원문 보기
Ultimately, this will lead to a bond crisis. You know, before the national debt crisis. The only thing that will stop this debt train is, you know, a crash. But until then, we will continue: now we have slightly crossed the 40 trillion mark, but we will go to 45, 50, 60, 70 trillion, until there is a complete collapse.
Maybe it will happen before we reach 45 trillion. You know, I do n't know. I don't know exactly where the line is where everything will break. I think emerging markets look very attractive, as do many of their companies. You need tools to protect against inflation. You need to own assets, not paper promises, because they won't even be worth the paper they're written on, as inflation will destroy their purchasing power.
No one is charging you for this. This never shows up on your pay slip or bank statement. And yet, every year, a portion of what your money can buy quietly disappears. You earn the same amount, save the same amount , and the same basket of groceries somehow costs more. This invisible theft has a name, and that's why gold and silver are once again part of every serious conversation about money.
The strangest thing is that this is no coincidence. Economist and gold advocate Peter Schiff notes that the Fed's goal is to let your money lose about 2% of its purchasing power each year. This is a plan, not a failure. Schiff's argument is that reality is much harsher than this plan. It points to a 1.3% jump in producer prices in just one month, which is about 17% year-on-year.
This is what makes the situation difficult for those watching from the sidelines. If the Fed continues to raise rates, gold could remain under pressure in the short term. But if the Fed raises rates aggressively, it will have to face something much bigger: debt. He calls it a time bomb and believes the dollar's days as the world's reserve currency are numbered, although he admits he doesn't know how many are left.
You don't have to agree with him to notice: central banks around the world are buying gold, not dollars. As inflation relentlessly erodes purchasing power, let's take a look at Peter Schiff's analysis and understand why he believes rising debt and falling confidence in the dollar could strengthen gold's long-term appeal .
We have been losing purchasing power since we abandoned the gold standard. This process is simply accelerating. In fact, even the Fed admits that their goal is to lose only 2% of purchasing power per year. So, by design, we are losing purchasing power. But I think we are losing it much faster, and the Fed has lost control.
Look at the numbers that came out today. Yes. regarding producer prices. If we take September's growth, an increase of 1.3%, then this is 17% annual inflation at the wholesale level. And, obviously, this will affect consumers, because businesses always pass on their costs to customers. And the CPI numbers we got yesterday were bad, but these numbers are worse, which means future CPI numbers will be even worse.
So this is a big problem, and an even bigger problem is that the Fed can't do anything to stop it. Nothing that would be politically possible. Because we would have to raise interest rates so high, shrink the money supply and balance sheet, that we would collapse the entire economy, which is built on a foundation of debt and artificially low rates.
So, we are in a very, very dangerous situation right now. Well, ultimately, it will be a bond crisis. I mean the sovereign debt crisis. That's the only thing that will stop this debt train is, you know, a crash. But until then, we will move on. We're a little over 40 trillion, but we'll get to 45, 50, 60, 70 trillion until we have a full explosion.
Maybe it will happen before we reach 45 trillion. You know, I do n't know. I don't know where the breaking point is. I only know that it is there, and we will eventually find it, because we will not stop until we find it, because there is no political incentive to avert the crisis. All incentives are aimed at anticipating a crisis.
So a crisis is inevitable. The dollar's reserve status is the reason why we were able to build up such a large debt and why we were able to do it at such low interest rates. Now this process is changing. But yes, I do believe that the dollar's days as the world's reserve currency are numbered. I just don't know how many days that is, but it's a lot less than it used to be.
Well, I mean, obviously you can own silver. So, in addition to precious metals , you can invest in real assets in general. You can invest in companies operating in the resource sector. These are mining companies, not only with precious metals, but also with industrial metals, agriculture, and energy.
And to the extent that you can find bargains even in technology, well, just real assets. I think emerging markets and many of their companies look very attractive. You need inflation hedges. You need to own things, not paper promises, because those promises are not worth the paper they are written on, as inflation will eat away at their purchasing power.
So, well, again, I think we don't know for sure if this is a bubble. So, it definitely looks like a bubble, but we don't know because we don't really know what the return on capital spending on AI will be. So if it turns out that the companies making these investments can actually make enough money to make a good profit, then it's not a bubble.
But it's possible that they're spending too much. That they won't be able to generate that much income. And in the future, there will be a lot of competition that they don't know about yet , from companies that will be able to provide AI at a much lower price because they haven't made such a large initial investment.
So, we don't know. That is, there is this idea: if we don't do this, we will lose. So there's an arms race to have as much computing power as possible and build all these data centers. But we don't know. Look what happened to all the railroad companies that were created at one time. And many of the assumptions that were made turned out to be wrong.
Yes, the railroads changed the country, but many people lost a lot of money on their investments in them. And, you know, the same thing happened recently with the Internet. Look at all the crazy assumptions that companies that went bankrupt made. But the internet has definitely changed our lives. AI has the potential to change them even more.
But we will see whether the investments made today will pay off in the future, or whether many of them will turn out to be a waste of money. We, we, we don't know. But in the meantime, I know for sure that regardless of whether these investments pay off , we are now bearing the costs of making them.
And these costs must be borne by society. If we're going to invest trillions of dollars in developing AI, what will we have to give up? Where will this money come from? After all, you know, they don't come from nowhere. What will we not finance? What wo n't we do to make this happen? And what short-term burden do we bear before we get the payoff?
Before we get all this extra performance. Because, you know, before a bridge can benefit you, it has to be built. And while you're building it, it's of no use because you can't use it. So, when the bridge is finally finished and transportation becomes more efficient, with goods and people moving from point A to point B faster, it can increase productivity.
But for years while you build it, you don't get the benefit of the bridge, instead you have to work hard to create it. So nobody really asks these questions because all these governments, especially the US government, but not only it, have all this borrowed money. Everyone is in debt. And now, if all these companies want to borrow trillions to build AI, well, interest rates are going to go up significantly.
But who can afford to pay such high interest rates? When you already have so much debt, the key to supporting the US national debt was low interest rates. That's the reason we could afford it—the rates were so low. Well, you know, we have a national debt of $40 trillion. Let's say in a couple of years it will grow to 50 trillion.
What if interest rates are 8%? That's 4 trillion a year. This is 80 % of tax revenues. How can we spend $4 trillion a year paying interest on the national debt? The budget deficit would be 6 or 7 trillion a year, because all this money would have to be borrowed. Isn't that right? The only way to pay off 4 trillion in interest is to borrow that 4 trillion.
So, this increases the national debt. So look, there 's a time bomb here that could explode at any moment. According to economist Peter Schiff, the clearest signal is not on the stock chart at all. He is in what ordinary people feel. Schiff says consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in 75 years of observation.
Whatever the official claims of an economic boom, he argues, shoppers are behaving as if this is the worst crisis they have ever experienced. Schiff points to the big banks that were bailed out in 2008 because they were "too big to fail." Now they are even bigger, but in his opinion, their financial situation is terrible.
And this is where it gets interesting about gold and silver. Schiff argues that the Fed will be forced to lower rates to bail out banks, even despite high inflation. Lowering rates in the face of inflation is a move that usually weakens the dollar and makes real assets more attractive. And now for the twist that could change everything .
Schiff acknowledges that there is something that could ease the pressure, and that is AI, which makes things significantly cheaper. Imagine that technology reduces prices by 20% per year. If the money supply continues to grow at the same time, you will barely notice it because prices will still look like they are creeping up.
In his opinion, without additional money issuance, prices would fall, and this would be good for everyone, since businesses would spend less on production and customers would spend less on purchases. Let's get back to the interview. I think the banks, I don't know if they all fell by 20%, but the financial sector is suffering a lot.
Many consumer brands are taking serious hits. You know, utility stocks… the ones that are doing well—they're related to technology, AI, and energy. The energy sector is also showing good results. But most stocks in the S&P index have fallen more than 20% from their peaks. So most of them are by definition in a " bear" market.
And I think a lot of smaller companies are struggling right now . Higher interest rates affect them, as they do consumer spending. The level of consumer confidence is at its lowest in history. This is the lowest figure in 75 years of statistics. This means that consumers are more worried now than during the Korean or Vietnam wars, the Watergate scandal, the oil embargo and crises of the 1970s, the hostage-taking in Iran, or even during a pandemic.
How come consumers are so alarmed ? They are probably under so much stress from rising inflation, the rising cost of living, and high interest rates that they are extremely concerned about their situation. And, of course, this contradicts President Trump's false claim that we are living in the greatest economic boom in history.
Because the consumer is behaving as if this is the biggest economic collapse in history. I, I think all the banks that we bailed out in 2008 because they were too big to fail. Now they are much larger. Yes. Because of that financial aid. But, in my opinion , their financial situation is worse. Like I just said, they hold all these mortgages.
That is, not all, but most of the 8 trillion mortgage loans, which have 2 trillion unrealized losses, are in banks. But they not only have trillions in losses on mortgages, but also trillions in losses on Treasury bonds and other long-term debt instruments that they have on their balance sheets. And as rates continue to rise , these losses continue to accumulate.
This is part of the problem with the Fed raising rates. The more they raise rates, the more affected banks' balance sheets become. And when these banks start to fail, and they do, like Silicon Valley or Signature Bank, their mortgage portfolios will have to be liquidated, and then these unrealized losses will become real.
So this will put a lot of pressure on the Fed not to raise but to lower rates, despite worsening inflation. And when they do, inflation will get even worse. Yes, they have a similar problem. Not identical, but look, look at France. Look what's happening there now. France has almost the same debt- to-GDP ratio as we do.
So there is a big problem there. And, you know, there are many other countries in Europe that have the same problems. Look at Japan. Look what's going on there. Look at all their debt. The stakes are rising. In short, payback is coming for all the states that lived in debt and sold too many bonds. They all tried to seize the moment while the sun was shining.
This was great because interest rates were low, so they kept borrowing and lending without considering the consequences that would inevitably befall them when rates rose. After all, they couldn't stay low forever. Eventually they had to grow up. Therefore, the crisis we are heading towards was inevitable from the very beginning.
That's why I've been warning about this for so long. Because , you know, of course I wanted governments to do something to avert the crisis, but I was quite sure that they would n't. But I wanted to at least raise awareness so that people: A) could do something to protect themselves, and B) so that when a crisis happens, I can't just say, " I told you so." But so that I can explain why.
That the crisis was caused by the government and central banks , not by some internal flaw in capitalism. If we really had capitalism, the conditions that gave rise to the crisis would never have arisen. They only arose because of socialism, because of state intervention in capitalism, and because of the way they distorted markets and inflated bubbles that inevitably always burst.
Yes, this is a very realistic scenario. The only thing that could change it is if the productivity gains from AI are so staggering that prices start to fall. And if there were no such inflation, prices would fall much more. Let's say AI is so productive that it causes prices to fall by 20% per year.
That is, everything becomes 20% cheaper every year. Well, if inflation is, say, 22%, then we have 2% inflation. Yes, prices are still going up, but if we weren't creating all this inflation and printing so much money, prices would come down a lot, which would be a good thing. Because it's always good when the things you want and need become cheaper.
And this is not bad for business, because not only the prices at which they sell fall, but also production costs. So businesses can earn more when prices fall if their margins remain the same. Because even if the margin does not change, sales volumes increase when the price falls. So, everyone wins when prices go down.
The government , on the other hand, benefits when prices rise, because they are the ones who create inflation. They are the ones who put new money into circulation. So, what does this mean for gold and silver? It's not a magic shield and certainly not a guaranteed win. The price of metals can fluctuate wildly, and no one can guess the exact peak or bottom.
But they are outside the banking system, outside government promises, and outside the debt machine. And that's why they attract attention every time trust in these things begins to waver. If market weakness, banks and a stressed consumer are telling the truth, then you'll want to know what will protect your savings before the next headlines appear.
So, if paper money loses some of its value every year, would you invest a small portion of your savings in gold? Or do you think that gold's best days are behind us? Write your answer in the comments below. If this video gave you something to think about, like it and subscribe so you don't miss the next one. See you in the next video.
댓글 0