저자: DanIves · 외국인
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우버 상장 첫날 주가가 공모가 대비 하락했지만, Dan Ives는 우버를 1,000억 달러 이상 가치의 플랫폼 기업으로 보며 여전히 강세 입장이다. 상장 첫날 분위기: 초기 임직원·투자자들은 상장 자체를 축하하는 분위기이며, 유동성 확보를 모두가 기다려왔다고 언급됨. 밸류에이션과 강세 논리: Ives는 라이드셰어링, 우버이츠, 자율주행(ATG), 프레이트 등 3대 축을 가진 플랫폼 기업으로 평가하며 1,000억 달러 이상 가치를 주장. 이번 하락은 강세 논리를 바꾸지 않는 기회로 봄. 리프트와의 비교: Marc 측은 리프트가 수익성 경로를 보여주는 기업들(Zoom 등)에 비해 시장에서 하락한 점을 들어, 투자자들이 수익성 경로를 중시한다고 분석함. 사업 구조 차이: 리프트는 미국 내 라이드셰어링 중심, 우버는 글로벌 소프트웨어·물류 네트워크로 다각화되어 있다고 설명됨. 수익성 전망: 향후 3~5년간 라이드셰어링 수익성 달성은 어렵다는 데 대체로 동의. 자율주행과 이츠, 플랫폼 수익화가 장기 강세 근거로 제시됨. 현재는 베어(약세) 측 논리가 우세하다는 평가. 성장 둔화 우려: 경쟁 심화와 보조금 지출로 매출 성장이 둔화되고 있으며, 라이드셰어링·음식배달·프레이트가 좋은 사업인지는 아직 검증이 필요하다는 입장. 출연자 전망: Ives는 거대한 시장 기회가 있으며, 우버가 수익성 있게 성장할 수 있을지는 두고 봐야 한다고 판단. 현 시점 주가 흐름은 약세 쪽이지만 장기 낙관 유지.
다듬은 글
Steve I start with you you've been involved with new burrows and advisors and investors since the early early days is today a day of celebration or the price decline and the relatively underwhelming total market cap is that making it a disappointment well the the entire early employee investor advisor base we all spent time today and the mood is a celebration it's it's it's about the ten year mark almost since the founding of the company and I think a lot of people are just super excited to see the next stage of growth happen and the liquidity and the ability to be in the public market is something that every 100 percent of the employee base has been looking forward to as well dan you know you were pretty bullish going into today I read your note you're talking about a 100 billion dollar plus valuation are you nervous about the way it traded on its first day no or not I mean look definitely a little stumble out of the gate but just given the lift train wreck and what investors saw there that's really the skittishness in terms of this name as well as just the overall tech team but it will get we think it step back some of the parts I view this is 100 billion dollar plus company especially with the three head mantra value ride-sharing eats and freight and as well as autonomous so in our opinion this does not in any way take us away from our bold pieces and on our opinion it's an opportunity in a choppy tech table Marc what do you think it is that his way both on left and on uber relative to where expectations were a few months ago and is it a warning sign for other IPOs to come I think this is a statement about path to profitability and this is a statement to people who put money and the late rounds of other private companies at big valuations which is you got to have a path to profitability and raising a billion dollars is nothing to sneeze about but you look at companies that have recently gone public that do have that path and you look at zoom:1 company we've mentioned a lot over the last few weeks we haven't mentioned today but that stocks up 5% today and take contrast that with uber and lyft and it tells me that paths to profitability and are what investors are looking at and the IPO tape is fine but you got a price it right you got have a path to profitability below 43 again 42 96 down 4 and a half percent so Steve I mean as an investor what do you see is the key difference between uber and lyft and why do you think that they're gonna offer different prospects for investors well as we know lift is domestically focused in the u.s.
they're also very focused on ride-sharing as their primary product uber is diversified they're essentially a software logistics company that's global they have ride-sharing they have uber eats which is the delivery courier business and they have the ATG business which is constantly expanding out into over elevate which is approaching flying VTOL cars in local air traffic and autonomous vehicles so what you have is a software logistics network with the tape of the types of network effects that you would expect from that and then you have lift which is focus on ride-sharing just in the u.s.
so you have a pretty different business at this at this point and can you see them becoming profitable this is a question is pre the sort of autonomous driving years can they become profitable while they still have such big rivals like lyft in the home market or do they have to merge or agree not to continue to undercut each other on price yeah that's the hundred billion dollar question here in terms of whites and a little bit of battleground in stock in terms of those focus on profitability over the next three to five years versus the long term some of the parts on uber look I think it's gonna be very difficult for them in the next three to five years be profitable for ride-sharing you know I think the way that they're Oakley Bravo for the bull is gonna be on autonomous and really eats as well as free the even really the monetization of the platform and that's why right now that from a profitability continues to be far out which is why we're in an unprecedented territory and in our pin you have to use some of the parts where this is going to over the next five seven ten years but no doubt that's why there's a wine the same between the Bulls and the Bears with profitability really front and center yeah bears are kind of winning out right now mark here's my big question it's the total addressable market you know there there's this huge opportunity for growth and ride-sharing and food delivery and disrupting the freight business if it is in the trillions as the company has laid out in its filings to go public I think five point seven trillion on ride-sharing more than that if you add in the other businesses why is revenue growth slowing well it's a competitive marketplace it's a marketplace that's had lots of premium price into it and right now they're having to subsidize a lot of that market and we see duopoly obviously in the states and we'll see other competitors for ubers they go more global I think the the issue right now and this bull bear argument that you're gonna have over the next few years is is deep down as is ride-sharing a good business or taxis a good business is delivery a good business or not are those businesses really good businesses they have eight billion dollars to go play with it and figure out whether it is or is not right now like we said the Bulls may be losing a little bit but it's too early to tell I do think there's a humongous market ahead of them and - can they do that profitably what Dara's got to figure out I put the money on him for now but again the book the Bears have won so far because this is not the splash that everybody wanted you
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