저자: VishalSharma · 외국인
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BlackRock CEO 래리 핑크가 주식시장 최대 20% 하락 가능성을 경고했으나, 트럼프가 75개국 상호관세 90일 유예를 발표해 글로벌 증시가 급반등했다. 중국은 예외로 관세 125%가 부과되어 무역전쟁 우려는 남아 있다. 나스닥 약 12%, 일본 약 9%, 대만 약 10% 상승. 중국은 디플레이션 상태(CPI -0.1%, PPI 29개월 연속 하락)로 제시됨. 금은 3100달러 위에서 2% 상승. 인도 니프티는 22,400 수준, 핑크는 18,000 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Hello, you are watching Mani and I am Vishal Sharma with you. Look, the decline in the Indian stock market was continuing but in the midst of it, such a news came after which the fear deepened further. What actually happened was that the CEO of BlackRock is Mr. Larry Fink. He said that the market could fall by up to 20%.
However, after this news, the situation changed overnight, after which Mr. Trump said that we are withdrawing all the reciprocal tariffs that have been imposed on more than 75 countries. A 90-day pause has been imposed, but China has been kept as an exception and a tariff of 125% has been imposed on it.
Now how do we combine these two scenarios ? We will understand this issue in simple language. Our senior economic journalist is sir and our colleague is Praveen Sharma sir. Let us understand the whole matter from this. Sir, the CEO of BlackRock is saying that the market will fall by the 20s. But the situation changed overnight.
It is being said that a pause has been imposed. There is a break of 90 days. It is being said that India and America may sign a trade deal very soon. So, was he saying about the Indian markets also that Nifty will reach the level of 18,000? Currently it is trading around 22,400. Look, Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, has given a big warning or a major warning regarding the stock markets.
For Nifi, he said it could fall by 20% to ₹18,000. Currently Nifi is at the level of 22,400. While the markets closed yesterday, there is a holiday in Indian markets today. But in the meantime, some big news has come which has suddenly changed the mood of the entire market. The sentiment has changed completely.
The US President suddenly gave a surprise yesterday by stopping the reciprocal tariffs on about 75 countries across the world. He suspended him for the next 90 days. Yes. China was left out. Tariffs on China were further increased to 125% and this has led to a sharp rise in markets across the world.
Whether your Dub JS, whether your NASDC closed up 12%. If you look at the Asian markets, Japan's market is around 9%, Taiwan's is around 10%, so the sentiment of the markets across the world has changed suddenly. As soon as the news of a 90-day break came out. Despite this, some major concerns regarding the markets still remain, which Larry Fick is also pointing out in his report.
Where they are saying that this Nifty can come to 18,000 because see, the uncertainties still remain. Even though this 90-day pause has been imposed by America. The reason for this is that China is a big trading partner of the world. China has trade relations with countries around the world. Now, after America imposing 125% tariff on China and China imposing 84% tariff on America, both the countries have come face to face in this trade war.
How long will this fight last? Yes. In a way, China is in the grip of slowdown and recession. Right now if we look at its consumer price, it has gone down by 0.1%. They were down 7% in February compared to March. Similarly, the Producer Price Index declined by 2.5%, marking the 29th consecutive month of decline.
China is suffering from deflation. In America too, there is continuous talk about slow recession. If America has a trade war with China or a trade war starts between China and America. If a war starts over currency exchange rates, will America be saved from recession or will the recession in China deepen significantly?
These are some big questions that can trouble investors all over the world. You should understand that American companies have huge investments in China. Be it Tesla or other companies, they have investments. China works as a contract manufacturer in China and American companies get their goods manufactured there and then sell them around the world.
Companies around the world do this in China. Yes, Chinese companies will definitely suffer losses. Due to this, other companies around the world may also suffer losses. If the recession deepens, it is sure to have a ripple effect on markets across the world and that can be seen in India as well. In a way, this is what Larry Fink is pointing towards in this entire incident.
Yes, and he said that hardly any investor like Black Rock, who is the CEO, would be prepared for such a huge fall. Sir, they are saying that the Indian stock market has been declining since the end of September last year, which is the peak we have been talking about and this decline has made the investors restless.
More than large caps, they say that small cap and mid cap stocks have declined. As a result, they are also adding SIP, sir. It has also been seen on investments made through SIP. There are signs of SIP ratio decreasing. This could pose a major threat to the Indian markets. But the scenario has changed overnight, sir.
Ah, we will have to see whether the situation will change after that. But let's talk about the figures, Sir, look, I also want to ask you a question, Sir, that even though Trump has taken a U-turn in seven days and has come on the back foot, you were also seen saying that his strategy could be to take two steps forward and one step back, but amidst all this, Sir, there has been a decline of $ lakh crore crore in the global market including America, this is a matter of great concern.
However, the recovery that happened yesterday, the 12th century boom, sir, has increased the valuation of the Indian, sorry, American stock market by Rs 3.1 lakh crore. But look, the problem of Rs 7 lakh crore in seven days, if we adjust this figure, then there will be a loss of that much, sir, that too will have an impact on the economy, not in all ways, of course, that is what the experts are saying again and again that the amount of profit you would have got by imposing these trade barriers, the amount you would have got by imposing tariffs, have you not caused more losses in the markets yet, have the investors, the companies whose valuations, whose market caps have fallen, not suffered that much loss there, how effective is this strategy of the US President, this strategy of America, the Treasury Secretary there said that this was a pre-planned step of ours in which we imposed tariffs and after that countries from all over the world came to the negotiating table with us and were ready to negotiate trade deals and now the same is happening and that is why we have given a 90-day pause in this and this is a part of our strategy, so whether for the US long term or for the 70-75 countries from all over the world Will America be able to do a trade deal with all of them?
America will do it. Countries across the world want that. They are saying that Trump sir is also saying that the tariff will be 10% for those countries which will do the deal. Praveen sir is saying that and even before this we have discussed that Trump sir himself is saying that many countries on which he has imposed reciprocal tariff are eager and are very eager to talk to us, but we will give concessions to those who will come with us, we will shock those who will not stay with us, but we have already given a shock, sir.
125% tariff on China and there is an attempt to give some concessions to all the countries which are more than 75 for 90 days. Now it remains to be seen whether the 90-day period is also extended or not. Sir, uncertainty, as Praveen Sir is saying, still exists. Meanwhile, if we take an update on the commodity market, there is a good rise in gold too, sir.
It is seen trading above $3100 with a gain of 2%. So that's all for today. Similarly, stay with us for all the latest news related to the country, world and business world and keep watching Money.
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