Warren Buffett On: Sell a share or Hold it Forever

요약 보기

버핏은 주식을 가능한 한 영원히 보유하는 것을 선호하지만, 사업의 경제적 특성이 바뀌면 매도한다고 설명한다. 매도 기준: 기업의 장기 경쟁우위가 처음 매수 당시보다 약해졌다고 판단될 때 매도한다. 기업이 망할 것이라는 뜻은 아니며, 맥도날드는 여전히 좋은 미래가 있다고 본다. 과거 매도 사례: 40~50년 전 매도는 대부분 더 좋은 투자 대상을 발견했기 때문이었다. 현재는 돈보다 아이디어가 적은 것이 아니라 돈이 아이디어보다 많은 상황이라 매도 빈도가 다르다. 보유 사례: 워싱턴포스트(1973년부터), 코카콜라(1988년부터), 질레트(1989년부터), 아메리칸익스프레스(1991년부터) 등을 장기 보유 중이다. 버크셔 주식은 1962년 첫 매수 이후 한 번도 팔지 않았다. 신문·네트워크 TV 사례: 1970년의 신문 사업은 거의 난공불락으로 보였으나 2002년에는 같은 경쟁우위가 아니라고 판단했다. 이런 판단은 점진적으로 변한다고 설명한다. 현재 상황: 특별히 싼 시장이 아니므로 지금은 매도할 이유가 없다는 입장이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. my question is you have said that your favorite time to own a stock is forever yet you sold McDonald's and Disney after not owning them for long how do you decide when to hold forever and when to sell and also are you and mr. monk are wearing fruit of the loose Charlie I think I better answer the question I can answer unequivocally I'm wearing fruit of the Loom and I'm not sure whether Charlie wears underwear yeah I am I haven't bought any new underwear in a long time and therefore I'm in appropriately attired he's waiting for a discount don't let him kid you well the answer it's very good question about selling I mean we it's not our natural inclination to sell and on the other hand and and we have held the Washington Post stocks since 1973 I've never sold a share of Berkshire having bought the first shares in 1962 and we've held coke stocks since 1988 we've held Gillette stocks since 1989 of American Express stock since 1991 we had actually previously been an American Express when in the 60s and Disney so there there are companies who are familiar with we generally sell I would we would sell if we needed money for something else but that has not been the problem my last 10 or 15 years that 40 years ago my sales were all because I found something that I liked even better I hated to sell what I sold but I but I also didn't want to borrow money so I would reluctantly sell something that I thought was terribly cheap to buy something that was even cheaper those were the times when I had more ideas than money now I've got more money than ideas and that's a different equation so now we sell really when we think that we've when we're reading the economic characteristics of the business in other words if you take them don't want to name names but take take it take a stock we've sold of some sort we probably had one view of the long-term competitive advantage of the company at the time we bought it and we may have modified that that doesn't mean we think that the company is going into some disastrous period or anything remotely like that we think McDonald's has a fine future we think doesn't he has a fine future and there are others but we probably don't think that their competitive advantage as as strong as we might have thought as we thought it was when we initially made the decision that may mean that we were wrong when we made the decision originally it may mean that we're wrong now and that their strengths are every bit as what they were before but for one reason or another we we think that the strengths may have been eroded to some degree either classic case on that would be the newspaper industry generally for example I mean in 1970 that Charlie and I were looking at the newspaper business we felt it was about as an impregnable a franchise as could be found we still think it's quite a business but we do not think the franchise in 2002 is the same as it was in 1970 we do not think the franchise of a network television station in 2002 is the same as it was in 1965 and those beliefs change quite gradually and and and who knows whether they're precise you know whether they're right even but but that is the reason in general that we sell now if we got into some terribly cheap market we might sell some things that we thought were cheap to buy something even cheaper after we bought lots and lots of equities but that's not the occasion right now Charlie nothing to add he's been practicing for weeks