저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 조정 후 여름 전에 S&P500이 4400까지 오를 것이며, 에너지 섹터가 가장 유망하다는 낙관론. 거시/금리: 옐런 발언은 적절하나 이런 날은 노이즈이며, 대공황 이후 12개월밖에 안 된 상황에서 중앙은행이 이렇게 빨리 긴축하는 전례는 드물다. 향후 금리 인상은 있겠지만 인플레이션 우려로 연준이 급하게 움직일 것이라는 주장은 노이즈로 봄. 시장 전망: S&P500은 여름 전 4400을 향해 상승한 뒤, 200일 이동평균선 부근까지 조정될 가능성. 조정 폭은 현재 7% 수준보다 깊은 약 10% 정도로 예상. 상승 촉매는 인도 코로나 상황 개선에 따른 위험선호 회복. 종목/섹터: 재택·메가캡 성장주(FANG, 디지털 관련)는 기관 비중이 과도하게 높고 경제 재개 시 잘못된 종목이라 하락 위험이 크다고 봄. 반면 경기민감(에피센터) 종목이 기회. 에너지 섹터 전반(매수), 특히 OIH(유전서비스)는 유가가 80달러까지 가면 약 250% 상승 여지 제시. 유가가 68달러를 돌파하면 80달러 도달이 합리적이라 봄. 공급·수요 균형이 10년 만에 가장 좋다고 평가. 개별 기업: 아마존은 3500 부근 고점에서 이중천장 형태로 실패한 것으로 보이며 지지선은 2950 부근. 애플은 실적 대비 주가 반응이 약했고 122달러가 지지선. 출연자 본인은 CVX, SLB, EOG 등 에너지 우량주 보유 언급. 리스크: 금리 인상 우려, 옐런 연준 독립성 관련 발언의 적절성 문제 제기, 기술주 조정 가능성. 출연자 전망: Tom Lee는 여름 중 4400 도달, 이후 10% 조정 후 재상승을 기본 시나리오로 제시.
다듬은 글
let's um get more into today's market action tech so you mentioned before getting wrecked today let's bring in tom lee of fun star global advisors tom great to have you with us especially on a day like today you have been an ardent bull through all of this and rightly so so what did you make of janet yellen's comments and what would it do to your bullish thesis if the fed really started throwing out the notion that rates may not stay this low for for this for as long as we had predicted um i mean i think her comments are appropriate but i you know days like this are noisy um you know we're only 12 months out of a depression i'm not sure in the history of economic monetary policy central banks tighten so quickly after coming out of a depression event um so man i just think you know there is going to be higher rates in the future but talk of inflation triggering the fed to chase that i i think it's noise yeah and tom listen you've been steadfast and i think you're going to continue to be um but is it is it time now to sort of take a reallocation approach in other words karen mentioned that steve has mentioned it you know some of these high flyers have sort of not gone by the wayside but clearly giving a lot back i mean is it time now to readjust and to look at things that have been out of favor now seemingly becoming in favor uh yeah absolutely um you know when we talk to our clients our institutional investors they're more than market weighted in work from home and mega cap growth and fang part of it's liquidity but the market's super crowded in in those names and and they've been awful and they're absolutely the wrong stocks to own if the economy is reopening so you know i think you know we're still in the camp that this s p is going to make a move towards 4 400 first uh before summer and then i think you know as graso points out probably then we can have a correction towards the 200 day but the real bludgeoning is going to take place in that mega cap stay-at-home fang you know digital world complex of stocks and i think the real opportunity is is really in things that are pro-economy or what we call epicenter stocks hey tom when i've favored the chemical names to the point that guy just brought up to the restarting the economy you favored energy names and on the back of oil seeming as though it wants to break out would you be in enp would you be in refiners would you be in services where do you see the opportunities here with all of them being up and services being up the least out of that bunch um yeah interestingly i i think the entire energy complex is a buy um because you know oil the the structurally the industry and also the energy companies are really seeing the best supply demand alignment in more than 10 years and now oil looks like it's really retraced a lot of its decline in and if it breaks through 68 you know then reaching 80 by the summer is is would be pretty reasonable and a group like the oil field services which is at like 190 today it's never been below 450 if oil's at 70 and it's never been below 600 if oil's at 80.
so the group could you know just oih for instance could almost triple up 250 percent and a move to oil that is really in line with the goldman target of 80 oil so i think energy is is really one of the best risk rewards right now but it does tie into the idea that commodities are going to benefit from a reflation move but it's not creating the kind of inflation that the fed needs to react to tom i was wondering if you can uh you know give us a little more nuance uh behind that run to 4 400 and then that pull back down to the 200-day moving average that run to 4 400 is that where the biggest sort of um drawdown in in the in the big cap tech names happens the high flyers the high valuation names and then what happens on that big pullback do we see another another turn rotation into them uh that's right melissa i mean i think it's a tricky moment i think that's why people are seeking protection in the vix because the s p has been laboring um even small caps and only a handful of sectors really look healthy but we also know investors are really cautiously positioned and we also know that companies have delivered guidance that's pretty impressive and especially for some of the cyclical groups and i think once some of the tail risks come off i think right now people are focused on the risk from india and if india sort of starts to see an improvement in the catastrophe both from a health care and an economic perspective diminish then i think it's back to risk on and that's how we propelled at 4 400 and it's not a it's not really you know a level that's uh i mean like a lot of people have smb targets around that i just think it's going to happen mid-year and then clearly it makes sense that we are going to have a some sort of correction this year something deeper than the seven percent we've had and i think a 10 would just touch the 200-day from 4 400.
all right tom always great to speak with you thank you thanks tom lee of funstrat um that call on oil is a tremendous one from tom lee xle of potentially 250 percent if oil does get to 80 so not pricing in right now a recovery to 80 a barrel tim what do you think tom's comment about the structural uh balance in the oil and gas sector is really important and where we haven't been in a long time because oil companies haven't had capex haven't been able to deploy have been able to grow at all costs like they did a decade ago then you had supply disruptions now you've actually got a case where you're going to have demand outstrip uh at least some of the supply dynamics in the short term in other words taking some of the oversupply out of the market if you see continued move in inflation you want to own energy best of breed names talked about oih how about slumberjae and am long so people know i like that name cvx best of breed on the integrateds and then eog to me is really the best of those that are also heavily involved in in the renewables business but best of breed great balance sheet innovative company those are names that have had a good run oih and oil services have really lagged this movement energy so that was the point just made and i would i would agree with that in a world in which tom lee is right guyadami what happens to some of these tech names that have posted actually pretty decent earnings maybe even upside surprises and not done anything in terms of stock moves or gone lower well well the two names you're talking about embedded in there i think is amazon and again kudos to steve but i mean amazon traded right up to the september high of 3500 and change and apparently has failed why do i say apparently just look at the last two days price action classic double top i mean it should find support around 29.50 that's been support before same thing with apple again apple we talked about it the night of earnings that when it was trading 138 i said you know the stock should be a lot higher given this report and i didn't know where it was going to go but it didn't really react and now here we are at levels 122 is support there and then the last thing and the sort of the elephant in the room and i'm storm and get added at by everybody quite frankly you know 10 years ago janet yellen can comment all she wants about interest rates in her current role she shouldn't really be saying anything about interest rates if you think about it that's the gorilla in the room of the 800 pound elephant whatever you want to call it so the fact that she's even commenting to me is problematic but that's me well it's interesting in her sort of a clarification of it she said you know if there's anybody who's sensitive to fed independents it's me if there's anybody who understands fully the implications of actually making the sames in the first place it should be janet yellen and yet here we are you
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