지를 권하지만, 현재 금이 오르지 않는 역전된 시장을 영화 '빅쇼트'에 빗대 설명하고 있다. [연준 정책과 인플레이션] 연준이 인플레이션을 잡을 수단이 있다면 이미 썼을 것이라는 주장으로, 연준의 인플레이션 일시성 주장은 허세(블러핑)라고 본다. 인플레이션을 방치했다가 나중에 잡으려 하면 경제 피해가 더 커진다고 경고한다. 연준은 돈을 계속 찍으면 인플레, 멈추면 경기침체, 금리를 올리면 경기침체와 증시 폭락이라는 진퇴양난에 있으며, 연준은 항상 문제를 미루는 방식을 택한다고 설명한다. [불러드 총재 발언] 불러드 총재가 고인플레가 지속될 것이라고 인정했다는 점을 쉬프는 솔직한 발언으로 평가한다. [헤지 자산과 시장 역전] 쉬프가 권하는 헤지는 금·은·금광주이며, 금은 전통적으로 인플레이션 헤지 자산이다. 그러나 현재는 금이 상승하지 않고 정체되어 있으며, 달러도 하락하지 않는 등 고전적 관계가 뒤집혀 있다고 주장한다. 금광주는 예상과 달리 오르지 않았고, 옳게 예측한 사람들이 보상을 받지 못하고 있다고 말한다. [빅쇼트 비유] 영화에서도 2008년 직전 시장 상식이 뒤집혔고 옳은 사람들이 주로 붕괴 후에야 보상받았다고 언급하며, 쉬프는 지금의 역전이 얼마나 지속될지 묻는다. [출연자 전망] 쉬프는 금·은·금광주가 인플레 상황에서 오를 것이라는 견해를 유지하고 있으나, 시장 역전이 오래 갈지는 확신하지 못한다고 말한다.
다듬은 글
roughly 80 to 90 million each year which is high but i was the first to do this trade watch it we'll pay i may have been early but i'm not wrong in peter schiff's recent podcast episode 738 inflation burns while the fed fiddles his comments are eerily reminiscent of the 2015 film the big short the way he describes the current relationship between the us dollar gold and the fed's money printing is very emblematic of the big short right before the 2008 housing crash in the movie as the bubble inflates the sentiment is utter despair and confusion all three of the movie's main characters are in shock and seemingly ready to bash their heads in a wall at the level of fraud they're witnessing nonetheless all of them refuse to dump their positions and hold until the end even at great risk of their funds imploding there are multiple scenes and lines in the movie that illustrate the complete backwardness of the situation they're in such as when bury is on the phone with goldman w where do you have our position marked i think it's the same mike what can you explain that to me please because how can the value of an insurance contract not be affected by the demise of the very thing it ensures they're independent markets they're not always correlated i know it sounds odd but these are very complicated products they are correlated to briefly summarize homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages saw their rates skyrocket then they defaulted on their loans cash flows to cdos dried up cdo managers couldn't pay their bond holders and the owners of the insurance contracts the credit default swaps got their big payouts in another clip in the movie charlie and jamie are just as confused as everyone else i just had to wire bear and deutsche seventy thousand dollars it's like two plus two equals fish great you bought into a rigged game gonna lose everything i'm gonna have to move back in with my mom the confusion continues throughout the movie as it builds up to the collapse mark you there yeah did you hear mortgage defaults have gone through the roof is anybody jumping off the buildings yet why would they subprime mortgage bond prices are up what bennett wants 1.9 million more in collateral buy close vent is asking us to post collateral what the hell is going on we don't know but deutsche is on the phone demanding payment fast forwarding to today peter schiff appears to be echoing the same confusion peter for some time now has been talking about the fed's loose monetary policy and inflation he's very critical when it comes to the fed's policy and for good reason recently he's continued to harp on the fed talking about talking about tapering meaning the fed is all smoke and mirrors and that if the fed had the tools they speak of to fight off or slow inflation they would already be using them there is no point in taking a gamble that inflation is transitory and risking that much destruction because i've been saying it's a bluff he's got no intention of raising interest rates and fighting inflation but of course the one thing he can't do is admit that so he's got nothing in his hand and so he has to bluff and so he pretends he's going to fight inflation but i keep pointing out that if the fed could fight inflation it already would have i mean it doesn't make any sense to sit idly by and watch all this happen if you really have the tools to stop it you would use them you wouldn't just be betting at all on hopes that this is all transitory especially when you know you're making an all or nothing bet because if the fed bets wrong it's economic armageddon i mean can you imagine if the fed waits until inflation is 10 and then finally tries to fight it put that genie back in the bottle the damage that would be done to an even more over leveraged economy no if the fed really had the ability to use these tools it would be using them it would be doing something to prevent inflation from getting much worse right now there would be no reason to take a chance on it being transitory unless you felt the consequences would be so bad of fighting inflation now that you got no choice but to bet it all on transitory and that tells you how bad it would be to fight the inflation now if the fed doesn't want to do it and is willing on taking a chance that it's going to get much much worse and imagine how bad it's going to be if the fed were to fight inflation after it got much worse because if it's afraid to fight it now how's it gonna do it later it's not essentially the fed is doing what it always does kick the can down the road hoping that they can delay the inevitable for as long as possible what peter schiff often describes is that the fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place if they continue to print money there will be more inflation however if they stop printing money the economy will go through a recession but if there is high inflation they will be forced to raise interest rates which will also put the economy into a recession and crash the stock market so basically no matter what happens there will be economic turmoil the only question is how bad will it get and for how long can it be delayed peter often says that the longer the fed waits the worse the turmoil will be and that it would be best to slow the printing of money and raise rates stopping inflation and going through a recession now the longer the fed waits the bigger and longer the recession will be but bullard actually came out and said something honest for a change although understated but honest he said that higher inflation is here to stay he basically admitted that the cpi numbers are not going to fall back to two percent and he said that we had better get used to higher inflation for some time like an extended period of time the hedge that peter often touts as a way to survive and thrive during the coming economic hardship is through gold silver and gold mining stocks gold has historically always been looked at as a store of value and hedge against higher inflation and economic recessions however as peter goes on to describe like in the big shorts these classical relationships are completely inverted but you know it's not just gold that is ignoring reality i mean look at the dollar the dollar's not going down here so subprime loans go bad but some prime bonds which are made up of subprime loans are more valuable oh they want another 1.9 million by market close what about the ratings agencies moody's s p are they downgrading the cdo's the mortgage bond where the ratings agencies at they're the [ __ ] same nope they're all still triple a what the hell are you [ __ ] kidding me those [ __ ] those [ __ ] mortgage defaults have done nothing but go up yet you quote us a higher price on the bonds please explain that to me there's no way that makes sense there's no way you're marking these swaps appropriately i mean why should we back out of this trade right now as inflation rises and it becomes increasingly obvious that fed cannot contain it the price of gold should be soaring and yet it continues to stagnate unbelievable we know unbelievable it's completely backwards and for some reason no matter how wrong fed governors have been in the past remember ben bernanke don't worry about subprime it's contained right so fed was completely wrong there yet for some reason none of the fed's credibility is lost and so when powell says don't worry inflation is transitory and if it's not we've got the tools we're going to fight it the market believes it and so all this inflation all the evidence that is getting worse instead of buying gold and buying gold stocks they're selling gold and dumping gold stocks expecting the fed to do something we can do triple b level swaps at 500 basis points maybe you're pricing the swaps like the bond is going to collapse even though the bond value is going up really at times what the hell is going on peter also mentions how the people that were right are the ones not getting paid also very similar to the big short up until the collapse i should be making even more money on my gold stocks but i'm not and i think a lot of other people are very frustrated because they were right and they're not getting paid this statement from bullard should have basically been an eye-opener and people should have just started dumping dollars and buying gold historically if there is a unexpected increase in inflation and the fed gets behind the curve the biggest beneficiaries are gold mining stocks but it's not happening everything that we thought was gonna happen in the economy with inflation with the deficits it's all happening but we're not getting paid the the bonds aren't going down they won't move it's possible that we are in a completely fraudulent system or you're you're wrong sure um it's possible wrong i just i just don't know how the question today is how long will this inversion carry on for in the big shorts it did not last long and ultimately the ones who saw through the inversion were the ones that got paid
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