저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
Cramer는 시장을 AI 데이터센터(인프라 과잉투자 우려에도 엔비디아·마이크론·AMD 등 강세 지속), 둔화된 실물경제(고용·운송·주택·소매 약세), 투기적 소형주(양자컴퓨팅·원자력·플라잉카 등 무실적 종목)의 세 경제로 나눠 설명했다. AI 대형주는 현금이 많아 버블이 아니라고 보고, 투기 종목 거품 해소가 필요하다고 주장했다. 실물경제 회복을 위해 다수의 금리 인하가 필요하다고 언급했다. 금은 강세이며 재정적자와 희소성 때문에 상승 여력이 있다고 했다.
다듬은 글
[ I'm trying to teach little education. Call me 1800 743 CBC. Tweet me at Jim Kramer. We have three economies right now. Not one, not two, but three. Two of those are booming, although one shouldn't be. And the third one is hurting badly, and it needs help right now. Of course, when you look at the averages with the Dow dipping 1.2 two points today.
The the S&P gaining.58%, the NASDAQ jumping 1.12%. You can't see it because all three groups are mixed together. That's why tonight I'm going to break them down for you. The first and the most exciting is everything connected to artificial intelligence in the data center. We are constantly being told that this is a bubble, an accident waiting to happen.
Ever since the launch of Chat GBT in late 2022, the data center's buildout's been responsible for 75% of the S&P 500 returns, 80% of its earnings growth, 90% of capital spending growth. Thank you, Michael Seblas, chairman and market of market and investment strategy for JP Morgan asset and wealth management for that for calculating those for us.
The bears want to throw freezing cold water on the whole AI complex, which is why they constantly compare to the end of the dot era. I hate that analogy. The heavy hitters in this business, think Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Dell, Micron, AMD, Microsoft, Qualcomm, uh, Oracle, and of course, Nvidia, all have incredibly deep pockets.
Open AI is a little more opaque, but they've had no trouble raising money. Oracle might be overspending on data centers. I would argue it definitely is, but worst case, they can sell some stock and offer a whole lot of corporate bonds. And remember, they have a tremendous track record. All these companies have been criticized for spending on AI like drunken sailors.
There's a cottage industry of bears who spent the last couple of years urging you couple of years urging you to short these stocks not to sell but short especially the biggest short of all Nvidia and they never stop even though they've been wrong every step of the way. I question how they stayed in business.
I've been saying you either believe in the fourth industrial revolution as described by Nvidia CEO Jensen Wong or you don't. The Bears don't believe it. Could they be right? Of course. But I've been telling people to just buy Nvidia since I named my dog after the company when the stock was just under $4.
And now it's at 189 bucks. So far, it's paid much more to be a believer. That goes double on a day like today when Micron rallied nearly 6%, Dell gained 9%, and AMD jumped over 11% when data center orders and accelerating growth rates. Those are like takeovers. As for the comparison with the dotcom collapse, most of the companies that went under back then had no earnings and little revenue and a lot of them were dishonest.
Their stocks traded on page views. Nearly everyone involved with the AI data center story makes real money. There there's no real basis for comparison. I know that because I ran money in the year 2000. My hedge fund finished the year up 36%. Why? Because we shorted everything in sight. We knew that these companies were going lower.
So I can tell you the AI stocks look nothing like those. I know one when I see one. Those had no earnings, very little sales, and bad balance sheets. The second economy, that's the so-called real economy, which is kind of not so hot. We lack economic data because of federal furlows. But the reliable Carile Group just put out a survey showing that hiring's really slowed down.
We know from street research that freight has just gotten softer, a great indicator of the future. FedEx caught a downgrade. Housing has slowed as mortgage applications have gotten weak, even as interest rates have come down. Retail sales are not great, especially if they're related to housing, and much are.
Industrial numbers are slowing. Autos seem like they're about to roll over along with used cars. Travel and leisure finally seems to be slowing. Now, of course, their pockets are strength in the real economy. Banks are still lending and have surprisingly solid credit numbers. Small and mediumsiz businesses are doing well.
Another surprise, but all sorts of big companies are struggling. Even the once safe consumer packaged goods stocks see that seem to dominate the new lowest. More on that later. Then there's a third economy. It's the speculative economy. This actually looks like the end of the dotcom era. And I do hope that this economy runs out of steam before it drags down the entire market.
The bears love to invoke the year 2000 to condemn the AI stocks. But like I explained earlier, the AI stocks have very little in common with the hundreds of dotcoms that got wiped out back then. Instead, it's the speculative stocks that remind me of the dotcom era. A group of companies with no earnings to speak of that need to raise money to stay afloat.
Now, we see these in nuclear power or crypto or quantum computing stocks. They these have all been bit up furiously by retail investors. Stocks like Ollo or Regetti Computing. I I I think they're too high. That's the fault of retail, though. I fear we're at the cusp of some gigantic equity offerings for some some kinds of these companies.
We got one on Monday from an also ran quantum company called Quantum Computing, and another one today from Joby Aviation, the flying car company. It offered 30.5 million shares of new stock at 16.85 85 per share. It closed up from the deal, 17.37, but way down from the nearly $19 price of yesterday's close.
That's brutal and very 2000ish. These speculative companies will all need institutional money. But because their stocks reward on no real volume thanks to retail buyers, the big institutions won't want to touch them unless they're offered at big discounts. And even then, don't count on them to hang on to their stock for long.
They'll be banging them out, making a couple of making a buck here and buck there. I think that the speculative part of the economy needs to run out of gas. It needs to burn off the froth. I wish the bears would just go after these names instead of constantly harking on Nvidia or now AMD. I mean, come on.
Sure, there's gold up on a spike of calamitous buying. I'm the wrong guy to say it's a red flag, though, as I've been a gold bug for decades, and to me, it's finally going to where it has to go. Scarcity of gold, abundance of federal debt say it all. Stick around. We're going to hear from Magniko Eagle, my favorite gold miner later in the show.
Put it all together, the first economy, AI, is the fourth industrial revolution. And while there might be periodic overbuilds, previous industrial revolutions tended to burn out only when there was too much debt layered on. That's what happened to the railroads in the 19th century. People started laying track everywhere using borrowed money.
Most of these companies went under. That's when you need to start worrying. But the hyperscalers, except for Oracle, have so much cash there's nothing to be concerned about at this point. The second economy, the real economy, needs multiple rate cuts definitely to save it because employment may be running on empty for all.
We know the third economy, other than Palunteer, which actually has earnings but is incredibly overvalued, although I think it could still go higher. This speculative cohort has to be stopped before its froth overwhelms everything else. I want the bears to direct their wrath and our on these stocks, not the companies with great balance sheets and very long-term records of of track tracks of success that seem to be ignored entirely.
Here's the bottom line. If these speculative stocks that are the real bubbles, not the AI place, yet you never know if you listen to the bears, they conflate them all. As I say in how to make money in any market, these people aren't there to help you anyway. So, please stop taking them so darn seriously.
Let's go to Josh in Vermont, please. Josh. Hey, Jim. I just wanted to start off by thanking you for giving me the confidence to divest from my mutual fund holdings. Well, thank you. Thank you. Now, remember, I do think that 50% of your money should be put in in uh in index funds and only and then 50% stocks.
I am a little more concerned with that, but I I want you to take control of your money. Absolutely. Great. Yeah. No, it's definitely turned it into a much higher performing per portfolio. Excellent. That's great. But let's not be greedy. Go ahead. How can I help? Yep. So, with the recent pullback in Sport Raider, I was looking to start a position.
Do you think the rise in prediction markets um is uh a threat to the fundamentals or is it a good? No. No, I don't. I think that the fundamentals are good here. I do think that there's a general belief that I get now when I go out talking about my book that people feel that there's too much gambling.
And that does have me worried because that's an existential threat. I don't think they can do much to it, but I'm hearing that chatter way too often. Thank you for the kind words. It's the speculative stocks that are the bubbles in this market. Please, not the AI plays, but you wouldn't know the bears.
They want to take down the big guys and they're leaving the small stuff that's gone up way too much in retail buying alone. They're not helping us at all. Make money tonight. Coreweave has bounced back in a big way over the past month on the heels of flurry of great AI deals and I'm checking in with the company CEO to see if there's room to run.
Then with all the bubble talk going on, the best thing we can do is check in on the charts and gold has been on a tear in recent weeks. I'm sitting down with the top Rico Eagle Mines to see how the company stands to benefit from the rally to record highs. So stay with framework. .
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