저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Peter Lynch의 강연 발췌. 부채가 없는 기업은 파산하기 어렵다고 설명. 가격이 떨어졌다는 이유만으로 매수하는 실수를 경계함. Polaroid와 Kaiser Industries 사례를 들어, 하락 후 추가 하락이 계속될 수 있음을 보여줌. 주식은 보유자를 모르므로 기업 펀더멘털을 이해하고 악화되면 매도해야 한다고 강조. 장기 보유가 최고 성과를 낸다고 언급.
다듬은 글
It's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt. One one of the things I find a rule I I a couple rules I want to throw out I find [clears throat] useful excuse me is a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much how you know how much further can it go down I remember when Polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record if it ever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's gone from 135 to 100 it's out 95.
What a buy. Within a year, it was 18. And this is a company with no debt. I mean, this is a company, it was just so overpriced, it went down. I did the same thing in my uh I think my first or second year of Fidelity. Kaiser Industries had gone from $26 a share to 16. I said, "How much lower can it go at 16?" So, I think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever on the New York on the American Stock Exchange of Kaiser Industries at 14.
I says, you know, it's gone from 26 to 16. How much lower can it go? Well, at 10, I called my mother and said, "Mom, you're going to look at this Kaiser Industries." I mean, how much lower can it go? It's gone from 26 to 10. Well, it went to six, it went to five, it went to four, it went to three. And uh now I unfortunately this happened rapidly or I would probably be still catting or you know working at the stop and shop.
But I it happened fast. I was able to this compressed and at three I figured out you know there's something very wrong here because Kaiser Industries owns 40% of Kaiser steel. They own 40% of Kaiser aluminum. They own 32% of Kaiser cement. They own Kaiser Broadcasting. They own Kaiser sand and gravel.
Kaiser engineers. They own Jeep. They own business after business and they had no debt. Now, I learned this very early. This is might be a breakthrough for some people. It's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt. It's it's tricky. It's a real It's a real achievement, but they had no debt.
And the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million. At that point, it was equal to buying one Boeing 747. I said, "There's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million." I was a little premature at 16, but I said, "Everything's fine." And eventually this will work out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders.
They they passed out shares in Kaiser cement. They passed out shares in Kaiser aluminum. They passed out their public shares in Kaiser steel. They sold all the other businesses and you get about $50 a share. And but if you didn't understand the company, if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16 and then it got to 10, what would you do when it went to nine?
What would you do when it went to eight? What would you do when it went to seven? This is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it. then it went down and they don't know what to do now. Here's another one you hear all the time. It's $3. How much can I lose?
I have had people call me up saying, "I'm thinking of buying the stock at three. How much can I lose?" Well, again, you may need a piece of paper for this, but if you put if you and if you put $20,000 in a stock at 50 or your neighbor put 20,000 at full at 50 into the stock and you put $20,000 in at three and it goes to zero, you lose exactly the same amount of money.
Everything. And people say it's three. How much can I lose? Well, if you put a million dollars on it, you can lose a million dollars. Just the fact a stock, this is the only, this may be a reason to research a stock. The fact a stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should buy it. And in fact, short sellers, people that really make money in stocks, they don't short Walmart.
They don't short Home Depot. They don't short the great companies, Johnson Johnson. They short stocks down from 80 to seven. They'd like to short it at 16 or 22, but they they figured out at seven that this company is going to go to zero. They just haven't blown taps on this thing yet. It's going to zero.
And they're selling it short at seven. They're selling it short at six, at five, at four, at three, at two, at one and a quarter. And you know, to sell something short, you need a buyer. Somebody has to buy the damn thing. And you want to who's buying this thing? It's these people saying it's three.
How much lower can it go? You know, so the important thing is you can't get too attached to a stock. You have to understand there's a company behind it. You can't treat this like your grandchildren. No, you have to deal with the stock and say I understand the company and if they deteriorates, if the fundamental slip, you have to say goodbye to it.
You have if one rule you want to remember is the stock does not know you own it. This is this is a breakthrough. So don't get, you know, you have to understand it and say they're doing well and as long as they keep doing well. My best stocks have been my fifth, sixth, seventh year I own them, not my fifth, sixth, seventh day. So you have to understand that and uh stay with
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