Warren Buffett On: Graham Value vs Moat companies and managing small portfolio

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버핏과 멍거는 소액 자금이라면 싸게 거래되는 저평가 기업을 발굴해 큰 수익을 낼 수 있지만, 운용 자금이 커질수록 기대 수익률은 급격히 떨어진다고 말한다. 과거 실적: 버핏은 1956~69년 연평균 약 29%(다우 약 7%)의 성과를 냈고, 멍거 대화에서는 1950년 말 이후 10년간 연평균 약 50%라고 언급했다. 이는 과거 설명이므로 예측이 아니다. 투자 접근법 변화: 초기에는 경쟁우위나 경제성은 덜 보고 저평가 종목을 많이 사서 빨리 팔았고, 자본이 커지면서 유리한 장기 경제성을 가진 우량 기업을 사는 방식으로 바꿨다. 현재는 미래 현금흐름 대비 가장 싸게 팔리는 기업을 찾는다. 소액 투자 전략: 소액이라면 탐색 범위가 넓어 10,000~15,000달러로 극단적으로 싼 종목을 찾을 수 있다고 말한다. 다만 자금이 수백만~수억 달러로 커지면 가능한 아이디어가 급감한다. 월스트리트 비판: 똑똑한 사람들은 쉽게 돈 버는 방법을 찾고, 최근 월가에서 큰돈은 뛰어난 수익보다 과대 홍보로 벌어졌다고 지적한다. 헤지펀드 창업 소식과 투기적 분위기에 대한 우려도 나온다. 멍거 견해: 현재 시장은 과열(mania)이며 쉬운 돈에 대한 추종, 투자 상품의 오도성 판매 자료, TV의 주식 투기 조장이 지나치다고 평가한다. 리스크/조건: 소액 투자자에게 기회가 있다는 전제는 기업 분석에 충분한 노력을 쏟는 경우에 한한다. 대형 자금의 기대수익률은 낮아진다. 대상 자산 가격 방향에 대한 단기~중기 예측 발언은 없다.

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01. ask you this question last week when I ran into you after Gillette's annual meeting but I choked so now there's no pressure here goes in the years from my reading in the years from 1956 through 69 you achieve the best results of your career quantitatively twenty-nine percent annually against only seven percent for the Dow the approach then was different than now you look for lots of undervalued stocks with less attention to competitive advantage or favorable economics and sold them rather quickly as your capital base grew you switch your approach to buying undervalued excellent companies with favorable long-term economics my question is if you're investing a small sum today which approach would use well I would use the approach that I think I'm using now of trying to search out businesses that where I think they're selling at the lowest price relative to the discounted cash they would produce in the future but if I were working with a small amount of money the universe would be huge compared to the universe of possible ideas I work with now you mentioned that 56 to 69 was the best period actually the my best period was before that was from right after I met Ben Graham in 1919 51 but from the end of 1950 through the next 10 years actually returns averaged about 50 percent a year and I think there were 37 points better than the del pari or something like that but that I was working with a tiny tiny tiny amount of money and so I would pour through volumes of businesses and I would find one or two that I could put $10,000 into her $15,000 into that was just ridiculously cheap and obviously as the money increased then the universe of possible ideas started shrinking dramatically the times were also better for doing it at that time but I think that I think if you're working with a small amount of money with exactly the same background that Charlie and I have and same ideas same saying whatever ability we have you know I think you can make very significant sums but you but as soon as you start getting the money up it into the millions many millions the the the curve on expectable results falls off just dramatically but that's that's the nature of it you've got a you know what you've you when you get up the things you can put millions of dollars into you've got a lot of competition looking at that and they're not looking as I did when I started when I started I went through the pages of the manuals page by page I mean I already went through 20,000 pages in the Moody's industrial transportation banks and finance manuals and I did it twice and I actually you know looked at every business I didn't look very hard at something well that's not a practical way to invest tens or hundreds of millions of dollars so I would say if you're working with a small sum of money that and you're really interested in in the business and willing to do the work you can you will find something if you were I you there's no question about it my mind you will find some things that promise very large returns compared to what we will be able to deliver with large sums of money charlie well yeah I think that's right a brilliant man who can't get any money from other people and is working with a very small sum probably should work in very obscure stocks searching out unusual mispriced opportunities but you know you could that's such a small world it may be a way for one person to come up but it's a it's a long slog yeah most smart people unfortunately in Wall Street figure that they can make a lot more money a lot easier just by one way or another you know getting an override on other people's money or delivering services in some way that people and the monetization of hope and greed you know as a way to make a huge amount of money and right now it's very just take hedge funds I mean it's I I've had calls from a couple friends in the last month that don't know anything about investing money they've been unsuccessful everything else said you know one of them called me that ain't said well I'm forming a small hedge fund 125 million he was talking I didn't like the thought that since there's only hundred 25 million maybe we ought to put in 10 million or something I mean if you looked at this fellow's schedule D on his 1040 for the last 20 years you know you'd think he ought to be mowing lawns but yeah but he may get 125 million I mean you know it it's it's just astounding to me how willing people are during a bull market just to just to toss money or cuz they you know they think it's easy and and of course that's that's what they felt about interest and it sucks a few years ago thinking about something else next year too but the the biggest money made you know in Wall Street in recent years has not been made by great performance but it's been but been made by great promotion basically Charlie yeah well I would state it even more strongly I think the current scene is obscene I think there's too much mania there's too much chasing after easy money there's too much misleading sales material about investments there's too much on the television emphasizing speculation in stocks zone shop