저자: Steve및공동출연자 · 외국인
요약 보기
AMD Radeon 상황을 다룬 대담. AMD가 RX 9070 시리즈 출시 전 가격을 $650~700 이상으로 책정하려다 막판에 $600 MSRP로 낮췄으나 실제 판매가는 그 이상이며 초기 물량 상당수가 보조금 및 사실상 MSRP 초과로 유통됨. 리뷰가 호평을 받아 수요가 강하지만 가격 전략의 신뢰성 문제는 지적됨. 향후 슈퍼 시리즈 물량 증가로 연말쯤 MSRP 근접 또는 하회 가능성 언급. 자산 직접 투자 권유 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Okay, so we are talking about the same topic we did last year. Uh Steve here has broken into a bridal suite in Taiwan. We have something to tell you. Relationships going to the next level. It's our second year together. I thought we had to do something special. Oh yeah. And and once again, second year in a row.
Is AMD Radeon actually screwed? We know the CPUs are going well. They they seem to be doing okay there. Yes. I would say things are looking up compared to last year to be honest. I I think things are yeah, massively improved. Probably much more so than I could have ever imagined. I know that sounds like they're really, you know, killing it, kicking goals and stuff, which, you know, depending on how you look at it, not necessarily the case, but they're certainly in a much better situation than they were at any point in the previous few generations.
Well, last time there were some early rumors that they might abandon the high-end. So like the seen XTX might not have an equivalent and so far it doesn't. Uh we had talked about do they need a flagship. We also talked about does AMD need better ray tracing performance. How important is that? So where are we now?
Cuz AMD you and I we both talked about AMD don't this up with with the 50 series disaster. Before that this video is brought to you by Lean Lee and the O1D Evo RGB case. The O1D Evo RGB is an updated entry to the famed O11 lineup, retaining heavy support for fan mounts, drive mount locations, and flexibility on component mounting, such as two options for the power supply.
The 11D Evo RGB's dualchamber approach aims to maximize cable storage on the backside to streamline cable management. Coupling this with a unique vertical GPU mount to showcase the most expensive part in most systems. Learn more at the link in the description below. Did first question did they up and second question uh do you think they are still at risk of it up?
Uh I don't think they did given what they you know what they had available and what they could do because you know you could say they did by not having a 5090 for example uh or 5090 competitor I should say right that was just never going to happen so that is what it is. So I don't think that was necessarily miscalculation on their behalf because I'm not sure how technically viable that was and all the other things.
I don't know that they could make a 5090 competitor. Yeah. So I can't comment too much on that one. Now, the the important one was the 5070 series, and I was certainly very concerned that was going to go pear-shaped. We made a video, I think we made multiple videos, we may have made three or four videos pleading with AMD not to be AMD.
Yeah. And I know you made a video which pretty much said all the same things we said. Not saying you copied us, but you probably did. No, I think we were all on the same page. I actually just re-uploaded your video and then I used AI to swap us. Turn I think it was Tim. turned him into me. So, well, it was good use of AI.
Uh, but no, we're all on the same page. We said very similar things and we were really right about our suspicions with what they were doing. So, I've heard, you know, from some people that made us privy to some internal discussions that right at the last minute at CES they actually pulled the plug on it.
Uh, it was going to be I'm not exactly sure if it was 650 or 700. Some people have said 700 they wanted to charge. Others have said 650. It was one of those two numbers. Well, that whole thing was weird, right? Cuz you you probably got pre-briefed also on the 97. We pre-briefed them in the end like Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. So, so the way a lot of times the way it works is for big keynotes at events typically the big silicon companies will do a pre-briefing. Here's the slides we're going to show. The benefit of that is everyone has more time to sit down and actually read it and think about it and not just race each other to publish something that's kind of halfway put together.
Um, but what was interesting with that one was I remember publishing the video and there were a lot of comments like Andy didn't announce the 9070s and it was it was almost to the effect of like all these guys doing news. They got something wrong. They talk about 970s. They didn't say 9070 on stage.
Yeah. So, it's really weird cuz they they yanked it at the last minute. So, yeah, the plan was to go for at least $650 somewhere between there and $700 US. There was thankfully one AMD employee I've heard that had been paying attention um not just to our reviews but general online sentiment. I'd say I said, "Look, we can't just knock, you know, $50 to $100 off.
We've done that previously and it hasn't worked." And so they decided to play the game. So they did the whole $600 US MSRP, which is not what they wanted to charge. um they wanted at least $50 to $100 more than that, but they played the game and they subsidized the initial wave of cards. And I do think certainly towards the end of this year, I've heard supplies going to ramp up quite a bit and you'll get the super series coming in.
So I think that's when we'll hit MSRP pricing and maybe even for the first time dip below that, which is I know is a big call. Uh but I think that side of things will improve towards the end of the year. But now I've seen some people say, "Well, clearly, you know, Gamers Nexus or Harbor and Box were wrong because they've said they can't charge, you know, more 650.
Like, it's not going to sell well. It's going to be meh, not really recommended, and it's going to tank and just be another AMD Radeon fail, but they're selling for more than that, so clearly you're wrong." True. Yeah. And I've I spoke to some A I can't say who I spoke to. I spoke to some people about this, and basically what's happened is what we expected to happen.
So, they've jerated us somewhat with the price. Yeah. But not in the good direction. Not in the good direction. Um, opposite to what they normally claim to be doing. Yeah. But it got positive reviews. It looked like they were, you know, being the saviors in a way. A lot of online hype. It wasn't just with reviewers.
I think reviewers were probably a bit more cautious than anything. I know we cautioned people about the price, but it doesn't matter what we say. There's the $600 US MSRP. a lot cheaper than 750. This wasn't 900. There were weird things with all that because uh I mean I remember doing the video right after the launch where we kind of went through the launch cycle for day one and you starting the video with like small scrappy savior of gaming startup AMD.
Launch day for the RX970 series came and went for small scrappy savior of gaming AMD pulling itself up by its $163 billion bootstraps. And it told us all that this one is for the gamers. But then you looked at the MicroEnter stock which was really interesting. So we got those stock numbers and it some of the stores it was actually around if I remember correctly like half of the inventory was technically MSRP.
That's an interesting story as well. Yes. And so I heard about some of this also. I think we heard probably the same thing. Yeah. only some of the initial MSRP, like I think it was 40% of the initial wave was subsidized and created all kinds of problems. And some of that inventory was already out in the channel before they officially announced the price cuz some of these cards were showing up in Taiwan in like early January, late December.
And uh that was obviously well before we got the $600 mark price. So the effect there is reviews are largely positive. I think they really were all positive. People are really excited because all they're saying is $600 US and the competing parts are $900 US. So it's a massive price difference and it is legitimized at the start.
Like people are actually getting them for that price. So in your head it's $600. Like I can get one but now demand's so extreme. So oh look, I'll I'll pay $650. I'll pay $700 cuz it's still way cheaper than the alternative. So they just keep selling and people keep getting sucked into buying them at the higher price.
So, by playing the game, AMD has finally had a win. Mhm. Is it a shallow victory? No, I don't think so. Look, from my I don't want to seem like I'm standing here going, "Good job, AMD." You know, fake MSRPs are the way forward. Good job. Like, I I I'm I'm not happy about them. But at the same time, when your competitor is so overwhelming and they're doing that tactic, it's also fake MSRPs.
Yeah. Yeah, and they've tried sort of being more I think people will agree previous generations AMD has been more honest with their pricing. It's been more accurate. The pricing just hasn't been great to begin with. And because they're only, you know, 10% or whatever, 15% cheaper than GeForce, you and I end up basically saying, you know, you can sort of go either way, but you know, you're missing out on these features and they're probably worth paying a premium for.
But in this instance, we did get better RA tracing and FSR4 and stuff. So that really sweetened the deal on top of the attractive pricing. So yeah, it's it's a situation where they said $600, it's probably more like $700, $750, but it still sold really well. Now, if they had have been honest and said, "Look, we're going to come in $700.
We're going to do the $50 off because we feel like that's a great discount." The reviews would have been lukewarm. uh probably just buy GeForce or wait for those cards to come down because you are getting you know a superior feature set. Well, AMD has also established that they're willing to drop the price 50 bucks in a heartbeat if they aren't selling any and that's a big problem.
Um and I spoke to some of their partners and they said look uh they all laughed because I made a big deal out of the 1700 XT. I had an argument with AMD on the phone about that because when it was $900, I had the the thumbnail of it being chucked in the dumpster. As you can imagine, that didn't land super well with AMD.
I was in the rain in Taiwan reviewing that one. So, they didn't like that and I told them on the phone, look, the reason why this sucks is because it's not good value at $900. It's actually a joke at that price. I They told us Whoop, sorry. They told us they had the most 7900 XTs to sell. Okay. Um, so we thought they would make that uh park competitively priced.
And anyway, I told them on the phone, look, the annoying the frustrating thing about this is we've given it a negative review, and I can guarantee you in 1 to two months, it's going to be 700 700 and it was it might have been more like three in the US, but yeah, dropped to 700. I I I think I said 750 to them.
And my contact, who I do get along well with, but he was annoyed at the time. He said, "You know what? I'm putting that in my calendar." and we'll see who's right here. We made some sort of bet. I don't know. And anyway, yeah. He was like, "All right, you were right on that one." So, I said to them, "Look, we don't want to see that again because people don't re-review the product.
It's just this is a bad value product and it stinks." And then they turn it into a great product only months later. And it's really frustrating cuz the we bought the Hellhound, the power color Hellhound for I want to say it was like $720 at its lowest. And that was within months of launch. It was actually really exciting at that price at that time.
And uh and so we did the revisit, you know, okay, we like it now. But then the frustrating thing as an outsider to AMD, you're looking at like, you know, guys, if you had launched at this price, the reviews would have been positive and you might actually have sold them pretty well. Probably would have upselled to the XTX as well, right?
Because they would have sold out and people wanted them. and it has this really positive vibe around the brand and their price, which is what we're seeing right now. Well, and and a lot of consumers, they they might not recheck the reviews, so revisits are less common, but then they also tend to be lower view count.
They don't create the hype you get on day one, right? And so AMD just keeps they well, they kept fumbling it. And uh the 7600 or the X, I think it was the 7600 um that launched just days before Computex that same year or something, the next year. And uh that was the one where they yked the price. $30 like that was going to save it and change everything.
It was $30 lower and it was like 24 hours before launch I got that memo. So they just pissed off reviewers so they were less happy with the product. Uh but I I mean there just wasn't much on offer there really. And I mean like like that's what you could argue some of that's a reviewer problem or whatever.
But like at the end of the day, the message it sends to the consumer is this company is so unconfident in its product and uncertain in its prices that it not only will lower them later, it'll lower them before it even launches, which is insane. So, so it seems like they've maybe learned from that, at least with this series.
Well, but the problem Yeah. I I want to give them credit and I guess they credit where credit's due, but it didn't come easy. Yeah. So, because coming back to what you were talking about with the briefing and everything, they sort of told us they they under embargo said, "Look, this is where it's going to be.
This is the performance. We're giving you guys sort of an early access to it. What price do you think is fair?" And Tim wrote them an essay about what they should charge. And ultimately we said, look, really from a business sense, $600 US is probably going to make the most sense. We'd like to see it even lower.
Um, but we realize you only have so much allocation from TSMC and stuff. So, you know, yeah, $600 seemed like a a pretty reasonable price. Um, and we basically said 650 is like, and you know, the reviews okay, it's not terrible, but not super exciting. And then $700 is like, why don't but the internet might say to you, you guys are just armchair quarterbacking.
You're just armchair running this company. Like you you are right now we're just doing what Lisa Sue does. Who are we to think that we can set the prices for AMD? Who are reviewers to think that they can set the strategy? Well, we're just all entitled. It always comes back. That much is true. That is true.
I I would normally agree with that. And really when we do have these discussions, I kind of sit here sort of saying, why am I advising at all? Like who what the hell do I know? I'm I'm that's all above my pay grade. But then I think when you look at like RDNA2 and we analyze it the way we did, we came to the conclusions we came to and it played out a different way and it seems like we were right.
like if they had have done those things, they could have better capitalized on that situation. Now, yeah, there's the business side of things that we're not fully privy to. So, there's some stuff there, but at the end of the day, you got to start saving well, you got to start saving the brand and building the brand.
And I think from my perspective, too, the business side, whenever a viewer does point out something like, uh, you oh, but they they can make more money with blah blah blah. I don't really care, you know, to me it's like all I care about is for the consumer is a good price or not, does it make sense at the price?
And it's we don't really factor in too heavily the business decisions because they norally just product reviews user doesn't care. Yeah. No, that's right. But when you see them failing time and time again and the things that you're saying they should be doing, they're not doing it seems pretty evident that that would work.
But again, like when we spoke with the partners here at Comex, they were and these are AMD partners, and you would think they would be annoyed that we're trying to drive the price down, but they were very thankful cuz they were like, if this had have launched at cuz some of them told us $700 was the price they were going to announce at Z, which I find hard to believe, but it's also AMD, so would you be that shocked?
No. And they just knew if if it was announced at $700, it would have been poorly received. there wouldn't be much hype around the product and they wouldn't have been able to sell the volume to make the overall profit that they've made. So bigger margins are great if you can sell them. And again, you can point to the fact that they are selling above MSRP and say, well, if they had have set a $700 US MSRP, they would have got that because they're selling at that.
But that's But do you have to adjust for the relative scale though? Because it would have killed the product for sure. Yeah. It would have killed the hype, the enthusiasm. online sentiment would have been radon bad. Well, and the the offset it might be a similar offset in terms of the price over MSRP anyway.
So, all of them are over MSRP. So, yeah, if your if your floor is 700, I I think though I I don't think it would have scaled in sort of like that linear fashion. I think what would have happened is that your review at $700, your review is not going to be great, is it? No. And I don't think there would be any great reviews.
I think there might be some okay reviews. And I think there'd probably be a lot of negative reviews. Like I can see Jay Lionus now going and we would have done the same like what are you doing? Oh, I mean mine mine would have been you're done up. Again, like you don't have to predict an ultimate timeline to paint the picture here.
We had it happen two previous generations. So if if all the reviews are that way and then people like AMD never, you know, miss an opportunity and all that sort of, you know, all those things they say about AMD and then we would have probably been in a situation where right now they're below the advertised MSRP.
So they're actually selling at 650 or 600, right? Thanks, Steve. They've asked for less and they're selling for more. It's like the inverse effect, but I think that would have happened, right? I think we saw it happen the last two generations. That's what happened with the 7900 XT. So, is So, is AMD actually screwed right now?
Right now, well, right now they're not. They're showing signs of actually understanding how to play the game. Again, not something I'm particularly wrapped about for consumers because it is somewhat anti-consumer advertising a price and then that not being the price. But apparently that's the cost of survival seems to be.
So, ultimately we do want competition. we we we want more GPUs and stuff. And so if they can start building the brand now and they can continue not screwing Radeon, then hopefully in a couple of shows from now, you know, we're talking about how well they're doing and sort of not mocking the marketing that seems to continue to make the same insane mistake over and over again.
Yeah. Like tweeting about jading people over price and then doing that later. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I mean I think it's uh I think if they as a closing thought that one of the best arguments I see from consumers is well but it's like the same allocation for CPU and GPU and they can make more and sell better CPUs and I get that but also it's it's an investment from my perspective.
Absolutely. Yeah. It's like a brand building investment. Yeah. a gaming industry, multi-billion dollar industry, and as far as I can tell, each generation their piece of the pie and their profits keep shrinking. Yeah. And if Nvidia is harming interest in PC building where you've got these AMD's got these great CPUs they can sell, but people are just like kind of bummed out about the GPU situation.
AMD is in a position to try and fix that. So, yep. Well, we've got the 96 XT to test and see how that pans out and then see how availability and pricing looks and all that sort of fun stuff. So, uh they seem more optimistic about availability and pricing for that one, but that's all talk at this point in time.
We'll find out soon. We will find out soon enough. So, for now, AMD this time is not actually screwed. Seems like it. And we will reconvene in the bridal suite next year to discuss further. We might progress the relationship. That's right. We might not be able to post this next one on YouTube, but we'll see you all next time. Next time we have to do it in the chapel. That would be funny. We have to.
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