저자: FinTek · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라는 전기차 제조사를 넘어 자율주행 AI와 배터리·로보택시로 가치가 평가돼야 하며, 루시드·리비안은 전기차 상품화로 고평가 우려가 크다. 출연자 Fin Tek은 캐시 우드의 2025년 테슬라 목표주가 3,000달러 전망을 소개하며, 2026년경 전기차 평균 가격이 약 1.5만 달러로 떨어지고 전기차가 commodity화되어 수익성이 낮아질 것이라고 주장한다. 테슬라는 2014년부터 하드웨어를 탑재하고 신경망 기반 자율주행 학습을 해왔으며, 2020년 약 50만 대 인도로 경쟁사보다 많은 데이터를 확보했다는 점을 강점으로 든다. 자체 AI 칩 설계로 반도체 부족 영향도 줄였다고 평가한다. 루시드·리비안은 자율주행 야심이 낮다고 평가하며, 적응형 크루즈·차선유지 등 기존 기술만 사용하므로 자동차 회사로만 평가해야 한다고 주장한다. 루시드 시총 약 700억 달러(2022년 약 1,000대 인도), 리비안 약 960억 달러 등을 제시하며 포드(약 790억 달러, 월 판매량 많음)보다 고평가라고 본다. 포드·GM은 아르고AI, 크루즈 등을 통해 자율주행에 투자 중이며, 폭스바겐과 협력하는 포드가 장기적으로 테슬라와 경쟁할 가능성이 있다고 언급한다. 아플 타이탄 등 빅테크 경쟁도 거론된다. 테슬라의 자율주행은 로보택시, 배터리 사업(호주 빅배터리 사례)으로 확장되어 시장 잠재력을 키운다. 캐시 우드는 자율주행 성공 시 2026년까지 전체 자동차 시장의 20~25% 점유를 예상한다고 소개된다. 리스크: 캐시 우드 본인도 3,000달러 달성 확률을 확정하지 않으며, 자율주행 성공 확률을 약 50%로 본다. 진행자는 테슬라 자율주행 선점 가능성은 50:50으로 보고 테슬라 주식을 매수하지 않겠다고 밝혔고, 루시드·리비안은 고평가로 보유하지 않으며 포드·GM은 향후 AI 역량을 보고 투자 고려 가능하다고 말한다. ※ 영상 시점은 2021년 12월이며 가격 예측 중심의 과거 발언이다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone fintech here it's well known that celebrity investor kathy wood has set a 3 000 price target for tesla by 2025. it's also no secret that other electric vehicle companies such as rivian and lucid motors have been getting sky-high valuations by the market based on the thesis that evs are going to replace traditional gas engine cars over the next decade but kathy wood has issued a warning about these valuations saying she expects to see evs essentially become commodities as soon as 2026.
our latest thinking is that by the year 2026 uh the average electric vehicle will cost about 15 000 well one of the reasons we do believe there's going to be quite a bit of commoditization and as we've seen in every other area with commoditization that means eevee companies will lose their pricing power by 2026 removing their ability to make huge profits on their cars but wood also sees a solution for this one that tesla has been working on for years because by that time we believe that autonomous vehicles will be taking off so in this video we're going to be separating out the idea of tesla's autonomous vehicles capabilities from their ev business looking at what this tells us about their future potential both of tesla as well as other ev manufacturers such as rivien and lucid and even ford and gm lastly we'll look at how this alternative framework for viewing tesla can help us predict its future valuation and that of other ev manufacturers and spoiler things don't look great for anyone other than tesla so hit the like button if you want and let's start by talking about tesla and how they got to be in their current position so tesla is obviously well known as the largest ev manufacturer in the world as their ceo elon musk has continuously pushed them toward their goal of accelerating the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass-market electric cars to market as soon as possible but in addition to creating a compelling electric car musk also wanted to create a great company and with a background in computer science from his previous startup ventures musk infused the company from the beginning with a software focused mindset this led them to make unique at the time design decisions including replacing traditional knobs in the car with a touchscreen and designing the entire car as a computer on wheels this culture of innovation around car design also led them to invest in equipping their cars with the hardware needed for autonomous driving as far back as 2014.
now we need to pause there for a second because while everyone knows about tesla's self-driving autopilot feature it's important to know how they built that feature to understand why they've been so successful up until now unlike with previous experiments in autopilot including adaptive cruise control from the 1990s that let you slow down and speed up to match the car in front of you tesla decided to apply ai to the self-driving problem using sophisticated neural networks tesla could essentially feed in data of people driving and through advanced pattern matching the network could slowly learn to drive itself the two key variables here for learning to self-drive would be the quality of the learning algorithm being applied and the amount of high quality data the company can generate and as the first mover in this space with 500 000 vehicles delivered in just 2020 they are now generating more data than any other eevee manufacturer out there and while it's relatively easy to copy someone's learning algorithm or even copy the hardware that makes up the car itself it's almost impossible to catch up when someone else has more data than you this early lead is why kathy wood with her arc innovation etf and a big fan of tesla by the way has not been so bullish on other eevee manufacturers such as rivian or lucid motors uh if we're going uh if we're going autonomous uh neither rivien and and we've interviewed both of them um uh we've had meetings with their management teams uh neither is interested at least at this time uh in pursuing autonomous we think therefore that's a very narrow way of viewing transportation so clearly kathy does not believe in those other eevee makers are putting in nearly enough attention on ai now that being said both lucid motors and rivien do have some level of interest in self-driving lucid motors showed off their semi-autonomous driving hardware features which could enable adaptive cruise control staying in the lane and self-parking and rivien's driver plus offerings are fairly similar but as i mentioned earlier adaptive cruise control is a 1990s technology and lane assist was invented in the early 2000s there are people buying their cars today who were born after those technologies were already invented so these two ev companies are not creating new autonomous driving features they are simply using existing features that other companies have already designed and tested and honestly that's fine for an ev company which is all that these companies really want to be but that would also mean that they should be valued purely as a car company that happens to use electric motors that is a very different case from tesla who has much broader ambitions of building essentially an autonomous robot on wheels that can even carry people in a taxi service with all their cars communicating with each other over a network but speaking of networks is your network connection right now being protected by atlas vpn connecting to a vpn lets 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nothing to lose in trying it out and this deal won't be around forever so check out the link in the description below and now back to the video so tesla has huge value beyond merely being an electric vehicle maker but this is where we start to see some issues with the other ev companies lucid motors as of when i'm filming this video has a market cap of over 70 billion dollars they've delivered fewer than 1 000 cars this year and they only plan to deliver 20 000 air sedans in 2022 and 90 000 in 2023 ford on the other hand is selling more cars per month than lucid plans to deliver in the entire year of 2023 and yet ford has a market cap of only 10 billion dollars more at 79 billion and remember while lucid does have the advantage of being an electric car company and i do think that that market will outperform gas car companies over the next 10 years they are ultimately driving toward becoming a commodity car manufacturer by 2026 if kathy wood is right rivien similarly has a market cap of 96 billion dollars more than ford and even more than gm's 90 billion dollar market cap now rivien also plans to deliver around 1 000 cars this year but they do have a large backlog of orders including 55 000 back at the end of october and a contract to deliver 100 000 cars to amazon through 2024 which is substantial super impressive and shouldn't be swept under the rug but again that is fewer cars than ford makes in a single month and as we've talked about they're going to be commoditized within the next decade but what does that actually mean well a commodity is where there isn't any real differentiation between two products if gm sells a fifteen thousand dollar car and ford sells a fourteen thousand dollar car with the exact same features people are gonna buy the ford since it's the same thing for a lower price this results in profits being driven out of the industry in fact in the gas-powered car market which was commoditized decades ago companies don't make that much money from selling new cars with only around 10 margins on new car sales they make up for that with other services for example they can make around four times that by selling replacement parts for their vehicles so as long as lucid and rivian are solely focused on producing electric cars we know what their future looks like and it's not an incredibly profitable one but let's compare those two companies with tesla now tesla also has a very high market cap over 10 times that of rivien or lucid but they also expect to deliver 1.3 million cars in 2022 more than 50 times as many as lucid motors so on a per car basis they are actually cheaper than the other ev makers but more importantly tesla is not just an ev company they are innovating in the software space with their autonomous driving ai so ultimately lucid and rivien are more expensive have less future potential than tesla and to me seem to be overvalued compared to even traditional gas car makers but speaking of gas car companies tesla may actually see more competition in the ai space from traditional car makers than from these new ev startups while lucid and rivian have decided not to pursue ai technologies for now both ford and gm have put substantial resources into developing self-driving capabilities ford for example in addition to their move into evs had previously had a segment in their business that they reported as their mobility segment which focused on autonomous vehicles and related businesses including their investment in argo ai argo ai is a company that develops autonomous driving systems potentially allowing ford to compete with next-gen car makers like tesla now they are obviously well behind tesla in terms of data for their models but they are well ahead of other ev makers by at least having this business segment they're also partnering with volkswagen on argo ai the largest car manufacturer in the world and the second largest ev maker behind tesla which means they might be able to compete with tesla at some point by leveraging their sheer scale in terms of cars on the road now they will certainly need to ramp up investments in this area to achieve that but it is a possibility the other company that provides direct competition in the autonomous driving space is gm who owns a subsidiary called cruise cruz has driven more than two million miles over the past five years and invested billions of dollars in their operations even driving more miles than google owned waymo in 2020.
they have been logging tons of miles on california roads and running mostly under the radar with no consumer product released as of yet waymo similarly has been running a self-driving taxi service in phoenix arizona but unlike tesla they have been much more quiet about their activities until they're actually ready to release a final product and we might as well mention here apple's potential car tech play called project titan which they've supposedly been working on since 2014 adding yet another big tech company to the list so competition for tesla is heating up in the autonomous driving space but they do have some advantages over these other competitors the first is obviously their number of cars on the road because tesla can gather data from huge fan base of loyal customers they don't need to run dedicated ai training like cruz or waymo in fact they are strongly focused on testing corner cases right now with their limited full self driving by only releasing to certain customers who have a demonstrated history of safe driving so while no company has successfully achieved consistently safe full self-driving we at least know tesla is making some serious progress tesla's other advantage is that they now produce their own ai chip for self-driving most other self-driving car companies are running nvidia ships to do the onboard ai processing work needed but tesla has had the foresight to start making their own chips and similar to how apple saw huge performance optimization and improvements from making their own m1 chip in their computers versus using a third party tesla is now able to optimize their chip for their specific vehicles and use cases and we've seen this start to pay off already while other manufacturers have been impacted by the silicone shortage affecting chip makers tesla was actually able to design around the shortages to make sure they did not run into a bottleneck with chips this also just gives the company one more differentiator in their arsenal one more ingredient in their secret sauce that could give them a long-term advantage over their competitors but okay tesla is more than an ev company but what does that mean for their future potential stock price well tesla's focus on autonomous driving gives them multiple markets that they can disrupt first there's the regular car and ev markets right now tesla controls around 20 of the global ev market and 60 of the market in the us as we see more competitors start to enter this space one differentiator will be the quality of tesla's autonomous driving if i personally had a choice between buying a thirty thousand dollar car that can drive itself or a thirty thousand dollar car that only has lane assist and self parking well it's pretty easy for me to pick the one with self driving and as that market becomes more commoditized any differentiator like this will have its impact magnified hopefully helping tesla maintain eevee market share as it slowly overtakes the gas-powered market kathy wood had a prediction for this area what market share of the electric vehicle market do we believe uh tesla will achieve what we are beginning to believe especially if tesla is the first to be successful in autonomous in the united states we believe that it could take you know 20 to 25 share of the total auto market in five years now that's by 2026 those numbers uh we're going to be publishing uh in our big ideas uh report in uh january that's a lot of cars but not enough by itself to justify a three trillion dollar market cap the next area this technology helps in is tesla's fleet of robo taxis tesla will build a network of robo taxis that can operate much more cheaply than any traditional taxi using autonomous driving technology if this happens the optimizations you will be able to include by removing the driver and basically having a robot on wheels will make it much cheaper than any traditional taxi service especially in dense urban areas not to mention how much more efficient and safe the cars will be with a network of vehicles that can all communicate with each other together this could disrupt the entire uber or taxi or maybe even the entire delivery industry further improving their potential market cap lastly and this is slightly adjacent to the ai technology is tesla's battery tech more efficient batteries in electric cars will be very important acting as another tesla ev differentiator in the short term and i would not be surprised in the long term if tesla ends up supplying batteries to other ev makers as well but as we move to a world where more and more electricity is generated by renewable sources such as wind and solar batteries are going to become more than important than ever to smooth out demand when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing this will hugely increase the total addressable market for tesla's battery technology as it becomes an essential part of energy infrastructure we've seen some of this start to happen in australia with tesla's victorian big battery so add all of that together tesla's ev tesla's robo taxi service and tesla's battery production and that is how kathy wood arrives at a future price target for tesla of three thousand dollars per share by 2025.
but before we all start celebrating that tesla is gonna go to the moon let's also talk about some risks here see kathy wood is not 100 sure that we'll see tesla at three thousand dollars per share like with all investments especially long-term ones there's also risk to factor in we have a 50 probability of success on autonomous um uh that's probably the the the biggest variable i would say or the most important variable to get it to scale to 3 000.
so what am i personally doing with tesla's stock well i agree with kathy to me the real value in tesla centers on whether or not they can achieve autonomous driving substantially sooner than competitors such as gm's crews or google's waymo and i also agree it's kind of a 50 50 shot at this point outside of tesla achieving that everything else that the company is doing evs batteries chips those seem like they're already baked into the company's 1 trillion market cap so at this point i am not willing to bet on the 50 50 shot that tesla will ultimately win out on autonomous vehicles enough before their competition to make a difference i think it could absolutely happen and it probably will but there are just other companies i have higher confidence in over the next five years to add to that i think that both rivian and lucid motors are overvalued at their current market cap at least until they announce some sort of full self-driving ambitions so i won't be touching either of those stocks and as far as ford and gm they face a lot of risk that i don't think their shareholders are fully pricing in from ev disruption but i like how company leadership at least is making moves to mitigate the damage they will see over the next 10 years i don't currently own either of those two companies but as things become more clear with their ai capabilities i might invest at some point in the future if the value drops enough but let me know if you agree or disagree on the value of the ev market versus autonomous driving don't forget to like and subscribe and i'll see you next time
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