저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Microsoft 시총 5조 달러 도달 전망, AI 수요가 시장 추정치를 15~20% 과소평가 중이며 Capex는 약 30% 과소평가됨. 나스닥 24,000~25,000 목표 유지, AI 강세장 2~3년 지속 주장. 애플은 구글 Gemini 파트너십과 중국 체크 데이터(기대치 5~10% 상회)를 근거로 대형 아웃퍼폼 전망.
다듬은 글
All right, we're back on the belltech earnings kickoff in just a few weeks. Our next guest says it will be a popcorn moment for AI. Joining me now, Wed Bush's Dan Ives. It's good to see you. I don't think anybody is really surprised to hear you say that given how bullish you've been. Is there a name that you're most bullish about of all the companies that you cover and people are so used to hearing you speak about?
Scott, I'd say look about 30% of the deals have been accelerated on the Microsoft side. I think that continues to be when I look at Azure and where they are in AI. I mean that that's why I believe Microsoft, you know, is trend toward a $5 trillion market cap. But that that's the one to me this quarter that sticks out front and center and looking and that's bullish for just use cases what we're seeing across the board as Nadell is sort of leading the charge.
$5 trillion market cap. So I'm actually kind of surprised that of all the names that are out there, Microsoft is is the one that you've chosen. Um, sure the stocks performed quite well, but it hasn't performed the best of the group. Why? I think Street is underestimating what this demand looks like.
I mean, look, I could say, you know, 6 months ago it was Alphabet, right? And that sort of I think caught up a bit, even though we continue to be very bullish in that, but I think it really just comes down to like what we're seeing in the field from all the partners from these cloud accelerations. Street is underestimating the hyperscaler demand and that goes for Google that goes for Amazon goes for Microsoft and I think that when I look at next year you're I think ultimately underestimating numbers across the board for tech by 15 20% and underestimating cap X by probably 30%.
That is why we feel it's a get the popcorn out movement for tech stocks. But you don't you don't feel like you're overestimating anything. And I know you talk about these, you know, the popcorn moment. I think some people fear that people are eating too much cotton candy, right? The big sugar high. You you heard more of that.
It was It was Ken Griffin talk about a sugar high um this week. Do you as an analyst, do you think you're going to be able to identify when when things look like they actually have gone gone too far? Yeah, look, that that's my job, right? I mean that's why like I travel around the world talking to customers talking more customers later today is trying to understand what the demand curve looks like what the use cases look like even on software names like MongoDB Snowflake of course Messi of AI Palunteer and others but that's what we're focused on and as we continue to still see it accelerate and the demand plays out to me that's why we stay pound the table sort of bullish going into year end we've talked about NASDAQ 24 to 25,000 and that continues to sort of be our view.
Still two to three years left in this tech bull market where we are in this AI cycle and you don't look at any of these circular deals so to speak and raise an eyebrow in in any way wondering whether it all really is going to lead to the promised land. Look, it's a great question. I get like some of the concerns out there, you know, especially someone like myself with covered tech stocks back in the '90s.
The difference here is that it's the use cases and ultimately the buildout that's the validation moment. And when you look at some of these deals, I think it's just laying the foundation for the fourth industrial revolution. But when you look at OpenAI, for every dollar they put in Nvidia in AMD, they're going to get 12, 15, $17 in revenue.
And I think that's why I'm not concerned about it because this is you're building really the foundation for enterprise and consumers over the coming you know decade and that's why overall in tech as it goes into the second third fourth derivative across chips software autonomous the grid right I mean names like a gnova and others you know nebus I think that speaks to our view the ripple effects going to be massive here in tech
I may have said this to you I said it the other day and I can't remember if it was directly to you. Apple feels like the afterthought in in all this again. I mean, the stock has had an actually a really nice move. No one's really talking about it much, but it's on the precipice of a new closing high,
right? The the first in fact since December of 2024. What happens from here? And and and why? I think it's going to be a massive outperformer, Apple. I mean that's why we've stayed with it despite obviously them not being on the outside looking in when it comes to AI. It's for two reasons. One is that Google Gemini partnership.
I think that's going to be the game changer for Apple. That's going to get them into the AI game and and that's very significant in terms of the biggest install base in the world. The two is that look numbers going to move up because look what's happened. China from all of our checks will be in Asia next week.
I mean it's trending what 5 10% above expectations. That's not factored in. And it goes back to like the last few months, right? I mean, the streets been extremely bearish on it. You're starting to see a little more positive. I continue to think New York City cab driver is bearish on Apple. That's a good thing relative to what I think is a stock just starting this next phase of acceleration.
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