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Hello. Today we are going to talk about a news that may blow your mind and force you to think about the future of India. We are talking about renowned billionaire investor and Chairman of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Ramdev Agarwal, who has made a big prediction about Sensex. He says that Sensex will touch 1.5 lakh by 2030 and 3 lakh by 2035.
Can this really happen ? Stay tuned to find out. I am with us, Rohit Kaushik is with you and you are watching Mani. Ramdev Agarwal ji has recently said in an exclusive interview that India's leading equity index Sensex will touch the 1.5 lakh mark by 2030 and 3 lakh mark by 2035 on the basis of long term economic momentum and market resilience.
His predictions are based on historical audience data and the power of compounding. He says that if you look at the history of the last 45 years, the market has grown at a CGR i.e. Compounding Annual Growth Rate of 15%. Which means it doubles every 5 years. Based on this, he believes that if today the Sensex is at 80,000, then in the next 5 years it will become ₹1.5 lakh.
Recalling his early days, Ramdev said, when I bought my first stock in 1980, Sussex was at 100 and today it is at 80000, that is, 800 times up, that is, at 16% CAGR. This is our history which is telling us what will happen next? But here the question may be coming in your mind that how will this happen?
It continues to move upwards. Will it be easy to climb this high in the future? Wo n't the climb get harder the higher you go ? Ramdev Agarwal's answer to this is that the world is also moving upwards. This shows that the world economy which was worth 25 trillion dollars in 1995 has now become worth about 115 trillion.
The world is growing at a rate of 5% and it is estimated that the global economy will reach $250 trillion by 2040. India will get a share of about $10 trillion in this incremental growth in the next 25 years. Because of this MAC backdrop, Sensex will remain a compounding machine. Agarwal believes that investors should think long-term and prepare themselves accordingly.
They say you have to look to 2035 when picking stocks. You won't recognize the market in 2035. This is going to be so big. On this he gives a powerful example of Reliance Industries and says see how compounding works in the long term. Like Reliance was a ₹400 crore company in 2003. Today it has become a company worth ₹ lakh crores.
This is where the magic of compounding comes into play, which has the power to change the future. Ramdev Agarwal ji has also shared four big investment themes for the next decade. Meaning where the buzz is visible right now. Like the first Quick Commerce. Quick commerce is taking India by storm. Because everyone wants groceries and other products delivered at home.
Who wants to carry a bag and buy things? According to him, this opportunity is worth one trillion dollars. The second is the capital market boom. The capital market is booming due to financialization of savings. Talking about the possible launch of NSC IPO, he says that it could be huge as it is the mother of all capital market institutions.
Third Energy Transition. He says that solar and wind companies were once on the verge of bankruptcy and now look at them, this sector is also a big opportunity. Fourth is manufacturing. He says that the government's emphasis on promoting manufacturing is increasing the enthusiasm of investors in this sector.
Agarwal says that he is seeing a lot of momentum in this sector where state governments are themselves inviting industries and factories to be set up. This is a trend that started in Gujarat but has now spread across the country. When he was asked why the market is not falling and why there is buying in every fall ?
So Agarwal ji attributed this to domestic inflow. He says that Indian investors have been continuously buying since 2020. We are continuously getting inflows of Rs 50 to 100 billion and this inflow does not allow it to go down too much. On the ownership structure in his market, Ramdev ji says that the promoter block is around 50%.
FIS is around 17% and the remaining 33% is DIS, retail and institutions. FIS has the option. They can go to Korea, China, Russia. But these domestic investors continue to be buyers. Agarwal ji argues that this is a sign of India's maturity. This is what happens when you become a developed country. By 2047, promoters will reduce to 5 to 10% and then they will give momentum to the market.
Our economy was very weak during the 1980s. About 97% of the people were below the poverty line and now only 20 to 30% of the people are below the poverty line. Today we are self-dependent on food and forex. He says just imagine if you are a poor man and your son becomes a CA then what all he can achieve.
We have the power to defeat the world. There is no corporation in the world where there are no Indians. Despite all the uncertainties, Ramdev Agarwal ji remains firm on his belief. Overall, they see the market growing at that 15% rate and the index doubling in the next 5 years. This analysis by Ramdev Agarwal helps us understand the economic potential of India and the importance of long-term investment in the stock market.
What is your view on the Indian stock market? Do you also agree with Ramdev Agarwal ji or not? Tell us in the comment section where you see the market in the next few years ? Please excuse me for now. I will meet you again with some new issue. Hello.
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