저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 다음 위기는 지금까지 겪은 것 중 가장 나쁜 위기가 될 것이며, 2017~2018년 사이 시작될 가능성이 크다. 위기의 원인: 2008년 위기의 해법이 막대한 부채와 통화 증발을 낳아 다음 위기를 키웠다. 금리를 제로 부근에 오래 묶어둔 결과 많은 나라에서 금리가 마이너스가 되었다. 위기의 전개: 위기는 작은 곳에서 시작해 1~2년 뒤 모두가 인지하게 된다. 아이슬란드 파산, 베어스턴스·리먼 사태처럼 예고 신호가 먼저 나타난다. 미국 일부 주(일리노이, 푸에르토리코) 재정 위기가 전조일 수 있다. 중앙은행 대응 한계: 중앙은행은 돈을 찍고 지출을 늘리겠지만 다음 위기는 막기 어렵고, 그 다음 위기에는 해법이 없다. 옐런 연준 의장의 '향후 생애 중 문제 없음' 발언에는 동의하지 않는다. 포트폴리오 전략: 위기 시 보유 자산 가치가 크게 떨어질 것이다. 장기 보유 시 평균 지수는 대개 회복했지만 일부 종목은 회복하지 못할 수 있다. 금과 은을 보유 중이며 2010년 이후 금은 사지 않았지만 팔지도 않았고, 1~2년 내 금·은을 더 살 생각이다. 은은 금 대비 역사적으로 저평가 상태다. 주식 시장 평가: 미국 증시는 사상 최고치 부근이고, 일본(-50%)·중국(-50%)은 고점 대비 크게 하락했다. 현재 주식을 새로 사기엔 매력적인 대상을 찾기 어렵다. 유동성 리스크: 빌 그로스가 지적한 대로 매도가 시작되면 매수자가 없고 은행도 자금이 없을 수 있다. 자산은 미국 은행 시스템 밖에도 분산 보관해야 하며, 엔·유로도 신뢰가 약하다. 중앙은행 비판: 중앙은행은 버블을 만들고 있으며, 중앙은행이 없는 세상이 지금보다 낫다고 본다.
다듬은 글
foreign Sheldon Anderson I'm with the Birch gold group sitting down with legendary investor they always call you legendary investors I think it's served it's nice though I suppose and it's a simple person well I mean you you're a simple person but you've correctly called some crisis and this crisis you've recently said that will be the worst of our lifetime next time we have a financial problem uh and in America we've had financial problems every four to eight years since the beginning of the Republic we don't have to have them but we always have and I suspect we will continue to have them whether it's four to eight years or four to fifteen years I don't know but I know we're going to have another one and what I said was the next one when it comes is going to be the worst in my lifetime 2008 was bad because there was a lot of debt well the debt is much much much higher now Sheldon than I was in 2008 everywhere in the world people talk about austerity but nobody nobody is reduced their debt everybody's increased their debt the Federal Reserve in the U.S is more than quintil but it's balance sheet alone in nine years I mean the Staggering things that have been happening and so the next time we have a problem that's going to be the worst In Our Lifetime isn't it sort of fueled by the fact that they've had interest rates pegged around zero for like a hundred months yeah it's interest rates have never been this low in recording history in many countries interest rates are actually negative still we're more negative before but they're still negative in most countries in many countries it's all absurd what's been happening if 20 years ago we had said rates are going to go to zero and they're going to go to negative people would have said that's incomprehensible it cannot happen and if I explained it would be done by the central banks it would really say it's incomprehensible because in those days they'll raise people don't the central banks knew what they were doing and they were Sounder than they are now by the way I should say Mrs Yellen who's the head of the Central Bank in America says it will not be any more problems in our lifetime In Our Lifetime that's right I so I'm giving both sides well right I think there's a massive disconnect there somebody is right and it looks like we go through these cycles and it seems like this one's going to be worse than ever before and it seems like the solution to the 08 crisis essentially created the next Crisis and are we months away from that manifestation years away it will probably start by the end of this year and certainly be obvious by 2018 18 you know when these things start they start small it's in 2007 Iceland went bankrupt those people didn't know what Iceland was that there was a real country much less they could go bankrupt in Ireland would Bank when bear Stearns went bankrupted and Lehman Brothers and after a year or two everybody said oh my gosh there's a problem something's going on yeah well that's the way this one will start it may start this far I have no idea but certainly by a year or two from now we will all know hey there's something wrong do you think that the harbinger for this are some of these State defaults like state of Illinois and Puerto Rico I mean they don't live in a void so something's definitely wrong I would certainly suspect that it will be a could well be one of the U.S states I mean most people have never heard of Ford Rico most people have never heard of our of Illinois just like most people have never heard of Iceland you and I have heard of Illinois this is a big American state but you know in the Wilds of the world they don't know what it'll be in but it's probably going to be some place like that we do have several states that are essentially bankrupt and I don't see how Illinois will ever pay it stance so this is a debt problem and a lot of bondholders think that they've got you know something solid there but dead if it goes away you know that's a big risk what does it look like to a typical investor what's a Buy and Hold strategy when we see this next Crisis well if he has a high no crisis If he if he's watching he's going to see the value of his Holdings go down a lot but most of them will say to you it doesn't matter because they always go back up that has been true in the U.S it certainly has been that eventually they go back up it might it may take a long time and some of your Holdings may never go back up but the averages have always gone back up the averages are all-time highs in the United States but wasn't isn't this all because of the bailouts I mean who is around to bail us out this time you've said it very well the problem of 2008 is that their solution has led to the problems we're going to have next time around all this money printing all this gigantic debt that's going to is leading to the next problem is why the next problem is going to be so bad uh who is to bail us out central banks work they will do whatever they can they will print as much money as they can they will spend as much money as they can and get the government to spend as much money as they can and they hope it works but they may even get us out of the next one but the one after that they will not no matter what they do the time after that there's no hope but this time around I mean their interest rates are at zero they don't have any leadians the they're they're gonna have to print the dollar is that not good for medals gold silver what does that look like I I own gold and silver I haven't bought it in gold and silver significantly since 2010 but I haven't sold any gold and so I'm hoping uh buy more gold and silver in the next year or two silver is you know trading at multiples where it's 75 times cheaper than gold isn't it a good buy at that level well his on a historic basis silver certainly is cheaper at the moment than gold I own some silver I plan to buy silver and gold see he's carrying silver he throws it on the table I got my silver and I certainly will buy more gold and silver when the time comes yeah well I really appreciate it I think that this crisis is going to be worse than we ever seen I don't think anybody has a clue as to how bad it's going to be there looks like there's nobody to bail this out this time they will do the same old things they did before they will try to drive interest rates and even lower negative rates but Sheldon you have to remember Mrs Yellen says it's not going to happen says there's something wrong with you and with me for saying that well if I have some the same thing wrong with me that you have that I'm in good company well we both have the same thing wrong compared that's right you know in 30 or 40 years whether she was Rock Road we never have another Financial price does it not pay right now then to be a little contrarian if everybody thinks it's going to work out in the stock market's at all-time highs and bond markets in the U.S under any circumstances not now uh if you have to buy shares Japan is down 50 from its all-time high China's down 50 from its all time our bush is hated they're markets in the world that are not racing off to all-time highs if you have to I shared I don't have to buy shares I'm not buying shares if I find something I certainly would don't get me wrong but it's uh hard to find for me to find something that is compelling in July of 2017.
final question is liquidity so Bill gross is on record everybody says the financial system is a truckload of nitroglycerin Going Down a Bumpy Road this guy is the top guy in bonds extensively in the United States Bond King and he says when people start to sell there's no buyers for these markets on the other side and when they go back to the bank the banks don't have it that's the same thing we saw in 08 what about the sort of ability to have possessions outside of the U.S banking system outside I.E physical metals or whatever well everybody should certainly have reserves in other countries and in other Assets in other places there's no question about that but he is right and once they start selling the central banks can buy can try to buy but Japan is already part of the Japanese Central Bank has already bought nearly all the bonds in Japan I guess they can buy even more but eventually your currency is debased and run when that happens so I would and which is another reason I would expect the next prices to be worse than in the past because now we're going to have even more currency prices than we did before you know the euro is not very not very credible anymore the yen is under a cloud because it's all this money printing that they've been doing you know the Japanese Central Bank is not just bought all the bonds they're buying stocks we've got a huge number of stocks ETFs they buy yes in Japan so it's very good Insight I don't know what they're going to do it seems like a central bank bubble and Bubbles pop uh America's first two central banks disappeared for a variety of reasons this one I hope will disappear too because they're making such horrendous mistake that we will get rid of this central bank now a world without central banks has its own sets of problems but these central banks are making the world much much much worse so we'll be better off with no Central Bank rather than these central banks and then we can start over again great well thank you so much for your time it's really nice to meet you thank you
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