저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 게임스탑 급등은 월가의 체제 변화 신호이며, 개인투자자 자금 유입으로 주식 밸류에이션(PER)이 상승할 것이라는 강세 전망. 개인 자금 유입: 지난 10년간 미국 가계 저축 약 3조 달러 중 94%가 채권에 들어가 가계는 사실상 주식 숏 상태이며, 이 자금이 주식으로 이동하면 전체 시장을 끌어올린다는 주장. 밸류에이션: 2011년 트리플C 채권 수익률 10%→현재 7~12%로 하락(채권 랠리)한 사례를 들어, 투기등급 채권이 투자등급 역할을 하듯 주식 PER도 상승할 수 있다고 봄. S&P500 PER은 30대 중반까지 갈 수 있다는 전망. 20배는 비싸다는 통념 반박. 실적: 올해 S&P500 주당순이익이 컨센서스(약 193달러)보다 높은 약 200달러 이상이 될 것으로 추정, 영업레버리지와 보복소비 수요 강조. 자금 규모: 향후 10년간 가계가 약 3조 달러를 추가 저축하고, 그중 다수가 주식으로 가면 총 6조 달러 유입 가능, 50년 내 최대 규모 주식 유입이라 주장. 비트코인: 기관투자자가 대량 매수 중이라 언급하며 비전문 투자자가 발견한 시장이 입증됐다고 평가. 출연자 Dan·Tim(해당 패널, 소속 미상): 게임스탑 등 숏스퀴즈 종목은 펀더멘털 거래가 아니라 위험하다며 경계. XRT(리테일 ETF)의 상위 편입 종목이 게임스탑(5.3%) 등 투기 종목으로 쏠린 점을 지적. 대안으로 XRT 풋옵션·풋스프레드 등 헤지 제시. Tim은 XRT가 11월 중순 이후 S&P 대비 33% 초과수익을 냈다며 그 조정(리버 타이드)을 기다리고 단기 숏 기회도 있다고 봄. 전체적으로 리스크 관리와 여유자금 투자 강조.
다듬은 글
Shares of GameStop, it's surging after hours. Of course, it is. The move coming after Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted GameStop with two exclamation points with a link to the Wall Street Bets Reddit thread on GameStop. Our next guest believes the stock's epic move will likely signal a regime change on Wall Street.
Tom Lee is head of research at Funstrat Global Advisors and the newest CNBC contributor. Tom, welcome to the family. Welcome to Fast Money. Yeah, thanks. Um, I'm excited to be uh part of the family and now you guys will teach me that secret handshake for free drinks. Yeah, offline. Offline we'll do that.
Um, Tom, is there a regime change going on? Uh, yeah. I I think GameStop is is telling markets there's a really bitter pill to swallow right now. And I think it's the same pill that the bond market had to take in 2011. Um, and if I could explain, it's uh, you know, I think for the last 10 years, out of the $3 trillion that people saved, 94% of it went into the bond market, which means today households are synthetically short stocks.
I think now some of that money is flowing into equities. And when money comes into equities, it really lifts all boats. And so I think the fact that we've got a class of retail investors uh armed with cash and I think they're going to get more cash and over the next 10 years it's you know potentially three trillion of cash um it's going to change the dynamic around stocks and potentially valuation.
Can you extrapolate what this might mean to the broader markets Tom? Because right now we're seeing it in a handful of stocks which people may not be trading in whatsoever may be inadvertently in um through various ETFs etc. But beyond a GameStop, beyond a Blackberry, beyond iRoot, beyond, you know, all of these heavily shorted stocks that have seen wild rides, how does this impact the broader markets?
Uh, I think in general PE is going to go up. And look, I can give you a very concrete example. Triple C bonds in 2011 were trading at 10%. And that's a historically low yield for a a very junky speculative grade bond. on a JP Morgan you couldn't even there was no research issued on triple C bonds and today those triple C bonds now trade at 7 12% so they've actually rallied monstrously further and 7 and 12% is about where investment grade bonds traded on average for almost 30 years so speculative grade bonds have become the new investment grade in terms of yield well I think that's what could happen in equities that we could see a stratification of PE and I think Overall, if people think 20 PE is expensive, I mean, in the bond market, you know, it created a lot of took people out in stretchers who thought bonds were expensive in 2011.
For 10 years, they got even more expensive. So, I think PE could be a lot higher. And I think that's why you want to be synthetically long stocks for a while. When do you think your colleagues on Wall Street, and I use the term colleagues, just you know, other strategists, other investment professionals will acknowledge the power of this class of investor?
Because to date, it seems like there's a little bit of condescension when talking about this Reddit rebellion. This is crazy. This is mob mentality. These people don't know what they're doing. They may not do the research, but the fact of the matter is, and I'm just speaking from their perspective, fact of the matter is they've made a lot of money on GameStop and a lot of these stocks.
And if you take a look at some of the other sort of, you know, stratospheric rises that we've seen in the past couple of years, whether it be a Bitcoin or a Tesla, the retail cohort had gotten these stories right from the beginning, even as Wall Street turned their nose up. Uh, absolutely. I I'd agree.
I mean, first of all, um, the wisdom of the crowd means price is what we have to understand. I think a lot of people think their business is, oh, I can tell the stock market what to do. They cannot. The stock market is telling us the signal. And if someone who's a professional investor thinks only fundamental investors trade, that's a mistake.
For the last 10 years, the average stock was held for 40 seconds. No one can tell me that a professional investor is fundamentally deciding every 40 seconds what to do. I think the majority of markets is based on expectations of the future. the retail investor is having a huge impact. Of course, it's going to create, I think, inefficiencies, but those can be exploited by uh other investors.
So, I think people just have to understand this is a wakeup call. It's a bitter pill to swallow, but I think overall it's a very good force. Um, but you're absolutely right. Bitcoin is a great example of non-professional investors discovering a market. It's now proven to be pretty valid. And what are we seeing this year?
institutional investors are buying this handover fist in huge amounts. They could have bought the entire supply of Bitcoin, you know, in 2016 for 1/100ths the price. Thanks for being on, Tom, and congratulations being part of the team. We're lucky to have you. Um, so you've been bullish, rightly so, since I think mid-March.
Is part of your bullishness based on this PE multiple expansion or is it based on the E expansion from a recovering economy? Um Karen, it's a fair question and I think that it's two mechanisms. Um last year uh we thought S&P earnings this year could be $193 which is about $20 above consensus. And if you look at how first quarter is tracking, uh the be is about 25%.
So I mean right now earnings are tracking to be over $200 in the S&P. So uh I think there's a huge operating leverage story unfolding um along with pent-up demand. And then on the multiple side, yes, I I think you know we've gotten used to saying, "Oh, well Fang can trade at a 30 multiple, but everything else should trade at 10 or 15." I think the rest of the market is rerating and I think Fang can obviously see risk premium fall further so multiple can expand.
I I think the overall market's multiple is trending higher and unless retail literally disappears because of regulations I think you're talking about a multiple that could be you know a three a 30 something PE on the S&P. You know Tom a lot of people who look at what's going on with with Reddit and and you know sort of dismiss it or or say this is just a passing fad.
They say it's going to end badly. So from from your perspective, how does this end? Um well, I I think that in just broad numbers, uh I think $6 trillion could come into equities uh from households. Um you remember households control hundred trillion of net worth in America. So there there's a lot of money, but a lot of it's in cash and they put three trillion over the last 10 years into bonds.
you know, a big portion of that can come into stocks, but over the next 10 years, they're going to probably save another three trillion. And if the majority go of that goes into stocks, that's six trillion. The stock market hasn't seen that kind of inflows probably in 50 years. So, I I think that we are in a time where the equity market is becoming the new bond market.
It's a better source of preserving capital because bonds are much riskier to inflation. you know, you're almost earning nothing in yield, whereas you can buy dividend stocks. So, I think the equity market is going to become a lot richer, a lot more stable. And congratulations to all those people making, you know, seeming fortunes overnight.
It's amazing. It is amazing. Tom, always great to get your thoughts. Thank you, Tom Lee, the newest CNBC contributor. A fun strat. um you know a side effect of all this and and we've made the point that if all these people who are in GameStop lose their shirts in this these are this is a cohort that that may never come back to the market.
The correlary to that though is that if they make a lot of money other people who are on the sidelines holding all that cash that Tom was talking about could be incentivized to go into the market guy because they can they see that maybe the little guy can actually win. Yeah, it's a carry-on effect of what we talked about last year.
I think we were one of the first shows that started talking about the gamification of the stock market when there were no professional sports and a lot of those people that typically would bet on sports found their way to the stock market. You know, we talked about Bar Stool, Dave Portoi, and I think this is just sort of 2.0 of that.
And listen, you want people to make money. I we obviously want everybody to do really well. I think it's um a tad terrifying though when somebody like Elon Musk makes a you know an off-handed tweet like that. I mean there are people that will make money on the back of that. There also people that going to get buried on the back of something like that.
I don't think you should be glib in this environment. I know in the last 14 years we haven't been and we won't be. And you know I just think at this point of a name like that it's much more than just retail people getting in. Uh I have a buddy of mine, ex-gman partner texted me, this is reminiscent of Tillray when you saw that huge move.
And I think this is more indicative of a fund or fund uh funds blowing up more than the retail guys and gals uh having their way with the stock with a with an individual name. All right, GameStop is up uh 45% after hours right now. Well, if you think your portfolio is immune from these wild moves that we've seen in names like a GameStop, you might want to take a close look at what you own.
Take the XRT retail ETF for example. It is up nearly 17% in a week. You might think that the top holdings in a retail ETF are names like Target or Macy's, Walmart. In fact, GameStop is carrying the most weight at 5.3% followed by names like Magnite, Blink Charging, Children's Place, and The Real Real.
Dan, you flagged this earlier. That's not what you think of typically when you think of retail, these names. Not at all. I mean, Tim and I were having this conversation. He actively manages an ETF of stocks in a sector that he knows very well and it makes a lot of sense. But when you just have these things like in an XRT, this this point right here where you have all of a sudden Gamestock is going to open tomorrow, it's going to be six or so% of the XRT.
And it really comes back to kind of knowing what is in that ETF that you're trading and and how it operates. So, to me, this is now in the hands of the of those short squeeze people. um you know this is not really indicative of a broad retail basket trading on fundamentals you know and so um listen I I don't get involved in these names like GameStop and everything I think that was a fascinating um quote that Tom had about the average stock was held for I don't know what do you say 40 seconds or something like that high frequency trading has taken over um but if you do want to play these names and you do actually want to define your risk or something like that I would wait into an XRT I would look to kind of buy puts or put spreads or something like that that's one way to do it without getting too caught up in the frenzy here.
Blink, by the way, is an EV charging charging company and it is up 659% in three months. Tim, well, again, you know, Tom brought up regime change and I I don't think he was really talking about this. I think he was talking about retail money on the sideline. Um and and and so we spent a good time the last couple days, a fair amount of time kind of surrounding this one.
um flows over pros or little guys and gals against the hedge funds. Um is is yes on some level and I mentioned you live by the sword, you die by the sword. A lot of short sellers get very vocal uh out there in the press to state their point. Um I I think you have a case here where um what we're trying to do tonight is really articulate the risks.
I I ultimately as an investor believe that that you know this rip tide um is is something that you wait it out and and again you don't fight it. Now in some of these names, all those cliches we've heard about people um remaining solvent uh you know or not being able to remain solvent as the market becomes irrational.
But the point I I think we want to make about the XRT is uh it's outperformed the S&P by 33% since mid November. Um that's not a statement per se on how healthy uh the consumer sector is. We spent a lot of time talking about discretionary retail or big box or things that are doing very well. Um, but I I think our point here is that the XRT, um, which is a massive massive ETF, is now something that I think actually you want to wait out the rip tide.
I actually think there's an opportunity on the short side. I would, you know, and and I don't think you're going to get taken out in the woodshed. Again, define your risk, do your work, only invest um what you think you can lose, but but I think the the move here in retail as a class in that ETF, and I think Dan is saying that as well. Yep. Sheph.
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