저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Fed의 인플레 억제 성과는 과장됐고, 헤드라인 CPI는 3% 초반에서 바닥을 찍고 다시 상승 중이며 근원 물가도 5% 수준으로 잘 안 내려간다. 유가와 원자재 반등, 달러 고점 통과 전망. 재정적자 확대와 높은 부채 이자로 장기금리가 6~8%까지 오를 수 있고 Fed는 결국 QE로 복귀할 것. 국가부채 이자 비용은 2025년 말 연 1조 달러, 이후 더 증가해 국방비를 넘어설 것이라 주장.
다듬은 글
a lot of people think that the FED has been successful in reducing inflation because you know it went from 9 down to three we'll complete the journey right because we're you know we're almost there but we're actually miles away because the main reason that you saw that big drop from 9 to three was a collapse of oil prices and other commodity prices that was basically brought about by a surge in the dollar where currency Traders were starting to price in all the rate hikes so the FED actually already got all the bang for the rate hike Buck now oil prices are headed back up we're back above $81 a barrel today headed higher other commodity prices as well the dollar has peaked I think and is declining so a headline CPI probably has bottomed out in the low 3es and now it's headed back up meanwhile if you look at the core which is what the FED claims is more important anyway that's still around five and the decline in the core is far less than the decline in headline I mean it's barely gone down despite the fact that we've moved interest rates from zero to five and a half so if if you know the terminal rate is you know 5 and a quarter I mean 5 and 3/4 6 that's not much from where we are now and so why would that actually do anything when we haven't haven't seen a meaningful Decline and also people forget that these rate hikes are in and of themselves price hikes because it's the price of credit the price of borrowing and so every business that has debt is now having to pay more to service that debt whether it's your landlord who's got a mortgage a commercial mortgage that's resetting or it's a business that has borrowed money to purchase plan or equipment and has interest rates to pay that's just like labor costs or raw material costs it's another cost of doing business that is rising and so businesses then try to pass on those higher costs to their end consumer with higher prices so as higher interest rates continue to work their way through the cost structure you know you've got more upward pressure so I don't I don't see how the FED has really accomplished much of and also if you think about the way rate hikes are supposed to reduce inflation and pal will admit this when he talks they're supposed to reduce aggregate demand by making it more expensive to borrow so that people will borrow less and they'll spend less and that'll you know slow the economy the way they describe it but none of that is happening credit card debt is at an all-time record high the government budget deficits are skyro rocketing you know they we're on a run rate now of north of $2 trillion a year in deficit spending and we're not even technically in a recession yet I mean normally when you're in a recession the deficits double or triple and so but they're already enormous and so even though the FED has been making credit more expensive it hasn't slowed down demand for borrowing consumers just are paying the higher prices borrowing the money anyway and spending it so all the that spending is still driving prices higher so I don't think def fed has made any Headway at all but that's why the whole thing is ridiculous because when they say 2% they actually mean 4% because if we measured prices today the way we did in the 1970s 2% would be 4% and in fact all the years where the FED claimed we didn't have enough inflation which was all Bs to begin with because it was below its 2% Target and we needed more inflation we were never really below that Target we were above it the whole time it's just that they were measuring it improperly and the reason they did that was because they wanted to justify printing all this money to stimulate you know the economy and to finance deficit spending and you know to take the politicians Off The Hook from having to make the difficult political choices that may have jeopardized their reelection because absent the FED printing all this money and keeping interest rates artificially low politicians would have had to cut spending and and so that means that they risk losing the votes of the people who were losing their money uh and so nobody had to do this because we were able to create all this inflation but now the inflation chickens have come home to roost and uh you know this is a huge huge problem that's it's insolvable and is going to get worse and ultimately what's going to happen if the deficit spending continues which it will the FED is going to have to choose uh between a massive increase in long-term interest rates far beyond what we've already seen I mean we're at you know what 18year highs or something like that 16year highs uh the yields on the 10e you know out to 30 years are you know 4.2 is but if these deficits continue and the FED continues with quantitative tightening these yields are going to move up to 6% 8% I mean they're going to go substantially higher and of course that's going to have a profound effect on the financial sector on real estate I mean the whole economy is ultim going to collapse when we get a return to those type of rates in fact everybody believes that we're going to go back to the really low rates that we had for more than a decade that's never going to happen but not only are we not going back down to those super low rates we're actually going to historically High rates I right now they're not even average they're still below average but I think what the FED is going to end up doing to prevent that from happening is reversing this quantitative tightening program that has so far shrunk to balance sheet you know close to 8 trillion H it was almost 9 trillion at the peak so we're getting close to a trillion dollar decline in the balance sheet but with these deficits the way they're going the fed's going to reverse and go back to QE and the balance sheet is going to explode in fact if you look at interest now interest payments on the n debt they've gone from a few hundred billion a year to 7 800 billion I think right now interest on the national debt is the third biggest expense first Medicare then Social Security then interest on the debt interest on the debt is bigger than National Defense you can believe that as big as defense is interest on the debt is di bigger but interest is growing really exponentially because not only do we have to pay the extra interest on the two trillion year that we're borrowing more than 2 trillion but every year let's say $1 trillion worth of debt matures and needs to be rolled over well it's maturing with a coupon of maybe five basis points 20 basis points maybe up to 100 150 basis points depending on the maturity but most of it is real short term most of the paper that's maturing uh the FED borrowed the money a year ago you know two years ago well where were the rates back then they were practically zero now they're five and so as all this debt matures and has to be refinanced at you know five plus you know if they want to do it with you know six month 30-day one year right if they want to go all the way out 10 years well then you know but it's still in the force compared to where it is now so the cost of skyrocketing I think that by the end of the year we'll be at about a trillion dollars a year in net interest payment and probably by the end of next year will be at two and I think interest on the national debt will then be the single largest expenditure of the nation bigger than Medicare and Social Security and in a few more years it'll be bigger than all those combined right because what what happens if the national debt gets to 40 trillion and interest rates go to 10% that's $4 trillion a year in interest I mean we're going to be at at 40 trillion national debt in a few years we're at we're at 30 almost 33 trillion now we're adding more than 2 trillion a year so in three or four years we're at 40 trillion and by then all that low yielding debt will be gone and it will be replaced by much higher yielding debt so maybe it won't be 10% but let's say it's 7 or 8% you're still looking at $3 trillion a year in in in in in interest payments I mean this is unbearable we can't afford it obviously something's going to break before we get to that point
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