April jobs report will give Fed policy cover: Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel

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결론: 시장은 아직 초중반을 넘어섰으나, 연준의 긴축 전환과 인플레이션 누적이 향후 큰 조정을 부를 수 있다는 경고. 고용 지표: 4월 고용 수치가 낮은 것은 수요 부족이 아니라 기업이 인력을 구하기 어려운 탓이며, 실업수당이 구직을 막는다는 대통령 주장에는 동의하지 않음. 임금이 0.7% 크게 올랐는데도 노동자를 충분히 끌어들이지 못했다고 지적. 인플레이션 전망: 다음 주 소비자·생산자물가 지표가 중요하며, 5~6월에 재정 부양에 따른 인플레이션이 나타날 것으로 봄. 향후 3~4년간 누적 물가가 현재보다 약 20% 오를 것으로 예상. 통화·재정 정책: 시장에선 재정이 과도하다는 우려가 있으며, 이로 인해 연준이 임금·물가 상승에 대응해 긴축해야 할 상황이 올 수 있음. 이 보고서는 연준이 긴축을 미루게 해 준 것이라 '심판의 날'을 늦출 뿐이라는 입장. 시장 전망: 올해 하반기 연준이 물러서기 시작하면 시장에 파급이 있을 것으로 예상. 주식은 장기적으로 나쁘고, 채권은 최악, 실물자산(real assets)이 최선이라고 언급. 섹터 전략: 재정 부양으로 소비자 지출이 늘 경제민감주·경기순환주(외식, 여행 등)에 머무르겠다고 밝힘. 기술주는 금리 하락 시 약간 반등할 수 있으나, 금리가 다시 오른 점을 언급.

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01. to begin our conversation wharton professor jeremy siegel last with us earlier this early earlier last month and said we were in the third or fourth inning of the boom professor good to see you again where are we today the market is what the s p is up three almost four percent since then new records for the dow new records for the s p have we jumped ahead a couple of innings what do you make of everything yeah yeah yeah maybe in the sixth now uh that was quick i mean my my interpretation is these low numbers really show the difficulty of firms trying to get jobs um not that there isn't enough demand out there for for jobs and and yeah and i disagree with the president uh that the unemployment insurance is not having some effect on on on not taking the jobs so i think that and take a look at that that wage number which i think pete also talked about i mean seven tenths of one percent is a huge increase in in in way one of the biggest increases we had and we still couldn't induce enough workers so i mean i'm really looking on next tuesday and wednesday we're going to get inflation picture on consumer and producers i think those are very important because i i really think that you know for the month of uh may and june um we're going to be getting to see the inflation that's going to come from this uh prodigious humanitarian physical now you're talking about exactly what i was talking to to listen about about this notion which i'm hearing from people market participants today in the in the build up to preparing for for the show that forget of all this talk about monetary policy being too loose it's fiscal policy that's too loose and that's going to lead to a problem for the fed that it doesn't want to have to deal with and that is talk about wages having to go up to entice people back into the workforce a job market that is still hurting tremendously which is why it doesn't want to do anything but then inflation starts to rise wages start to rise it becomes a more permanent problem and the fed has to act even though it doesn't want to act and that's bad for stocks eventually it's bad for stocks but you know this this report delays in my opinion the the so-called day of reckoning uh it gives the the fed excuse oh no we got to go longer with uh this expansionary policy i mean there will be a day of reckoning down the road but then wait wait wait no let me let me stop you for a second how then have we gone from the third or fourth inning to the sixth in a month then if this is not a problem then no i mean i i i i still i i think we're moving along i think later this year we're going to get that that uh really fed pull back the market's going to ripple and that's scared and then also say where am i going to go you know i did say i believe in the next three four years cumulatively we're going to have 20 inflation prices going to be 20 higher three years from now four years from now than they are today and that you know it could mean stock prices wages consumer prices and the bonds are going to be the worst thing real assets are going to be the best thing um and and you're absolutely right the fiscal policy that's what's putting the money in people's pockets is is the government the fed is creating it and putting it right into people's pockets to spend um and that's that's what's gonna uh really explode onto the economy second half of this year so then that tells me that i want to stay there but they will have to pull back but then again people are gonna say where am i gonna go but but that tells me that i excuse me i want to stay in economically sensitive and cyclical names restaurants and travel and all this stuff where people are going to spend that money you just talked about exactly i would stay there i i mean we get a little bounce back in in tech i think because yields did fall down although you know they did come back up professor relief forgive me you