저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 영국 모기지 리셋과 정부 부채 누적으로 거시 충격이 임박했다는 비관적 시각이며, 비트코인에 대한 구체적 가격 전망은 없다. 영국 모기지 리스크: 영국 모기지 자금의 약 40%가 이자만 내는 변동금리(ARM)이며 내년 1월 약 4%로 리셋된다고 주장. 미국도 ARM 월 상환액이 300bp 오를 것이라 언급. 부채와 통화정책: 미국 부채/GDP는 오바마 시절 100%를 넘었고 정부는 계속 돈을 찍어 부채 문제를 미루는 중이라는 비판. 만기 연장, 100년 국채 발행 가능성 언급. 영국 금융시장 사례: 트러스 총리의 대규모 감세·재정지출 발표 후 파운드 급락, 영국은행(BOE)이 영국 국채(gilt)를 무제한 매입하며 시장이 원상복구. 금융 안정이 금융 타당성보다 우선되었다고 평가하며, BOE가 곧 140bp 금리인상을 예고했다고 언급. 연준과 정책 신뢰: 연준은 투명성의 모범이나 정책 실패 시 중앙은행이 계속 구제해 정부의 책임성이 약화됐다고 주장. 2008년 이후 정치 양극화도 이 구조 탓이라 봄. 세대 부 집중: 미국 베이비붐 세대 약 6백만 명이 전 세계 부의 상당 부분을 통제한다는 주장. 건강 관련: PCSK9 억제제 등 차세대 약물 언급, 건강이 곧 부라는 메시지. 비트코인·자산 방향: 제목과 달리 본문에서 비트코인 가격 전망은 명시되지 않음. 금리·부채 위기 시나리오에 따른 구조적 불안정 우려만 제시.
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uh you know I'll give you a crazy example you know what happens to all the people in the United States that are on armed mortgages right adjustable rate mortgages when those things reset they're going to reset two 300 basis points higher their monthly payments are going are going to go nuclear it's already happened I've literally had a family member call me about this and they were like what do I do so in the UK in the UK 40 percent of all mortgage dollars are interest only arms that will reset in January to around four percent 40 can you imagine how upside down the UK economy is going to be when people have to spend three and four times more to keep their home and I'll tell you why these people keep because you can print more money you print more money I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news but like it is not as if we have a law a constitutional law or it's not as if governments have collectively decided that you cannot have debt to GDP uh above a certain number that doesn't happen guys we passed 100 under Obama and we've just kept printing money so whether we like it or not and I'm not saying I'm a fan of this or it's right we are kicking the can down the road and what we're doing is we're extending the maturities you know you'll eventually have 100 Year government bonds okay just like you have like now you know multi-decade long corporate bonds I think the list trust thing is really actually a microcosm of how unfortunately Western governments are working but I think there's a silver lining like she basically came in a day after she got elected and said okay guess what guys at the same time I'm I'm going to massively cut taxes and I'm going to give you fiscal stimulus I'm going to cap your energy bills and I'm going to have these huge transfer payments from the government into the hands of uh of uh British citizens I'm not going to comment on whether that's right or right right or wrong but the financial markets to your point David absolutely hated it and within a few days you basically saw the pound get crushed but then what did you see you saw the bank of England decide that Financial stability was more important than financial viability meaning the things that she wanted to do were not viable so you could have let the financial Market sort this out which would have forced the prime minister to basically abandon the policy but instead the Boe said now we're on the unlimited buyer of UK guilts which is the name of the UK Bond and everything snapped back we're back to where we were before her speech and before the chancellor of the exchequer speech and so it's as if nothing happened and that's what's so insane to me which is that even though the bank of England by the way in the next week or two are going to raise rates 140 basis points 140 basis points almost double what the FED has done the last three times and then this Something's Gonna Break like all these guys are saying I think they're right and then the fed put comes back on the table and we'll have this we'll have the UK you know the UK thing happened in what six days ours will play out over six or nine months but it's gonna play out the exact same way and freeburg's right you know we should have capped debt at you know 100 of GDP or less and sax is right we should have issued 100 Year bonds and zero rates when we had the chance we didn't do either of those they're not competent are they just not competent no I think they're really I think they are competent but I think that they're a little bit fighting with one hand type behind their back I think if you had to take the other side sax you know the problem is they have a very specific strain of data that they focus on and that data has all these weird anomalies to it like you know they should look at rent data but the way that the rent data works is that you know you bleed it in one-sixth a month over six months just as an odd example or like use card data only comes in a certain way so I think that if you went to a board of directors meeting for your company and said how's the business doing and the CEO says well you know well we're going to have data from six months ago and it's like okay I got that but what about like last week uh you would fire that CEO to your point Jason um and these things are knowable today like there are businesses for example that are selling billions of dollars worth of like iot sensors here and there energy sensors here everything is connected to the internet everything is automated everything is running in code um you would think that the government would say there's a national level directive here to get this into some kind of a system that we can use because these decisions are becoming more and more important I think that would be a wonderful idea and a project and what had huge value well to your point to your point like there's the the FED is actually known as the gold standard of transparency so the IMF has kind of like a a view in how all these central banks act last week they actually uh excoriated and this is good this hurts me to say Canada because of their lack of transparency apparently Canada doesn't even put out minutes and so they were like hey Canada you uh you guys like yeah and you know little Canadians are I mean the Canadian government at least like total moral virtue signalers but they don't value transparency apparently but to your point David there is a lot of opacity in these things that really determine how the real world works and the impacts the individual people are going to go and get ratcheted way up and nobody really knows what to expect even though the data is there sitting in plain sight but the thing about zurp which if you look back what really happened if you think about like how people live their lives every day what what if what has happened in our view of government and politicians it's really eroded since 2007-2008 right there's huge amounts of rancor nobody gets along everything tends to happen on partisan lines and the reason I think that that was allowed to happen or that accelerated is actually because of zurp because if you think about it if you had failed policy right and the economy was completely broken politicians would actually have to get together and try to solve the problem themselves and the last time they really did that was actually in the great financial crisis if you look at tarp and if you look at how all of these smart people actually had to get together in a bipartisan way to figure out how do we bail out America and prevent a banking crisis that was the last real effort that touched a lot of people but then David as you said on the heels of that we broke the glass and we've been fighting ever since and the peak of that fighting was basically Donald Trump getting elected and so I think like what it shows is that if you have these irrational Central bankers that will are that are willing to constantly bail people out you will never get a high functioning government because policy is irrelevant good policy doesn't matter I think the policy doesn't matter if any of it goes wrong the central Banker will come in and bail us out what brilliant controlled by 76.4 million people yeah so if you want to really talk about the you know the rich in a global context the rich are very specifically U.S Boomers six million people how much of it is their homes I mean they were they were at Woodstock they you know they lived the best life in the best times they enjoyed the most of the peace dividend in the 80s and the 90s and the 2000s they are the ones that control everything it's pretty crazy it's I think it's less like Jeff Bezos and Gates and musk it's Boomers that if you want to go and really zoom out and get it right it is Boomers it's one percent of the global population that controls one seventh of the global wealth and they're all in the united U.S Boomers Wilkins never did it for me Billy corgan's voice was always like ah yeah it was great really annoying Rage Against the Machine I've given the message uh before yeah before but like you know take care of your health yeah take care like there there are these incredible drugs I just want to call out Health as wealth if Lipitor for example or Crestor or these statins are not working for you there's this next Generation kind of drug called the pcsk9 inhibitor which essentially is uh effectively a gene therapy that's modeled after this very specific group of folks in the nordics I believe who actually have effectively immunity against heart disease and so it's taken 20 years to refine this drug but this drug is a wonder drug and you know
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