저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경제가 2023년 전후 1929년급 대공황에 가까운 침체로 갈 수 있으며, 미국 주식·주택시장은 향후 12개월 내 50% 이상 하락할 수 있다는 주장. 그랜섬의 핵심 논리: 2022년 초부터 미국 주식시장에 슈퍼 버블이 시작됐고, 이는 터질 수밖에 없다는 입장. 버블의 원인: 2021년 미국이 막대한 현금·경기부양책을 쏟아붓고 금리를 극저금리로 낮추며 대기업과 부유층을 구제한 것이 조건을 만들었다고 봄. 그는 이 전략이 과거에도 실패했고 결함이 있다고 평가. 불평등과 자산: 이 정책의 결과는 기업 복지, 인플레이션, 주택담보대출·부채 부실, 자산가격 급등과 불평등 심화였으며, 전 세계 가치 있는 자산의 약 99%를 상위 10%가 보유한다고 언급. 과거 사례와 경고: 그랜섬은 일본 1980년대 후반 버블, 1990년대 후반 닷컴 버블, 2008년 미국 주택 붕괴를 예로 들며 과거 경험을 근거로 삼음. 2021년 경기침체를 예고했고, 이제는 미국에서 대공황이 임박했다고 더 확신. 주식 고평가: 미국 주식이 명백히 과대평가됐다고 주장. 일론 머스크와 제프 베이조스도 주력 주식의 고평가를 언급했다고 인용. 2021년과 2022년 6월 무렵의 과열과 약 25% 하락을 근거로 제시. 부의 소멸: 2021년에 쌓인 부는 2022년 하반기에 상당 부분 사라졌고, 억만장자들이 주식·옵션에 자산을 많이 묶어둔 만큼 순자산 급감이 확인된다고 설명. 러셀2000 대비 나스닥: 2021년부터 2022년 상반기까지 나스닥은 신고가를 기록한 반면 수익이 없는 상장사가 많았고 러셀2000은 하락. 그랜섬은 GMO(1500억 달러 이상 운용)가 러셀2000 지수를 공매도해 수익을 냈다고 밝히며 두 지수의 괴리를 위험신호로 봄. 부동산과 모기지: 주식 붕괴와 함께 2008년과 유사한 미국 부동산·모기지 시장 붕괴가 손실을 키우고 회복을 늦출 것이라고 봄. 원자재·기후·노동: 공급망 위기가 일부 해소됐어도 원자재, 식품, 전자제품 가격은 여전히 상승 중이며 기후변화로 식량 문제가 악화될 것으로 봄. 미국·중국 모두 노동력 부족 문제가 심각하다고 언급하고, 중국은 출산율 문제로 경제전략 재검토가 필요하다고 봄. 정부와 기업의 기후 대응에 대해서도 비판적. 투자 조언: 미국 시장을 넘어 저평가된 아시아 신흥시장으로 자금을 옮기라고 권고. 혁신 자본벤처 투자가 침체기의 안전장치이자 성장·고용의 원천이라고 강조. 정책 평가: 연준은 인플레이션을 낮추면서 고용을 해치지 않는 금리 인상에 실패하고 있으며, 부양책으로 국가부채가 감당하기 어려운 수준으로 치솟았다고 평가. 미국 자산가격은 추세에서 표준편차 3개 이상 벗어났다고 주장. 백악관과 연준도 낙폭을 막기 어렵다는 입장. 발언 요약: 미국 주식·주택 시장이 12개월 내 50% 이상 하락할 수 있다는 것이 영상의 핵심 경고이며, 이는 2022년 10월 시점의 예측임.
다듬은 글
the U.S economy is heading for a depression Dear Americans brace for impact the U.S economy is heading for an imminent depression possibly as bad as the total economic collapse of 1929 and as early as 2023 this is not a far-fetched story to merely grab your attention it is an accurate prediction that has been causing an awkward hush-hush buzz and serious concern among the top American political and business Elites since mid-2020 it is based on economic facts historical comparisons and top-notch Analysis by renowned experts and investors are you worried yet you should be in here is why if you thought that the U.S stock market has been acting rather crazy and contrary to the common wisdom and predictions put forward by top Bankers analysts and investment advisors you are right and your analysis is Justified even the U.S federal reserve fed for short has been sending conflicting messages about the state and future of the U.S and global economy since the beginning of 2022 the world entered a new phase in which covet has become a mere endemic treated the same way as the common flu however the legacy of covid did not vanish nor diminish it left the global economy drowning in Ripple effects that are a natural and predictable result of the global monetary response to the crisis here it is the pickle according to numerous experts and specifically the renowned investor Jeremy Grantham the beginning of 2022 marked the beginning of a super bubble in the U.S stock market and everyone should expect it to burst thus leading to economic depression Grantham stated on several occasions in 2021 that from the moment the USA began drowning the markets with cash and stimulus packages while lowering the interest rates to ridiculous lows in addition to bailing out big corporations and the rich they created a fertile ground and all the factors that eventually lead to economic depression Grantham also elaborated that the global economic strategy over the past two and a half years has been a copy and past Fiasco that merely mocked the old rescue policies and strategy of the USA it was and still is a standard response that was utilized in the past he cited that the strategy did not work in the past and is flawed at best because it merely encompasses recession-causing factors such as lower interest rates printing more money bailing how businesses with a focus on too big to fail corporations lower corporate taxes near zero taxes on dividends and other Securities related profits and increase in income tax mostly for the middle and lower classes according to him and some other experts the result of this strategy was always the same it resulted in increased and bigger corporate welfare handouts inflation a rise in mortgage and debts default and a sharp rise in the value of assets thus inequality too why nearly 99 of all worthy assets on the face of our planet are owned by the top 10 percent known as the upper class so do you have some doubts about grantham's opinion and Analysis every word and opinion by 83 years old Jeremy Grantham regarding the global economy and its future is worth noting spotted and provided from the bubbles in Japan in the late 1980s the.com or blue chip disaster in the late 1990s and the U.S housing catastrophe in 2008.
in 2021 he predicted that a recession is on the way and now he is more certain than ever that an economic depression is imminent at least in the USA during a more recent interview with Bloomberg Grantham detailed several aspects and facts that have been reiterated by his peers he identified the various stages and circumstances that hint at a possible or imminent Super Bubble Burst he pointed out that U.S stocks are simply way overvalued it is hard to disagree with him on this one because even famous billionaires such as Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos took in the past two years publicly or in letters to investors that their Flagship stars are overvalued he spoke quite a bit about over-enthusiasm because it is a major issue that has been noted by observers in 2021 and as recently as June 2022 during which the U.S stock market was on fire for all the wrong reasons thus a major decline of as much as 25 which is technically halfway to a full-blown collapse was followed indeed this can be confirmed by looking at the sudden massive declines in the net worth of numerous billionaires who tend to keep most of their wealth in stocks and options in simple words all the wealth that was accumulated in 2021 has been wiped out by the second half of 2022.
Grantham also described the recent Behavior by the fed and major investors as simply crazy pointing out that while the NASDAQ was hitting new highs in 2021 and the first half of 2022 even as numerous listed companies did not make any money at all the Russell 2000 was in Decline Grantham even admitted that he is the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham mayo and Van otterloo a boston-based asset management firm with more than U.S 150 billion dollars in assets under management actually shorted the Russell 2000 Index and made quite a profit he emphasized that the contradiction between the two indices is very very worrying and a signal of a looming depression due to Crazy unsound investing behavior that does not reflect reality Grantham added that there are numerous strong signals that the probable U.S stock market collapse will be accompanied by a burst in the U.S real estate and mortgage Market not so different from the 2008 collapse which is bound to magnify losses and prolong recovery Grantham also had a take on commodities prices and global warming he cited that despite great progress in resolving the supply demand chain crisis the prices of Commodities oil Electronics food and consumer products in general are still going up and are predicted to keep Rising he also emphasized that these issues can and will become worse as the effects of climate change on Farming and the global food basket get worse according to the UN food index food prices globally are higher than ever other un reports state that even in Rich developed countries such as the USA the number of food insecure people is rising rapidly as for labor shortages it is a great concern not just in the USA but also in China according to Grantham where the birth rate has become a serious issue that is forcing the Chinese government to re-evaluate its entire economic strategy due to imminent labor shortages in the future Grantham also had some harsh words for governments and corporations due to their performance in adopting green policies strategies and tackling climate change issues his opinion regarding the importance of this issue is well situated and sound to the highest degree not just because of the health of the planet and Humanity in general but also due to its immense importance to the future of the global economy indeed most Nations and major power corporations around the world have been phasing out coal and even oil in power plants and adopting gas instead which is cleaner as a bridge until all fossil fuels are replaced with clean renewable energy sources by the late 2060s Grantham repeated a piece of advice that has been going around for a while now in the realm of professional stock trade and investing in general he advised that investors must look beyond the U.S stock market and mobilize their Investments to emerging markets in Asia in particular where stocks are rarely overvalued Grantham also made a very important call to investors he emphasized the importance of investing in capital Ventures citing that new ideas and Innovations in Progressive projects are not only a source of security during recessions but are also major contributors to economic strength and job creation in conclusion the U.S fed is failing at increasing interest rates in a manner that should also reduce inflation without creating higher employment rates especially in the manufacturing sector the stimulus strategies had implemented over the past two years caused the national debt to Skyrocket to new highs that are simply unmanageable and sadly all the wealth that was created in 2021 has been wiped out in the second half of 2022 due to obvious reasons including a poorly formulated unsustainable strategy the sharp rise in inequality and poor performance in tackling climate change and labor shortages issues numbers cannot lie U.S asset prices have veered three standard deviations from the trend so if you are an investor do not be surprised if the U.S stock and housing markets declined by 50 percent or more in the next 12 months and by the way according to Grantham and other experts this time there will be little to nothing the White House and fed can do to cushion the fall through Rock Bottom so that's all for today if you enjoyed watching this video leave a like subscribe to this Channel and share this video with your friends we will be back to you with another video very soon
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