저자: Plain Finance Reborn · 외국인
다듬은 글
Uh, but I think this is a new leg. We spent really over 10 years. Remember, go the first leg of the bull market was 2001 to 2011. Gold went from under 300 to 1900. So, it increased by sixfold, right? Then, it really went sideways from 2011 to 2024. Gold traded between 2000 and maybe 1500, 1700. I mean, it initially pulled back to 1000.
It got to 1050 in 2015. So, it held 1000, went back up, but only made a new high briefly during the 2020 COVID crisis. It poked its head above 2000, but then, you know, it got chopped off and and it went back down. But, that's a huge base that we built around 2000 as a, you know, as a floor now, cuz it was resistance.
It was the ceiling. Now, it's the support. And now, we're just starting another leg, which I think will be at least symmetrical to the prior leg. So, we had the move from under 300 to 1900, consolidation. That was a sixfold increase. If you assume we go up sixfold from 2000, that's $12,000 gold. So, I kind of, at a minimum, I think that that's where we're headed.
But, if we end up having a dollar crisis and a US sovereign debt crisis, we could go a lot higher than that. And um and and I think that there's there's a good chance that that's going to happen. You asked me, "What's driving this?" Uh, it it is the monetary and fiscal policy of the United States, which are disasters.
And in fact, following the weak jobs report that we got today. And by the way, you know, the jobs market has never been this weak outside of a recession. In fact, the last two times you had a labor market as weak as the one we got right now, it was the Great Recession of 2008, 2009 with the financial crisis or 2020 as we were shutting the whole economy down because of COVID.
So, you know, the Fed has been mischaracterizing this labor market. Powell kept saying we have a really strong labor market, we have a really strong market. He was wrong the entire time. We have a weak labor market. And it And you wouldn't even see how much weaker it was if we had honest statistics.
Uh but we don't. But even with the statistics we have, you know, we had outright job decline in June. We lost 13,000 jobs in June. Uh the August number was just plus 22,000. Manufacturing lost 13,000. And the U6 unemployment rate, which is more relevant than the headline rate of 4.3, is 8.1. So, we've got rising unemployment uh and inflation, you know, the Fed said that the labor market was strong, but inflation is weak.
They got it backwards. The labor market is weak, inflation is strong. And I think that's really what's helping to drive the move in gold now and the and down in the dollar is the Fed is about to start cutting rates into rising inflation. And it's hard to imagine when they've done that before because inflation is above their target and rising.
And they're going to cut into that. So, it's the opposite of what they should be doing. Even though the economy is weak, inflation is strong. And that should be the primary mandate is to get inflation back down. But they're going to abdicate that role because of the political pressure uh to try to artificially stimulate the economy, the housing market.
Uh so, gold is going to take off from here. You know, we're we're you know, we're we're basically just left the launchpad. And we got a long way to go. But you know, the whole time that gold was going sideways for three or four months, gold stocks were quietly going up. Gold stocks went up 30-40% while the price of gold traded sideways.
And that's something we haven't seen during the entirety of the bull market. Because the the investors in mining stocks have never believed the rally. They've been skeptical the entire time. They're finally starting to accept the fact that gold's not going to crash. But these gold stocks are not priced for current gold prices, let alone the future gold prices, but at least they're pricing out a crash now.
People accept, okay, gold's going to be around this level, so we got to bid up these stocks cuz they're still really cheap, even though they're up better than 90% on the year. And gold mining stocks are the number one performing sector in the market this year, and they're hardly ever discussed. No one talks about them.
I think Newmont Mining is the number one performing stock in the S&P 500. You know, the only gold stock in the S&P 500, and it's beating all the tech stocks. Yet, probably of all the stocks in the S&P 500, Newmont is probably the one that's the least owned. I actually like the fact that this bull market isn't on anybody's radar.
Because I just assume Wall Street buy into the market later at much higher prices. Um they don't need to get in now. I want my clients to get in now, and I you know, the less competition the better. I just want to get as much, you know, gold mining stocks and silver mining stocks as I can. And the last thing I want is, you know, Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs telling all their clients to buy, right?
Cuz that's going to make it more expensive for my clients. So, the longer they ignore this bull market, the better as far as I'm concerned. Like, I'm in no hurry. I waited plenty of time for this, and I'm in no hurry to speed it up right now. Um but I do look at that as a positive side that nobody's invested.
The public, you know, has no idea. You know, you have one group of people that are still fixated on Bitcoin. Uh and they're buying Bitcoin instead of gold. Uh although Bukele, I just read that he just put $50 million into gold. So, maybe he's figuring out that Bitcoin is the is the wrong way to go. But, you know, it's interesting that Bitcoin is barely up today.
And Bitcoin is more than 15% below its peak priced in gold from 2021. So, 4 years Bitcoin's been losing value relative to gold despite all the marketing hype surrounding Bitcoin. All the all the ETFs that were established, you know, uh the NFTs, uh the Super Bowl ads, the celebrity endorsements, Donald Trump and the strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and the Bitcoin Tsar, and making Bitcoin the American the the capital of the world, right?
All that pump, and they can't even get Bitcoin to go up. So, what does that tell you? But, what is going up is the one thing that's not getting any hype, and that's and that's gold. And now silver, you know, going up as well, but not not into record territory. So, these gold stocks I think are still extremely cheap.
Um they could double again from here, and I I don't think they'd be expensive, especially considering that if the gold stocks double from here, gold's going to be a lot higher. So, it's like they still wouldn't have caught up to where they should be. So, we got a long way to go in the mining stocks.
In fact, you know, in April of this year, I kind of aggravated some of the guys at Schiff Gold because I put out this report that said the best way to buy gold, and it was to buy the gold mining stocks. And I was telling my clients for the first time not to buy gold. And gold was around 3,200, 3,300.
And I said, "Look, I'm a gold bull. I love gold, but these gold stocks are so cheap that it doesn't make any sense to buy gold above ground. Just buy it while it's still in the ground because it's so cheap." And while gold went sideways for all those months, the gold stocks were soaring. And I I they're not as cheap as they were, obviously, but they're still very cheap.
And I still think people should be buying gold stocks and gold now, uh and physical silver and any silver miner stock. So, you know, Schiff Gold is my gold company. What you want to don't do. There's so many, unfortunately, shysters in the gold industry. Uh and they rip off their their their customers by pushing them into these numismatics or collectible coins, a fake numismatics, proof sets.
Uh you know, odd odd weighted, you know, coins you've never heard of. And they do that because the markups are 30, 40, 50% or more. Uh and so you need the price of gold to go up 50% just to break even. So, why buy gold at 3,600 if, you know, you you need 5,000 just to get out even? So, at Schiff Gold, you know, we're marking up gold like 1%.
So, if you bought gold yesterday, you could sell it back today and make a profit. Right? So, you that you don't want to get ripped off. So, going to Schiff Gold, you're going to get the best prices, you're going to get just bullion. Uh we're not going to try to push you into something that makes us money.
We're going to sell you what you need to make yourself money. Uh my my goal is to make a little money on volume, not on ripping people off.
Comments 0