This bull market is not over, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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Siegel은 S&P500 강세장이 아직 끝나지 않았다고 보며 연속 상승 흐름과 견조한 경제지표(GDP 추정 2.1%, 12개월 선행 이익 상향)를 근거로 든다. 단기 조정 가능성은 인정하나 주식은 장기·중기 투자자에게 매력적이라 본다. 금리 인하 시점보다 이익 성장이 시장에 더 중요하다고 주장하며, 금은 장기 실질수익률이 낮아 장기 투자 대상으로 선호하지 않는다고 밝힌다.

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01. let's get reaction uh to the market close Jeremy seagull professor of Finance at the Warton School uh of business and chief Economist at Wisdom Tree very good to see you professor as always long time no speak I I I just wonder whether you see a little bit of a close today it's only one day's close of course and you think yeah that that makes sense because we're on track whether we look at a 10% upe date on the S&P 500 or one statistic that jumps out to me we're on track for 5 months in a row of gains we do a little bit of a p but well I wouldn't be surprised although I I still think the momentum is there well I I I still think this bull move is strong and has a ways to go uh yeah I mean you could have a little Corrections under the way it kind of head fakes but uh you know I I think uh I think the news is strong I I think the inflation is going to be uh being reduced uh I saw a GDP estimate uh by uh the Atlantic fed just came out after the durable goods at 2.1% exactly the target of the fed this year um so the economy is not showing signs of weakness and surprisingly uh 12month earnings forward instead of usually they they they go down as the year goes on because they're often over estimatics in many circumstances so I still think yes we could have a two even a 5% reaction but I don't think this uh this bull market is over well well let's talk about inflation and what of course that then feeds back into rates in the market because obviously we get PC on Friday when the market will be closed well earlier today on sork on the sheet sork on the street excuse me it's been a long day uh Professor SE I was talking to James Gorman let's hear his take on rates I would be surprised if they move in the first half of this year I would not be totally shocked if they don't do anything for the rest of the year Professor seagull no rate cuts at all this year do you think that's possible what would it do to markets it is possible uh Torsten slock is another Economist who came out with that a couple weeks ago and u i I think it's unlikely I I think it's against the odds but very honestly what's more important for the market is the state of the economy and earnings going forward to whether the FED lowers it in June ju July or even December uh as the case may be now I still think the odds are definitely that they're going to lower it but I think people are beginning to realize that they're going to be buying stocks for earnings more than what the timing of the Fed rate cuts are is actually going to be so if if we step back whether it's in in the short term and the S&P is up 10% this year despite rate cut expectations coming down significantly or or longer term since the sort of October uh 22 lows the rates not really matter and uh multiples for stocks will kind of ignore rates altogether no multiples they they matter uh I think we're looking at 21 times forward earnings uh on the SNP now you know that is slightly Rich I've often argued that about 20 I thought is the equilibrium uh now of course if you take out the the mag s you're down to about a 17 and 18 which is you know more reasonable uh you know I I still think we have a bifurcated Market uh here and that doesn't necessarily mean it's bad because those stocks have generated the bulk of the growth of the earnings um but when I look overall at the market I say no it's not cheap but it certainly is is is not something that I think any long-term investor should avoid and particularly even an intermediate term investor I think is going to be rewarded I wanted to get your take on gold which of course has broken out to highs recently at the same time of course Bitcoin and cryptos surged once again are those sensible Investments at the moment well the long-term reg return on gold um and uh is 0.9% after inflation um and that's over 200 years so you can certain get a spurt in the short run but in the long run it really it pales with respect to almost all the other assets it's a store of value um and uh with a little bit of gain beyond that now given all that you know I was I was uh really excited about gold early when inflation started and it didn't move very much and everyone went to bitcoin and I saw to said yeah you know what the Millennials new gold is Bitcoin they're not interested in Gold Much Anymore um and uh it was really a disappointing investment at this beginning of the in uh of this inflation uh uh period but I think it's in a catchup mode right now but I really am not a fan of gold as as a long-term investment