저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
개인투자자는 자산 배분과 자신의 멘탈 역량을 고려해 투자 금액을 정해야 하며, 투기성 소형주·스크랩캡 투자를 경계해야 한다. 2003년 이후 강세장이 길어지고 약세장이 짧아졌다고 본다. 2025년 3월 시점 중소형주 중 다수가 고점 대비 50~70% 하락했고 이익 감소가 없다면 가치 조정 후 회복 가능성이 있다는 입장이다. 단기 자금을 주식에 넣지 말고 장기로 운용하라고 조언한다.
다듬은 글
Hello friends welcome to my this is the Brahma Vakya I think what I understand is that it is written you should test these things anytime so the new person who comes here, sir, do n't come to the stock market by dreaming, you think that I will come and break everything, I will become a husband, I will become a millionaire, I will win this, I will win that, this can never happen, this is not a Raj Kapoor movie, he will give you a house in the form of Shri 420, so by saying this my opinion is that every new person should start his career, sir, start with mutual funds and then keep weighing yourself, first do market trading or opportunity investing or increase your knowledge, invest three to four years in the stock market, after that slowly try to do that, try direct investment, first of all, secondly, the answer to your question, I don't have the answer to this, sir, whether one should do averaging or what should be done because when we talk about stock market, we Let's talk about the 5000 script.
I have a quote, sir, that there is large cap, there is mid cap, there is small cap, there is another cap which is called scrap cap. So, within the scrap cap, out of the 5000 or 6000 listed shares, 90% of the shares are scrap cap. Sir, if 5000 are listed, then 4000 shares are scrap cap. The new people who come invest in those scrap caps only, saying, tell me a stock worth ₹100, tell me a stock worth 50, they will go to the management only.
They do not know, that is what attracts them that maybe this is where I will be ruined, within this I will become a billionaire. So, there are so many myths here, sir, in the stock market, that it is difficult for me to say this. I wanted to say, which script do you have, should you average or not? I do not have a generic answer to this, no, you should average now, I do not know which shares you have.
It depends share to share, there is a thumb rule that if any market falls by 50-60% from the top, whichever index may have fallen even at 15, it has now fallen to 60, 60, 50, 70, then if you think that its earnings will not decrease, its earnings growth is high, the earnings will increase, only its value has been adjusted, its high PI or its phoria has been adjusted, such shares should do well, this is the thumb rule sir, but this is a big answer to this, it depends script to script, it is better you take advice from a consultant, Mike please hello Vijay sir my name is Choksi not from Geetanjali no sir, that is then we meet in London, then you sir my question was that recently you had said in an interview on TV media that bear is getting complex and bull market keeps getting bigger, that is, it keeps getting bigger, so on that front can you give some fruitful details, sir I felt so and see I Whatever is personal or mine, whatever I have seen in front of me, I am sharing that with you.
You people also know, some are not very educated like Shankar Bhai Ji, Bharat Sir, you people also know it very well, so I have understood that sit down Sir, before 2003, in whatever bull market and bear market there used to be, bull markets were small and bear markets were big. After 2003, there was a dramatic change, there was a structural change in the bull market and for the first time in my life, as per the history I have read, that the bull market could run, from 2003 to 2007, till 8th March or whatever it was, that was a long bull market and such a big crisis came that the crisis of Lehman Bridge will be written in history in golden words, such a big crisis came in India, the entire worldwide crisis came, within a month the bear market ended, that is, the top became the bottom and the market revived from there, it happened in a month, even after that You should understand that what could be bigger than COVID?
The biggest tragedy of the century was that bear market, which ended within nine months. So, I have come to understand that this bull market season, this bull market, has started getting longer and the bear market has started getting shorter. If you look at this bull market, the data from 2009 to 2014 will show that this is not a bull market.
2000 people say it started in 2014, but you all will know that you can go back and look at your data. Even between 2008 and 2014, there are such shares which have increased 20 times, 30 times, 50 times, which according to technical data is not called a bull market. Even within that, shares increased 50-50 times, so I mean, this is a very complicated matter.
So, in my opinion, I feel that the world has seen such a big crisis and within nine months, the bull and bear market changed, hence I feel that the bull market is getting longer. Bear markets are shrinking. This market which had made a top, made a top in September, on September 21st, October 23rd, something like September-October.
This market made a top, but even after that some stocks continued to rise, but if you look at March till April-June, as we have just discussed, there are many mid-caps which had already fallen by 50, 60, 70 by March, and they have fallen by March 2022, and now with the market which is falling, they are supporting them a little, so my personal view is that I may be wrong that perhaps this bear market should also end in a month or two, I do n't know until less, because then it is difficult to speak confidently about everything, Abhay, they talk about recession, they talk about stagnation, all new steps come, new things happen here, so all this will continue here, I think I do n't put that much thought into it, all my structures of stocks are like this, bear markets are shutter And bull market is becoming anchor here mic please doctor kartik bhai I also have a song sometimes DI sometimes FI inflation sometimes oil sometimes dollar sometimes rain is this a game of all these or short term there are many names here just be a little bit careful in trading my darling heart is simple earning here if long term only long term only long term my darling what is the matter good evening sir my question to you is that you see extra large opportunity in cotton textile manufacturing going forward in future Indian cotton cotton textile manufacturing not coat sir it is a little difficult for me to speak what about cotton textile they have played till date I do n't know I haven't done anything in 203 years and this too sometimes cotton kills one thing I have understood sir if you do direct investing then in any sector which has a lot of moving parts, a lot of moving parts, it is very difficult for a small investor like us to catch in it which has a lot of moving parts like cotton textile understand Or understand that these are our metal sectors, now in steel sometimes iron kills, sometimes coking coal kills, sometimes China kills, sometimes Brazil kills, sometimes whoever comes and hits them, similarly in cotton textile sometimes sir I don't know sometimes quota of Europe, sometimes Vietnam, Thailand, China, sometimes cotton prices are currently at an all-time high, so it is difficult for me to talk about them, sir I had made an investment in Chota Ambika Cotton, if you may ask about it, if you are talking about it, then after taking it I gave me a very good return, it is 40-50% below the price for me, so by saying this right now I lost so much money, it was fun, I am enjoying it right now, sir, I do not have any idea about it in Enel, do not do content which has too many moving parts, sir, simple theory is very much available in the stock market, good evening sir, I want to ask one question, your biggest mistake i.e.
not company wise, investing mistake, the one you keep in mind every time that from me One should not make a mistake in selecting a company, what is that and the second thing is how much stop loss do you place, like I have incurred this much loss, even if the company is very good, but I can withdraw this much from here and invest it in another company, till where can you enter, 15, 20, 50, 40, but till where, see sir, I believe this and I do this, I never place a stop loss in investment because it is possible that my quantity may be more, for this I think the theory of stop loss should be in trading and not in investment, many people, many of my friends who manage funds, they say that when it goes to 20 or 30, I sell, then I say that when you sell, then I will come to buy, so sir, how will you place a stop loss in investment, I do not understand this mathematics, I should place a stop loss in trading, this is the first thing, what was your first question, I forgot, this is like investing mistake, investing mistake Like the mistake you make when you select a company, if you have made a mistake in the past, yes why do you rectify it, investing mistake, investing mistake, mistakes keep happening, friend, I do n't mean mistakes, mistakes are those from which you don't learn anything because you have to pay money here regularly, so in my opinion, we keep learning mistakes, we keep refining ourselves, okay, that is, when I was born, I used to think of myself as Rajesh Karan, then I started thinking of myself as Akshay Kumar, now I start thinking of myself as Ranbir Singh, so I am definitely grooming myself, my people, so mistakes are an ongoing process, every person makes different mistakes, sir, you have to understand your mistakes yourself, you have to write them down, you should understand them and write yourself that I made this mistake and I am not doing it further, if I can answer their question this, yes, yes, perfect, we can have one last Question: For a middle class investor, what percentage should be the ideal asset location according to you?
Mid investment. According to you, what should be the investment strategy for a mid-sized investor? Right location sir. How is asset allocation done? Sir, look at your own risk. Sir, I have a quote: Money is not earned with money in the stock market. People who think that money can be earned in the market are wrong.
Money is definitely needed. You need capital, but your mental capacity is more important than your financial capacity. I have seen people here that people can earn 500 crores from 5 lakhs and I have also seen people with 500 crores failing here. This means never try to earn money from money. So, what is the reason for this, sir?
People are not able to understand their own mental capacity. If I go to the gym and lift a 50 kg dumbbell, if you lift a 50 kg dumbbell after seeing me, then it may be that it may not suit you. You should understand. It is that yes, I will start with 15 kg from today and gradually I will increase 15 kg to 20, 20 to 25, then I can even lift 150 kg.
People do not do this, they just want to copy people that if he has bought 5 lakh shares, then I will also buy 5 lakh shares, then they will buy 5 lakh shares, they will buy penny stock shares because they want quantity that I have 5 lakh shares of one company in my demat, so this means asset allocation, you have to understand yourself sir, till what extent your mind can bear that weight, till the time you are able to sleep at night, till the time you are not fighting with your wife, till the time you are not slapping the children, if there is a loss, then till then you are going in the right line, but the moment your mind changes there, your behavior changes after buying shares, it means you have bought more shares than your capacity, so asset allocation has a direct relation with your risk taking capacity and you should invest only that money in the stock market which is worth your money.
You don't need at least two to three years. If you invest thinking that I will invest today and I will take this money after three months or six months, then you are doing wrong. You have to keep the money here for the long term only. You have to invest that money by understanding that you do not need the money.
Then you will automatically get the answer to your asset allocation that I do not need this much money for a year, I allocate this much money for assets. You will get this answer from there Sir. One final question before we have the next rapid fire round. Hello Sir, my name is Darshan. Whenever this Covid came, the market fell very quickly, then an immediate safe recovery was also seen.
This happened for the second time also. Ukraine crisis came, the market fell and immediately came up too. Stock prices also fell and stock prices came up quickly. But how has the market been this time? Nifty is not falling that much, but if you are looking at the stock prices, then all the stocks have gone out of 50-60.
The market will come up quickly, Nifty also made a new high. Will the stock prices be able to come up again so soon? Look sir, it is like this. First of all, you should understand that I believe that Nifty is deceptive. Nifty does not give you the correct indication of the stock market. Nifty has 50 shares and Sensex has only 30 shares in it and you do not work in them at all.
So how can you judge your portfolio by looking at them whether your portfolio is wrong or right. You are talking about Nifty, the Nifty which had earlier given a V shape victory, if you see that the index doubled from the bottom, but the shares in midcap which I mentioned a while ago, increased five times, 10 times, 20 times, so even there they outperformed Nifty.
I am talking about individual shares. Similarly, when this market has fallen, Nifty has fallen less, but the same shares which had increased five times, seven times
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