저자: GeorgeGammon · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 버핏이 현금 비중을 역대급으로 늘리고 금융주 비중을 높인 것을 근거로, 금리 상승 사이클 진입과 주식시장 급락 가능성을 시사한다는 주장. 버핏 게이지(시가총액/GDP) 분석: 1975년 50% 미만에서 2000년 닷컴 버블 때 150%까지 치솟았고, 현재는 역대 최고 수준이라고 제시. 시장 밸류에이션 상승 원인: 금리 하락과 유동성 확대가 주가 상승을 견인했다고 설명. 금리가 낮을수록 미래 현금흐름 할인 가치가 높아진다는 논리. 금리 사이클 전망: 미국 금리는 약 40년간 하락 추세로 이미 매우 길어졌으며, 다음 상승 사이클에 진입할 것이라고 주장. 금리가 7%로 정상화되면 주식시장이 최소 절반 가치를 잃을 수 있다고 봄. 버핏의 현금 비중: 2004년 이후 현금 비중이 크게 늘었고 2008~2009년 위기 때도 크게 줄이지 않았으며, 현재는 2004년 수준에 근접. 이는 시장이 고평가라는 신호로 해석. 포트폴리오 구성: 금융주 45%, 기술주 26%, 소재 0.3%. 금리 상승기에는 금융주(장단기 금리차 확대 시 수익성 개선)에 유리하다는 점을 들어, 버핏이 금리 상승을 예상하고 있다고 해석. 출연자 전망: 금리 상승과 주가 급락을 전제로 한 약세 관점. 구체적 시점·목표가는 제시되지 않음. 영상 말미에 추가 콘텐츠 홍보.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett is he predicting the next stock market crash and in order to find out we've got to look at what he does and not what he says a lot of times those are two different things we're gonna answer that question in three steps step number one the Buffett gauge this is how he likes to measure whether or not the stock market is cheap or expensive it's the total market cap relative to GDP there's a chart going back to 1975 editor we'll throw that up on the screen right now in 1975 the market cap was under 50 percent of GDP as we go through this to the 90s it just skyrockets all the way up till we get to the peak of the bubble in 2000 where we are at a hundred and fifty percent of GDP that's really a tough number to get your mind around of course everything crashes as we know and then it climbs all the way back up to run 135 percent of GDP and then it crashes again in 2009 it bottoms out at its historic trendline in 2010 but then it goes right back up and now we're at a point higher than we have ever been before now you may be asking yourself how on earth can we go through a time frame from 1975 all the way to 1990 where the market cap was under or right around 50% of GDP and then all of a sudden just a couple decades later were all the way to a hundred and fifty percent why on earth would anyone be willing to pay so much money for stocks here went down 1975 through 1995 people seem far more prudent with their money it boils down to two major factors interest rates and liquidity so if the feds printing money like mad injecting it into the system a lot of that money is going to go into the stock market that's going to drive prices higher although the fundamentals don't change additionally interest rates because stocks are valued partially on future cash flow the lower the interest rate goes the higher the projected future cash flow actually is so it makes sense that stocks when interest rates were 15% would be down below 50% of GDP and when interest rates are at zero or 1% then the stock prices would be all the way up at a hundred and fifty percent the problem with this and what most people forget because of that recency bias is that interest rates are cyclical if you go back through our entire history of the United States interest rate cycles go up and down usually in twenty to thirty year periods currently we are 40 years into an interest rate downtrend that's very long in the tooth so what happens when we go into a cycle which we will go into again where interest rates start to increase well if this is our mark at fifteen percent this is our mark at one percent it's safe to say that even if interest rates normalize and go back to seven percent the market the stock market would lose at least half of its value since cash gives you an option to buy things when they're cheap it would be safe to assume that Buffett would have very little cash in his portfolio in this time frame because he'd be buying as much as he could he would have a lot of cash in his portfolio here a lot of cash here in a ton of cash here that means the more cash that he has the more he's expecting the market to go down and get cheaper let's look at his cash positions right now and see if that's actually true step number two Warren Buffett's cash positions this reveals a lot remember Warren Buffett likes to buy things when they're cheap remember that's my number one principle in my personal investment philosophy so if he has a ton of cash in his portfolio and this represents the percentage of cash that he has in his portfolio that would imply that he just cannot find anything cheap to buy back here 88 through 96 he was almost fully invested in the market that means he can see a lot of cheap things out there so he's buying all the time he doesn't want any cash because that's counterproductive but in 98 he starts increasing his cash positions that was when the Nasdaq bubble really started to get going and of course that bubble burst right around 2001 what's interesting is Buffett's cash position prior to the crash went down substantially and you may say well boy maybe Warren Buffett's not that smart maybe he should have stayed in cash but what happened is he saw that value stocks at this time were incredibly cheap they weren't in a bubble it was all the other tech stocks in the Nasdaq that's what created that huge bubble that ended up crashing so Buffett was loading up on value stocks right here which did very very well but coming into 2004 we get to a point where he doesn't see anything that's cheap this is historic over 60 percent of his portfolio was in cash that means something is really wrong with the price of the stock market according to Buffett and again he might not say this but his actions tell us the truth so moving on to 2008 9 that's when the stock market really started to crash and Buffett went on TV he was on TV all the time saying that now is a great time to buy us stocks what wasn't that great according to his portfolio because historically he had been invested almost a hundred percent but he only went to about 80 about 75 80 percent here in 2009 so he wasn't exactly practicing what he preached moving forward to today here 2018 was when this chart ends he was waived about 50 percent but now he's even higher to a point almost where he was in 2004 this tells us that the market is extremely overvalued and the very best investor in human history can't find anything that's cheap enough to buy step number three putting the pieces of the puzzle together this is Warren Buffett's current portfolio financials is at the top of the list with a 45 percent allocation next is tech 26% going down to materials at 0.3% let's think about this for a moment what happens to financials when interest rates go up and down if interest rates go down especially if that yield curve flattens out it's a lot harder for financials to make money if that yield curves steepens if long rates go up then it's easier for financials to make money what buffett is doing right here is he's showing us his cards he's showing us that he thinks that we're at the end of that interest rate cycle and that interest rates will start to turn around and go back up for the next 20 to 30 years if stocks are at all-time highs because interest rates are so low what happens to the stock market if interest rates go back up for 30 years the stock market gets cut in half if you thought the stock market was going to get cut in half how would you have your portfolio set up your cash position would be at all-time highs just like Warren Buffett's is so if you look at what he does and not what he says it becomes blatantly obvious that he thinks interest rates are going way up and the stock market is gonna crash for more information like this check out this content right here and I will see you on the next video
Comments 0