Warren Buffett : A Big Cube of Gold

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결론: 버핏은 통화 자산과 금 같은 비생산 자산에 비판적이며, 농장·기업처럼 현금흐름을 창출하는 생산적 자산을 선호한다. 통화 관련 자산(예금·채권·현금 등)에 대한 견해: 모든 통화 투자는 정부가 앞으로 어떻게 행동할지에 거는 베팅이며, 대부분의 통화는 시간이 지나며 가치가 하락해 왔다. 보상이 매우 높지 않다면 이런 투자는 의미가 적다고 본다. 금에 대한 견해: 전 세계 금을 모두 모으면 약 67피트 정사각형 큐브(약 16.5~17만 톤)가 되지만, 금은 아무것도 생산하지 않는다. 금 매수는 나중에 누군가 더 높은 가격에 사줄 것이라는 기대에 베팅하는 것이며, 사람들의 종이화폐에 대한 두려움이 얼마나 지속될지에 거는 것과 같다고 비판한다. 생산적 자산에 대한 견해: 농장처럼 매년 작물(옥수수·대두·면화 등)을 생산하는 자산은 수익을 현금흐름으로 계산할 수 있어 합리적 투자 대상이다. 세금·소작료 등을 고려해 기대 수익을 계산하고, 가격 변동을 매일 확인할 필요가 없다고 설명한다. 기업·주식에 대한 견해: 기업을 살 때도 주가 시세를 매주 확인하지 않으며, 버크셔는 보유한 생산적 자산이 전달할 수 있는 가치와 그 자본을 어떻게 활용할지를 본다. 증권시장이 몇 년간 문을 닫아도 상관없다는 태도를 보인다. 리스크/조건: 특정 기간 가격 전망은 언급하지 않았으며 장기적 자산 선호 원칙만 제시함. 출연자 전망: 금·통화 자산에 대해 구조적으로 부정적이며, 장기 관점에서 생산적 자산을 선호한다는 입장.

다듬은 글

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01. the commodity market in particular gold have appreciated astronomically over the last few years please explain why you have not invested more heavily in commodities the three major categories of investment and you ought to think very hard about which category you want to be in before you start thinking about the the choices available within that category now the the first category is anything denominated in a currency it can be bonds it can be deposits in a bank it can be a money market fund it can be cash in your pocket and the if you if you will reach in your pocket i don't like to do this but uh and pull out your wallet this is you're watching a historic event uh if you look at this and i might point out this is a one charlie carries uh on the back of it it says in god we trust and that's really false advertising uh the the uh if elizabeth warren were here she would say quite properly it should say in government we trust because god isn't going to do anything about that dollar bill you know if government does the wrong things in terms of keeping it as valuable as it was when you parted with it to buy a bond or put it in a bank any currency related investment is a bet on how government now and in the future will behave almost all currencies have declined in value over time i mean it maybe then built into almost any economic system that it will be easier to work with a value of currency declines in value than a currency that appreciates in value and the japanese might reaffirm that here with their experience so as a class currency related investments whether they're in the uk or the united states or any place else unless we're getting paid extremely well for having them we do not think make much sense the second category of investments regard items that you buy that don't produce anything but that you hope someone will pay you more for later on and the classic case of that uh is gold and i've used this illustration before but if you take all of the gold in the world don't get too excited now the uh and put it into a cube it will be a cube that's about 67 feet on a side it'd be 165 thousand or 170 metric tons so you could have a cube if you owned all the gold in the world you could have a cube that would be 67 or 68 feet uh on a side and you could get a ladder and you could climb up on top of it and you could say you know i'm sitting on top of the world and you know and i think you're king of the world you could you know you could fondle it you could polish it you could you could do all these things with it stare at it but it isn't going to do anything now it's all you are doing when you buy that is that you're hoping that somebody else a year from now or five years from now will pay you more to own something that again can't do anything but you're hoping that the person then thinks that somebody else will buy something five years later from him there was you're betting on not just how scared people are now of paper money you're betting on how much they think a year from now people will be scared two years from then on the third category of asset is something that you value based on it's on its what it will produce what it will deliver you buy a farm because you expect a certain amount of corn or soybeans or cotton or whatever it may be to be to come your way every year and you decide how much you pay based on how much you think the asset itself will deliver over time and those are the assets that appeal to me and charlie now there's some logical follow-on to that if you buy that farm and you really think about how many bushels of corn how many bushels of soybeans will produce how much do i have to pay the tenant farmer how much do i have to pay in taxes and so on you can make a rational calculation and the success of that investment will be determined in your own mind by whether it meets your expectations as to what it delivers logically you should not care whether you get a quote on that farm a day later or a week later a month later or a year later we feel the same way about businesses when we buy this car or we buy lubrizol or whatever we don't run around getting a quote on it every week and say you know is it up or down or anything like that we look to the business we feel the same way about securities when we buy marketable security we don't care if the stock exchange closes for a few years so when we look at berkshire we are looking at what we think can be delivered from the productive assets that we own and how we can utilize that capital in acquiring