저자: GeorgeGammon/출연인물RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 중앙은행의 통화 팽창과 마이너스 금리 가능성 때문에 금을 보유해야 한다는 주장이다. [연준 금리 구조] 2009년 이전 연준은 지준금 공급으로 연방기금금리를 조절했고, 이후 양적완화로 지준이 늘어나면서 지준부리(IOR)와 역레포로 금리 하한을 관리하게 되었다. [레이 달리오 인용] 현금은 쓰레기라며 포트폴리오에 금이 일정 비중 있어야 한다고 주장했고, 금은 수익을 위한 투기자산이 아니라 구매력을 지키는 보험이라고 설명했다. [금리·재정 전망] 달리오는 마이너스 금리와 대규모 재정적자를 전망했고, 국채 수요 약화와 부채 매각 압력을 언급했다. 다만 본인도 틀릴 수 있다고 말했다. [2019년 9월 레포 시장 충격] 레포 금리가 10%까지 치솟아 연방기금금리가 목표 상단을 넘었고, 이후 연준이 월 1000억 달러 규모로 대차대조표를 늘렸다는 설명이다. [금리 하한과 할인창구] 제로금리 근처에서 추가 인하를 하려면 대차대조표를 약 1.35조 달러 더 늘려야 한다는 계산을 제시했고, 할인창구는 이용하면 부실 신호가 되어 사실상 기능하지 않는다고 주장했다. [금 관련 결론] 금은 법정화폐 팽창과 신뢰 하락에 대한 헤지이며, 장기적으로 통화 팽창 환경에서 가치를 지킬 수 있다는 논지다. [리스크] 금리 전망과 재정 적자 확대가 현실화되지 않을 수 있고, 시장 상황에 따라 예측이 빗나갈 수 있다.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio says you must own gold and here is why I'm explaining this to you in three simple fast steps step number one we've got to understand how the Fed sets the Fed Funds rate prior to 2009 this was actually very easy so let me go over the players the Federal Reserve all of the primary banks and banks under the feds umbrella we'll call them a B and C all these banks have accounts with the Fed that's where they keep their reserves and excess reserves the Fed Funds rate is just the interest rate that the bank's pay overnight to lend and borrow from one another we call this the inter bank lending so the more money that these banks have the lower the Fed Funds rate or the interbank lending rate will be its simple supply and demand if the Fed wants the Fed Funds rate at 5% instead of let's say 10% all they do is print money out of nowhere that definitely hasn't changed they go into the bond market to buy short-term Treasuries t-bills well who is selling them those t-bills most likely that would be Bank a B and C so the Fed takes those t-bills and puts them onto their balance sheet whoa time out I want to make sure that we totally understand the Fed's balance sheet when I say that it prints all this money to buy Treasury bills those Treasury bills go onto the asset side of the Fed's balance sheet but all of that funny money that they print that is a matching liability so why is the money that they print a liability because it's an IOU so the Fed takes those T bills and puts them onto their balance sheet but this provides extra money that didn't exist before to the entities that are selling those t bills they take that money and put it into their account with the Federal Reserve that increases the amount of reserves in the system enough to take the rate from 10 percent to 5 percent again supply and demand the more reserves in the system the more supply we have therefore the lower the interest rate goes post 2009 everything changed and it all starts with quantitative easing the first big difference was the Fed went from printing three little dollar bill signs to printing countless dollar bill signs in fact they've now printed so many dollar bill signs that they're literally raining down on them from the sky they did this in order to buy longer-term Treasuries so with all that funny money that they printed they bought those longer-term Treasuries from the bond market that increased the size of their balance sheet and it increased the amount of liabilities that they owe remember those are those IOUs the primary dealers and banks under the feds umbrella that sold all of those long-term Treasuries at the Fed bought from quantitative easing took that money and put it into their reserve accounts the Fed printed so much money that that took the reserve accounts to a level where the interest rate or the Fed Funds rate couldn't go above zero there's no way to do it so if the Fed wanted the Fed Funds rate to reach one percent they had to figure out a new way to do that the system that they came up with was I owe our interest on reserves so the Fed went to all the banks and said listen guys okay I understand that there's so much liquidity there's so much cash in reserves that the natural rate of interest is 0% but we wanted it 1 so here's what we'll do we'll pay you guys 1% on your reserves and your excess reserves so the banks look at that and say hmm okay yeah we'll do that no problem so the banks have no motivation to lend at a rate higher than 1% because they can get that 1% risk-free just by parking the reserves at the Fed this effectively sets a floor to the Fed Funds rate there is a problem there are a lot of banks and lending institutions outside of the feds umbrella they're kind of like the redheaded stepchild banks and they don't have accounts with the Fed so they can't get interest on their reserves if the natural rate of lending is 0% because of all the funny money the Fed is printed to do quantitative easing that's a big Delta between 0 & 1 percent so these banks outside of the system come to the borrower and say listen we'll lend to you 4.5 percent because it's a hell of a lot better than getting 0 percent which would be their alternative this potentially lowers the rate for all of the money markets bringing down the Fed Funds rate under their target so the Fed has to think of a solution for this so they come up with the reverse repo basically that's IOR for all these banks outside of the system the Fed says to these banks listen guys we will borrow your excess reserves and pay you the same rate that we're paying all the cool kid banks under the umbrella I owe are the banks outside of the system say yes that is a great deal because that is risk free money that's a no-brainer so this is how it works today there's another thing that you need to understand to tie all of this together at the end of the video that's the discount window this is the Fed saying to all the banks inside and outside of the system listen if you get into trouble and no other entities will lend to you in the open market you can come to the discount window give us collateral and we will give you however much money you need the rate will be a little bit higher than the Fed Funds rate but that way the Fed is the lender of last resort sounds like a good plan but this comes back to bite them in the end now that we understand all this let's go to Ray Dalio himself in this CNBC interview talking about why you must own gold step number two I'm gonna give my reaction to everything ray says about gold and then we're gonna go right back to the whiteboard and I'm gonna put all the pieces of the puzzle together for you and hopefully I can do this while biting my tongue when these clueless C NBC announcers interject and try to interrupt ray and suggested right now that you have to be in the market for long and so the question is whether everybody jumps on the train everybody gets in for long and then the problem arises neither does much likely then to mind about the train but the closer the question is what do you jump into where I do jump off the train and that issue is you you can't jump into cash cash is trash because I've got a bunny we could own what do you do you get out okay so cash it's not there what do you do I think that you have to have a certain amount of gold in your portfolio or you have to have something that's hard there are three monetary systems that happen but first isn't in the old days it had intrinsic value carry around gold coins then they and then we come up with the idea of banks or even central banks and what they do is they create certificates and cool notes that are claims on those way and we put many more certificates than there is money in the back and then that's a linked system and we so we did that and we broke that in 1971 then you have a monitor a Fiat monetary system which means that you can print whatever amount of money you want and you can put that and that's what governments do exactly and it's so awesome to hear someone like Ray Dalio with an extremely high profile talk and think about gold the exact same way that we do if were tinfoil hat errs so is Ray Dalio who is going to do the by central banker another what are they gonna hold as you observed what has been tried and true are they gonna hold digital bit going up they're going to hold gold there that is a reserve currency and it's been a reserve currency for a thousand year of them I don't want to I know this is going to be the headline of gold I want to emphasize a bit of gold is a diversifier okay and that's the advice I can get I know I'm going to come out of here like red Ali's wild on gold and that's not exactly just trashes your headline that after all the years of zero interest rates in QE one two three and four here we've been making this case that entire time of what you were just making it maybe there was so much of a lack of demand in the private sector following the financial crisis that it was able to absorb all of that but coming to us now with that it almost at the risk of sounding like the boy who cried wolf too many times I'm not saying you did but we all work that the death of the bond vigil the de'longhi vigilante we it's been well-documented for the past ten years now okay and this clown brings up the exact reason why the Talking Heads in the media and most people for that matter get gold completely wrong they look at it as though it's a speculative asset they compare it to stocks or they compare it to Bitcoin they compare it to something where you're buying it because you think the price is going to go up that is not why you buy gold gold is is an insurance policy period if the price goes up that's fantastic but the main reason you buy it is to maintain your purchasing power it's not comparable to stocks the S&P or the Nasdaq you're saying well I would say when we are dealing with the negative interest rates those thoughts and years already Rock we know how long it's been okay you take each country and you take where we were in December toward the tightening then you create an easy we are now coming into a direction and so the question for any of us is not whether it's early or not the question for any of us is when you're holding all of those bonds and you have a negative interest rate or something and how far more can you push that what is the next five years look like and the next five years is going to be something like that plus they'll be more deficit now more deficits means sell more bonds who are you going to sell the bond interest rates in the United States well I think and I'm not saying now I'm saying that okay if if you have a next next downturn okay what is it's on average 500 basis points of rate cuts oh then you can't do that you broke away right we don't have much stimulant we have people at each other's throats over the wealth gap and so what will the next downturn me and also why would you want to hold those why do you want to hold those at some point I don't know I could be wrong I'm not I've been wrong plenty in my life so I can't I could be wrong I'm just trying to describe like tell me why that makes sense of course great points by Ray Dalio and those guys keep interrupting him it's annoying I don't see how anyone watches this stuff but regardless what ray saying is that he sees negative interest rates coming he sees a lot of money printing because they're gonna have to take it to the zero bound meaning the Fed Funds rate and in order to combat a recession in the asked they've had to decrease interest rates by at least 5% so how do you do that if right now positive interest rates are only one point five percent so once you get to that lower bound or once you get to zero percent interest rates you still have three point five percent to go so Ray's saying that that's going to be made up in additional money printing and if the government is running trillion-dollar deficits interest rates are negative you have all this money printing who is going to be your buyer for those bonds and for that debt and you combine this that what the Fed is doing will lead to more and more social unrest because it's only benefiting the top 1% that own assets and you've got a powder keg ray makes some great points that show why you must own gold in 2020 but I want to take it a step further with negative interest rates and money printing and touch on some things that Ray didn't have the opportunity to address in the CNBC interview so let's go right back to the whiteboard step number three so in the video we know Ray Dalio says you must own gold because of negative interest rates and money printing let's explore that further before the great financial crisis the Fed Funds rate was at 5% there to drop it down to 0% in order to do that they had to expand the balance sheet to four point five trillion dollars that's what created enough liquidity to push those rates down to 0% and keep them there regardless of what the feds target was that's why they came out with IOR interest on reserves what we covered in step number one fast forward to September 17 2019 at that time the Fed Funds top target rate was 2.25 percent IOR was 2.1 percent the repo market blew up to 10% and that took the Fed Funds rate above its target in other words the Fed lost control that rate it took it up to 2.3 percent while this was happening in the background the Fed had started cutey quantitative tightening in other words they were reducing the size of their balance sheet and reducing the amount of reserves in the system they thought there were so many reserves that this wasn't a big deal they dropped it down to 3.7 trillion and all of a sudden this happened that means there wasn't enough reserves in the system since that time they've had to add a hundred billion dollars a month to their balance sheet which I'd like to point out is more than they are adding during quantitative easing 3 which was 85 billion they've taken the balance sheet back up to 4.2 trillion to get the rate down to 1.5 so what we can conclude from all of these numbers in order to get the interest rate the Fed Funds rate down to zero the Fed would have to add at least another 1.3 trillion to their balance sheet or BS if you will and that math is based on the fact that after the great financial crisis it took them 900 billion of balance sheet expansion to lower the rate by just 1 percent so that's where we're getting the additional one point three five trillion in balance sheet expansion it took all of this money printing to get the rates down to zero you can imagine how much additional money printing would be required to get them into negative territory and keep them there this is Ray Dalio 'z implicit point but I like to expand on that just because the Fed drops IOR into negative territory as September 17th shows us that doesn't necessarily mean that the Fed Funds rate is there so they can dream about negative interest rates all they want but it doesn't mean that the market is going to play their game and there's one more thing remember the discount window that we talked about in step number one that is supposed to be the feds ceiling for the market so any of these banks or entities inside the system or outside the system can go to that discount window and borrow at a rate just slightly higher than the Fed Funds target rate the problem with that is if any entity goes and uses the discount window the market will know that they are bust because they can't borrow from anywhere else that's the kiss of death and it's a self-fulfilling prophecy so effectively the Fed doesn't have a discount window it doesn't even exist because no one will use it that means they don't have a ceiling for the interest rates other than additional money printing and that is why you need to own gold in 2020 for more content that'll help you build wealth and thrive in a world of out-of-control central banks and big 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