저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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2017년 12월 영상에서 Peter Schiff은 금 가격이 2018년에도 상승할 것이라고 봄, 다만 정확한 시점은 알 수 없다고 함. 금 가격 전망: 중앙은행의 통화 공급 확대로 인플레이션이 커지면 금이 인플레이션 헤지로 다른 가격보다 빠르게 오를 것으로 봄. 금은 Fed 금리 인상(2015년 12월 이후) 이후에도 '벽을 타고 오르며' 하락 기대를 뚫고 상승해 왔다고 설명. 1700달러(Echo Bay Partners 전망)에 대해서는 맞을 수도 있고 더 오를 수도 있다고 불확실성을 인정. 금리 및 달러: Fed가 2018년 2%, 2019년 2.5%, 2020년 3%까지 올릴 신호를 줬지만, 실질금리는 인플레이션 때문에 하락하고 명목금리 인상은 너무 느리다고 주장. 미국채 10년물 금리의 유로화 헤지 수익률이 역대 최저 수준이며, 유럽 투자자 기준 음(-)의 수익률이라고 언급. 금리가 더 낮아질 것으로 보고 달러는 유로 등 주요 통화 대비 계속 약세일 것으로 전망. 세법 개정: 감세 법안은 세입 감소로 재정적자를 키워 Fed가 국채를 더 많이 매입하도록 만들어 달러에 부담이 될 것이라고 봄. 근로자가 독립계약자로 전환하고 주정부가 세목을 바꾸는 등 행태 변화로 적자 영향이 과소평가됐다고 주장. 비트코인: 금이 그동안 횡보해 비트코인이 상승했다고 보며, 금이 본격적으로 오르면 비트코인 버블을 터뜨릴 수 있다고 주장. 비트코인을 '바보의 금'으로 비판. 리스크/조건: 금 상승 시점은 불확실, 금리 인상 실행 여부도 불확실. 2018년 실제 흐름과 무관하게 발언 당시 기준.
다듬은 글
despite rising interest rates or jump in cryptocurrency prices a new report from the World Gold Council says gold prices will continue upwards in 2018 to talk more about this we're joined now by Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital and chairman of Schiff gold Peter in the world Gold Council report chief market strategist John Reed points to increasing global income as a reason we could see gold rise but where exactly is income rising enough to make that much of an impact well member a lot of the income is a function of more money right if people earn more money because central banks create more money they use their additional incomes to bid up prices for everything so I think a lot of prices are gonna be rising not just the price of gold but I do believe as more people perceive the threat of inflation and see the dangers of what the central banks have been doing I think the price of gold will rise faster than a lot of other prices as people embrace it as a hedge against inflation and as a store of value well thence Lancie the founder of echo Bay Partners said that we could see gold prices hit $1700 per ounce in 2018 which would be a $450 increase from the current price we see now do you think he's right I don't know I mean you know I don't know how quickly the price of gold is gonna rise he could be right but it might go a lot higher than that but it might not quite get that high I mean I think it's going higher I think eventually it's gonna take off right it's hard to know exactly when that is going to happen whether it happens in 2018 or 2019 or 2020 but I don't think you have to know in order to profit from it I think you just have to buy it because I think that the path of least resistance for gold is up and it's been creeping higher ever since the Fed first started raising interest rates back in December of 2015 everybody's been expecting the price of gold to go down yet it continues to climb the wall of worry but at some point you're gonna get more buyers coming in off the sidelines and the price is gonna take off but before that happens you know just buy it now well earlier this year we saw gold rally after the Fed announced increases in the short-term interest rates and the Fed has signaled a rate rise of 2% for 2018 2.5% in 2019 and 3% by 2020 so going into 2018 with that in mind what kind of price fluctuations should we expect in gold or silver well what regardless of what the Fed is is posturing it's hard to know if they're gonna deliver on those rate hikes but even if they do it's gonna be against the backdrop of rising inflation where real interest rates are actually declining even as the Fed is nudging up nominal rates much too slowly you know if you look right now at the yield on US Treasuries in Euros hedged back to the euro it's at an all-time record low you know not too long ago you can get 250 basis points of yield in Europe buying US Treasuries and hedging your currency risk today if someone in Europe buys a US Treasury the yield is about negative 60 basis points so despite these rate hikes the yield on Treasuries is lower not higher and I think that yield is going to go even lower as the dollar continues to fall against not only the euro but just about every other currency on the planet well the dollar is down as Congress is pushing hard to get a bill in front of President Trump before the holiday break so do you think investors eyeing the dollar in gold are starting to maybe worried over the actual impact of the new tax bill well they should be worried if they're not worrying now because what this tax bill is going to produce is much larger deficits because while there is some relief from taxes there are some tax cuts here it's not tax reform it is tax cuts but the tax cuts are going to deplete revenue coming into the government as government spending is increasing unchecked and in fact I believe they are under estimating the impact on the deficit because a lot of Americans are going to change their behavior as a result of the changes in the tax law to take advantage of the loopholes that they are opening up a lot of people who are now employees are going to become independent contractors and they're actually going to pay 20% lower taxes than what is being assumed when they are a judge impact and I also think a lot of the states are going to change the way they tax their citizens I think they are going to lower their income taxes on wages and salaries and instead have taxes on employers who pay way using salaries the impact on the employee is the same but what it means is that now the employer can deduct those costs on their taxes and so the government is not going to raise anywhere near the revenue they think from the limitations on the Sault deduction so you're gonna see a huge impact on the deficits which are going up anyway so rising budget deficits are very barriers for the dollar because they mean the Fed is gonna have to print a lot more money to buy up all the bonds that the treasurer is going to have to sell to replace the tax revenue it lost some have suggested that Bitcoin has been responsible for Gold's depressed returns but others say that it can be Bitcoin because the two assets have different uses so what do you think the cause of recent depressed returns on gold are well I think you've got the tail wagging the dog I think one of the reasons that Bitcoin has been so successful is because gold has done nothing really it's been so quiet the last year and I think a lot of people maybe who might have bought gold have bought Bitcoin but I don't think that has done much to depress the price of gold but I think that has done a lot to cause the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket and I think probably one of the most dangerous things for Bitcoin if you're involved in that bubble would be a big increase in the price of gold because once the price of gold starts to move now people want to own real gold they don't need to own what they believe to be digital gold but what I believe is is nothing more than fools bold and so gold going up could really be the pin that pricks the Bitcoin bubble Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital and chairman of ship gold thanks so much for your time today
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