저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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2022년 1월 신규상장(IPO·스팩) 주식 대량 매도의 원인은 연준 긴축 우려이며, 상장 종목 과잉 공급이 겹쳐 시장이 무너졌다고 진단함. 2022년 신규상장 644~661개 중 실적 흑자 전망·합리적 밸류·양호한 재무구조를 갖춘 종목은 약 61개(약 10%)로 추려짐. 주요 검토 종목은 Perella Weinberg(PWP, 8배·배당 2.9%), Dole(DOLE, 8배·배당 2.5%), Traeger(COOK, 17배), Solo Brands(DTC, 10배), Holley(HLLY, 14배), Sun Country Airlines(SNCY, 16배), Open Lending(LPRO, 18배, 다소 비쌈), Endeavor(EDR, 상장가 위) 등. 그 외 Platinum/Nextors 등 모바일게임주, F45·Exponential Fitness(짐주식 회복 가능성 제기), SoFi는 14달러 지지선 돌파 후 은행 인가로 긍정 평가. 글로벌파운드리(GFS)는 상장가 아래지만 좋은 회사라고 언급. HUGS(판매 예정 스팩)는 비추천. 반도체 관련: 램리서치·테라다인·인텔 실적 우려로 반도체 전반 매도 흐름이며, 일부 칩메이커는 잘 나가고 일부는 버려짐. 전망: 신규상장주 시장 혐오는 과도하며 무차별 매도 후 옥석 가리기 매수 기회 도래 가능성, 다만 시장 바닥 시점은 불확실. 연준 긴축 전까지는 실적 흑자 종목이 먼저 바닥을 칠 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
everybody wants to blame the fed for the markets meltdown over the last couple of months and there's some truth to that but at the end of the day the feds only lit the match the spark that led to a conflagration of selling not just because j-pal wants to hit the breaks in the economy but also because the stock market already had tons of dry kindling that was more than ready to burn i'm talking about the mountain of recent ipos and spac stocks with next to nothing propping them up i always like to say that all markets are controlled by supply and demand including the stock market when you get a record number of ipos like we did last year roughly 440 of them and a record number of awful stock mergers that are like faux ipos about 200 that creates a stock clut we could handle this new supply just fine when the fed was still our friend but once jpal started talking about imminent rate hikes the stock market collapsed under the weight of all this new paper like i pointed out last night there are vast swathes of the market where stocks have been cut in half and many of these names are either spac plays or recent ipos because investors want out and who can blame them a lot of this is just garbage honestly the present moment feels a lot like the year 2000 when the three other companies that came public during the dot-com period suddenly went out of style and then disappeared and we have no idea when this kind of paint is going to end but if the dot-com bomb is any guy there are two things you need to keep in mind one most of the new issues will never fully recover two a select few of them will be able to pull through and eventually search new highs call them the amazons they're down there those are the ones we need to try to find buy and weakness you just need to know how to identify the beaten down potential winners from all those losers fortunately there's absolutely no hurry the recent ipo and spac stocks are still in the doghouse i don't see that changing anytime soon but it's never too early to start keeping a lookout for the ones that might make sense as long-term investments because i'm a big believer in rigor i want to take a systematic approach to filtering out the wheat from the oceans of chaff and right now the best filter is profitability because when the fed is tightening wall street loves earnings and disdains everything else that's conceptual so how many of these newly public companies are making money i mean actually not bookings not revenue but real earnings i think the profitable ones will be the first to bottom whenever the carnage comes to an end although that could take a while and of course it turns out there aren't very many proper ones to begin with when you filter out all the specs and all the quirky instruments we had with 440 traditional ipos last year although two of those have already been acquired so now it's 438.
on top of that we had six direct listings so back up to 444. then you've got to add the spac mergers the companies that came public by merging with a special purpose acquisition vehicle if a spac is a blank check company then these post back names are what happens when the blank check gets spent looking at the deals that have closed it gives us another 205 stocks now we have a total of 649 new listings no wonder we have a stock clut that's a horrendous amount of unseasoned supply like a fire hose going off in your sink when you're brushing your teeth needless to say most of these stocks have performed hardly so now let's talk profitability how many of these beaten down stocks are expected to make money this year that's a tricky question for the purposes of our analysis we're going to assume that any new listing with no analyst coverage has basically been set up to fail or the 649 new issues 559 of them have earnings estimates which equates to institutional sponsorship and among those 204 actually have positive earnings estimates for 2022.
that's a lot more than i expected however many of these earnings uh per share of forecasts are barely positive that's why i want to throw in another screen valuation of the 204 ostensibly profitable new issues 129 of them have price journeys multiples below 30. 92 of them sell for less than 20 times earnings and 35 actually sell for less than 10 time series hey that's cheap so cheap but i start to worry that something's real wrong so let's stick to the 129 that are selling for 30 times earnings or less of these 31 are too small to talk about on television we also eliminated two chinese ipos because historically they're terrible next we looked at the earnings estimates for 2023 and removed any company suspected to have a down year because those are potential value traps then we screened for bed balance sheets in the end we were left with the listing 661 companies okay 61 new listings with actual earnings reasonable valuations and non-horrible balance sheets that's right one-tenth of what we started with may actually be any good one-tenth so let me highlight the ones that i think are let's say notable first is perella weinberg partners which is a boutique investment bank that now trades at eight times this year's earnings estimates this is a rare space stock that pays a dividend supports a 2.9 percent yield second dole the fruit and vegetable company uh now their most recent quarter was not so hot but a packaged food play feels like a kind of fit in the current environment especially when dole sells for eight times earnings with a 2.5 percent yield although i've never liked it historically in all its different forms third platika and nexters are both mobile game developers we mentioned the former last night and with take two paying up to empire zynga i'm feeling confident about this sub group those things interesting to me fourth is traeger now i've been dead wrong dead wrong on these grill stocks and these guys have some supply chain issues but with the stock in the single digits trading at 17 times earnings it could be a keeper i'm more sanguine about number five those solo brands the outdoor products company with the stock that sells it 10 times earnings i like that six is holly makes after-market auto parts for high performance vehicles this is one of the rare space stocks that's above 10 but it's not exactly expensive selling for 14 times earnings and it's got steady growth holley's a real business unbelievable a spark with a real business seventh we've got a pair of gym ipos that i am shocked you're doing well f45 training and exponential fitness well that 45 stock has struggled exponential fitness has actually had a nice run i think they both work once we get over omicron eighth sun country airlines very interesting it's a smaller feisty leisure company stock that now trades at 16 times earnings down substantially from was high but you know travel ninth there's open lending that's a technology company that helps businesses make auto loans fintech is in the doghouse here but as the auto industry recovers from its supply chain was maybe it gets based on come back 18 times earnings probably too expensive finally i like endeavor that's the parent company of wme the talent agency that represents yours truly along with img the sports media and fashion company and ufc the mixed martial art league what makes me like it right now the streaming services are all at war with each other over talent and endeavour controls the talent plus unlike uh most of these uh stocks this is actually up from its ipo price hey by the way you know another one's up from this idea price but it was too expensive as dutch bros i just couldn't include it but i think it's got great momentum so anyway you're looking at this is it here's the bottom line this is it out of the 600 plus i don't know this market hates new listings and it despises the specs and it's all for good reason because they're junk but eventually this indiscriminate selling will create some buying opportunities and that happens you should be aware that the market has fallen far enough that there's actually a few companies that might let's just say be i don't know interesting quarry in new jersey cory hey jim how are you doing i'm doing well corey great great to hear that i'm calling today about sofi yes so fi curious if this is a good time to buy it recently broke past the 14 support level right um but it did get the bank charter which should make their costs you know i got to take i could not believe this stock after rallying i mean boy this market hates anything but this stock rallied it should have and now it's given up all the rally and then some nine billion dollar company run by a really good guy anthony notto i think it works let's go to dan in new jersey dan hey kramer i'm just wondering what your thoughts are on ticker symbol h-u-g-s which will be forming hopefully panera bread in a few months you know what it's a blank check company the answer is i don't want it let's go to frank in new york frank jim how are you i'm an eagles fan in upstate new york so i'm with you on a lot of things good to have you there what's up we need the eagles nation up there what's up that's it jim uh you've had tom caulfield the ceo of global foundries on the show of number of times and i know we're a few weeks away from their earnings call but with the shares trading below the ipo price i just wanted to get your take on the company and shares at this time today was a day where everybody said that the semiconductors were going to be in glut they didn't like what they didn't like what land research said they didn't like what teradyne said they didn't like what intel said and they're selling everything global foundries is a very good company and tom crawfield's going to do a very good job but i cannot put you in the house of pain that everybody else is in at this very moment right the market hates the new listings most of them deserve to be hated the market hates the spax they should really be hated but eventually indiscriminate selling will create buying opportunities i looked at sick we looked at 600 more than 660 companies and here these are some of them are okay when that you know when things let's say when there's a shakeout you gotta keep your eye on things that might represent actual value much more may have moneyhead including my exclusive with actual value new core could the steelmaker be the kind of stock that we've been talking about that works in this market i'm checking in with the ceo then not all chipmakers are created equal i'm talking about three of the big players and two of them are being thrown out just like i just told that gentleman a few minutes ago and all your calls rapid fire tonight's edition of the lightning round so stay with kramer you
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