저자: IanDunlap · 외국인
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결론: 영상 출연자는 미국 경제 쇠퇴와 시장 급락 가능성을 경고하지만, 대상 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 예측은 거의 없다. 레이 달리오 발언 소개: 새 책에서 미국의 경제적 쇠퇴가 내전 등 사회적 위기로 이어질 수 있다고 주장했고, 내전 확률을 약 30%로 언급했다. 근거로 중국의 성장, 달러 약세, 인플레이션, 과도한 부채, 양극화, 부의 격차를 들었다. 중국 관련: 진행자는 중국에서 미국과의 전쟁을 다룬 영화가 흥행 1위라는 점을 들어 중국의 대미 인식 변화를 언급했다. 내부자 매도: 일론 머스크, 제프 베이조스, 젠슨 황 등이 세금 목적이라며 보유 지분을 상당량 매도했다고 언급했고, 과거 2020년 폭락 직전에도 비슷한 일이 있었다고 해석했다. 급락 전망: 진행자는 향후 2년 내 상당한 조정 또는 급락이 올 수 있다고 봤으며, 이는 약 12~13개월간 반복해 온 견해라고 밝혔다. 다만 구체적 기간이나 목표 가격은 제시하지 않았다. 매수 시점 기준: 고점 대비 50%, 75% 하락 구간을 매수 고려 지점으로 제시했다. 증권사 안전성: 대형 증권사(TD, 피델리티, 찰스슈왑, 뱅가드 등)가 상대적으로 안전하며, 소형 플랫폼은 위험하다고 언급했다. 계좌 내 거래 이익은 약 50~60만 달러 이상 쌓아두지 않는 것이 좋다는 조언도 있었다. 현금·금 보유: 극단적 붕괴 상황을 대비해 현금이나 금 보유를 고려할 수 있으나, 가족 안전과의 균형을 강조했다. 상속 계획: 계좌 비밀번호, 수익자 지정, 금고 접근 권한, 이혼 시 수익자 갱신 등 자산 승계 준비를 강조했다. 출연자 전망 정리: 미국 경제·사회 쇠퇴 경고와 단기 급락 가능성 언급이 중심이며, 개별 자산 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
billionaire investor ray dalio um so it was crazy ian said this in a group chat but actually i put it in my story like two minutes before he's done the group chat he made news he wrote a new book and he says that america's decline will not only up in portfolios but it will up in lives lives he's predicting that the economic decline of america will lead to a war he even said a civil war he went he said it's a thirty percent civil i thought he said just uh if you look on the other one that i posted he says it's a 30 chance of a civil war i that is a little too far right but um he's saying that the the china's strength america's um weakening of the dollar inflation yeah um putting so much capital out there our debt has jeopardized national security and will lead and will lead to the downfall of this empire yeah polarization widening wealth gaps inflation and the fact that china can compete with us like really some people may argue surpass us yep and what's the number one movie in china right now somebody put it in chat because now you have the propaganda side of me being on the marketing side uh if you study the history of pr with edward bernays which is sigma freud's relative the number one movie in china right now is a war movie about how they defeat us is it really wow oh baby and on top of that in one month elon bezos and jack have sold a considerable amount of their uh portfolios and telling you that it's for tax reasons okay the last time this happened was uh right before the crash of 2020 they're telling me the writing is on the wall that a pullback or hard crash is going to come very very soon in the next probably two years which i've been telling you guys for the last probably 12 or 13 months so so let me let me ask you this because i just you know i get these random thoughts sometimes and as i was coming over here i just had a random thought like you know we put so much money especially as you start to get more and more money in your brokerage account and you know you put money in the brokerage account and you're putting this money into the bank and all that what happens what happens what happens if if this thing just falls apart and it's like i don't know like what if i know that's a very slim chance you know it was always a doomsday situation but you always have to plan for those events yeah so should you have physical cash should you have gold bars like what is this people said about gold bars like if what can you actually trade them for if we're in the disaster area you actually put your family in more danger having cash and gold on hand and the environments in which we grew up so you're saying like is it like a i am legend situation or like like what are we talking but do you but i mean i don't want to be like a doomsday obviously but you know it's something to consider because especially when you start to have a lot a lot of money let's say 80 or 80 of your wealth is on you know whatever portfolio it's an app right what happens what happens if you know what happens if anything happens what something happens you have to make sure this is good question you have to have your money in the brokers that is well capitalized so if there is a run on the brokerage which is different from a run on the bank do they have enough reserves for your trade still to be able to go through also that's what i tell you guys mark off 50 from the highs and 75 from the highest those are the places in which you want to buy then you need to look at the companies they've acquired the founders and chairmen to see have they bid at other banks or brokerages in which they have went under and they got bought because if so chances are very high that they're going to go under that's why i love td ameritrade i know if anything happens it will take an act of god for them to go under different now if you got a little smaller rinky brokerage money may be there tomorrow for those of you that trade on a non-top 10 platform you should probably max out at maybe five or six hundred thousand dollars of trading profits inside of there in case and also read like the actual disclaimers that they give you what happens if the market goes under yeah you have to be mindful of these things again real quick so we're talking top brokerages and obviously we're not sponsored by any of them but we're talking td fidelity charles schwab fanguard he trade perhaps are we talking those when so when you're saying ricky think saying anything outside of those robin hood is still sexual shout out to robin hood i'm just asking that's right i'm asking for a friend shout out to black is good yeah they're good robin hood's solvent they're solvent yeah anything else you have to know this will say you have to study everything and i'm going to say it again no company is responsible for making you rich or protecting your money that is your job so where you choose to put your money has an impact on how well you're going to do and here's the thing call them and ask them how solvent are you in case the market has a 45 decline over a 30-day period call ask the answers are really fascinating sometimes when you actually do call i don't just put on the jacket and say i'm the greatest of our air just because carl i've called every bank every brokers on earth that's why i picked the ones that i do even with ninjatrader i know there's a certain level of protection that they have if the market goes under that they'll still have enough liquidity for me to be able to trade and the wildest of markets even if we draw back 60 from today's highs calling to find out here's another thing speaking about virgil um you have to have your estate plan in order and part of that is actually so you know a lot of us i so you trading on these apps all day so you have a lot of money let's say anything can happen let's say you die right um who even knows you have an account who knows your password who knows the information so these are all things that you got to think about like you should have all of this stuff written out yeah especially for your wallets that's a fact i'm glad you said that crypto wallets for sure i i did that i actually did that uh my wife has the passwords to all the brokerage accounts i told the event if anything happens sell everything and then call shotty after that's the plan yeah yeah that's a good that's a good uh that's a good plan yeah it is but you should also to take it a step further you should you should have a safety deposit box and a bank um that somebody else should have access to because you never know what could happen right right right so you like people have like they give their lawyer access to information and then they'll give their spouse access to information so two people have access somebody watch the lord to be honest too yeah like a casino what was the guy behind stage at investors you need a friend like that to watch your lawyer i i'm not telling you guys hypothetically i've known somebody who trusted their lawyer and then all of a sudden a lot of assets came up missing post-death be mindful because now especially if you give them power of attorney over your estate trust me go ahead yeah like you guys have a state planet or attorneys have you ever actually did reference checks and call clients and say hey did they do a good job with their family when the other person in their family died a lot of this stuff is preventable but people don't call you have to call and check and screen and get your references to make sure everything is good and definitely add beneficiaries to everything that you have bank account retirement account brokerage account you should have a beneficiary and you should tell the beneficiary that they are the beneficiary because it's kind of pointless to have a beneficiary and they don't they don't know it the insurance company is not just randomly going to call somebody and say hey you know you can't you can't just rely on that so and please i know this is a story that you tell a story of caution if you are married and get divorced please make sure that you update your beneficiaries or not oh baby please please do please do you want to tell them the story yeah it was a guy that wasn't um i think he was like a new york firefighter new york police department and um long story short he had he had a pension he had a you know life insurance policy all of that and um you know he changed he got divorced and like you know he was remarried for another 20 years after he got divorced and he died and the ex-wife got um the insurance money got the pension got everything because he never changed the beneficiary from when he originally started working at the job 40 years ago so we got a whole new family and everything and no the ex-wife didn't give the new wife anything she didn't she didn't give him anything well that's debatable everything that happens good or bad is your fault i'm gonna tell you the real everything so now you get cussed out in depth because you didn't take time to transfer papers over but you have time to be on youporn apollo hey baby girl let me buy you a drink update your paperwork fam don't be on here standing on the mic update your paperwork my business straight while you're playing my worth straight while you're playing go up there today paperwork boy come on man what are we doing now come to play yo can we get a hashtag of that update your paperwork boy ladies make your man have a paperwork party not the kind if you got in trouble but the kind if you straight i'm damn paperwork party i'm dead xander my mama my dad my brother get everything about gold hey it is what it is update your paperwork boy it's extremely extremely important so make sure you guys have those family meetings shout out to carlos and everybody nobody wins when the family feuds yeah
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