저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
요약 보기
멍거는 자신이 집중 투자로 부유해졌다고 말하며, 10억 달러 규모 자산도 종목 3개에 집중 투자하는 것이 충분히 안전하다고 주장한다. 핵심 근거는 코스트코, 버크셔 해서웨이, 중국 포트폴리오처럼 실패 확률이 거의 0에 가까운 기업들에 집중하는 방식이 합리적이라는 점이다. 그는 고교 대수 수준의 계산으로 3~4개 종목만 보유해도 30~40년 장기 투자 시 충분한 분산 효과가 있다고 설명한다. 분산투자는 잘 모르는 '무지한 투자자(no-nothing investor)'에게 필요한 것이며, 자신이 아는 투자자라면 과도한 분산은 오히려 수익을 해친다고 비판한다. 교수들이 분산투자를 가르치는 것을 허튼소리로 규정한다. 시장이 가끔 확실한 기회를 주는데, 그때는 과감하게 큰 베팅을 해야 한다고 강조한다. 또한 죽은 위인들(예: 애덤 스미스)의 저작에서 배우는 것의 가치를 강조한다. 구체적 가격 목표나 단기 시장 전망은 제시되지 않았으며, 종목 추천보다는 투자 철학에 관한 발언이 중심이다.
다듬은 글
you've had a foundation today with let's say a billion dollars would you be comfortable with it being invested in just three stops well let's take the foundation I'll change your question around so I want to answer it comfortable with a non-diversified portfolio of course I'm well if you say the mongers I care about the mongers the mongers have three stocks maybe look like a Berkshire a little like a Costco we have a block and we lose fund and the rest is gribs and grabs so am I comfortable am I securely Rich you're damn right I am and could other people be yes as comfortable as I am I didn't have a password for all the names in it many of whom these are they never understand or their advisors understand of course they'd be better on what they did what I did but and it's three stocks enough what are the chances that Costco is going to fail what are the chances that Berkshire Hathaway is going to fail what are the chances that we lose portfolio in China is going to fail Chancellor any one of those things happening or almost zero that you answered all three of them are going to fail of course it's going to that's one of the good ideas I had when I was young when I started investing my little piddly savings as a lawyer I tried to figure out how much diversification I would need if I had a 10 Advantage every year of course stocks generally I just worked it out I didn't have any formula I just worked it out of my high school algebra and I realized that if I was going to be there for 30 or 40 years I'd be about 99 sure to do just fine if I never owned more than three stocks you know my average holding period was three or four years and once I'd done that with my little pencil I just I never had a moment believed this baller to actually teach a book a wide diverse of occasion if your diversification was a real who don't know anything Warren calls them no-nothing investors if you're a no-nothing investor of course use it on the average but if you're not I don't know if you're actually capable of figuring out something that'll work better you're just hurting yourselves for looking for 50 when three well somebody's hell one will suffice and you do it right one if you have one cinch what else do you need in life and so the whole idea of the know something investor needs a lot of diversification to think that we're paying these professors to teach is crap they are young and that people think they should be paid by telling us to diversify where it's right it's an idiot decision you know where it's wrong you shouldn't be teaching what's wrong so but it's what's going on in corporate finance teaching is that people are getting paid for dispensing Balderdash that sounds I never believed it was a great help to me it helps if you're out in the market and the other people are believing Boulder Nash and you know what the hell is going on it's a big help but so of course is if you're Uncle Horus who has no children has a immense business which is immensely secure and Powerful he's going to leave it all to you if you come to work in the business you don't need any diversification you don't need any corporate freelance professors you should go to work for Elder horse it's a saint you don't only need one sentence and sometimes the market gives you the equivalent of an uncle horse and when it does step up to the pie court with the pie card with a big pan cards like that don't come very often and they do you have to have the gumption and the determination to to seize the opportunity shortly I was lucky imagine learning that from your dead great grandfather at a very young age but you know I spent my whole life with dead people I really liked it there's so much there's so much better than many of the people I'm with you on Earth all the dead people in the world we can learn a lot from them and they're very convenient to reach none of those problems of transportation and so I really recommend making friends among the eminent dead which of course I did very early has been enormously helpful some of you wouldn't have helped me but Adam Smith really did
Comments 0