저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 우버 상장 직후 주가 하락 국면에서 크레이머는 우버 적정가를 주당 50달러 수준으로 보며, 단기 악재는 과도하다는 입장이다. 우버 가치와 수익성: 우버는 창사 이래 적자를 기록해 왔고 어떤 기업보다 많은 자금을 조달했다는 지적이 나온다. 크레이머는 우버 주가가 50달러 수준이라고 보며, 매출 200억 달러와 EBIT 50억 달러 수준까지 성장하면 배수를 적용할 수 있다고 본다. 모건스탠리 물량과 공매도: 모건스탠리가 그린슈(초과배정옵션)를 활용해 개인투자자 매수 과열을 억제하려 한다는 해석이 나온다. 전환사채 물량 때문에 파생상품으로 공매도가 가능하다는 언급도 있다. 리프트와 업계 동향: 리프트도 실적 발표 후 약세를 보였고, 현금 소진 우려가 제기된다. 소프트뱅크 비전펀드가 경쟁사에 자금을 공급해 경쟁이 치열해졌다는 분석이 나온다. 소프트뱅크 비전펀드: 손정의 회장이 차기 1000억 달러 규모 펀드를 검토 중이라는 발언이 언급된다. 상장 전 기업에 자금이 계속 공급되면 적자 지속이 가능해진다는 우려가 제기된다. 거시·기타 이슈: 유가 상승(5.9%)이 우버 운전자에게 부담을 준다는 언급이 있다. 보잉은 주문이 많다는 점이 언급되며, 중국 시장 노출도(약 5%) 등 무역 이슈도 다뤄진다. 반독점 논쟁(스탠더드오일 해체, 아마존·페이스북)도 함께 논의된다. 출연자 전망: 크레이머는 우버에 대해 장기적으로 낙관적이지만, 단기적으로는 악재가 과도하다는 입장이다. 수익성 증명 전까지는 주가가 불안정할 수 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
Uber, this is Morgan Stanley posturing. They don't want to say it's hopping, but what does importance... they want to open it. Big accounts will say, "You know what, I'll buy," and use the greenshoe to take this allotment, trying to keep retail from blowing this thing up to $100.
David, the drivers are being hurt by gasoline prices going up 5.9%. Yeah, a lot of them were on strike. We'll have plenty of time to talk about Uber's long-term prospects, but I haven't really heard your expectations yet. This is a company that will lose money for years to come. It has lost money its entire history and has raised more money than any company I can think of before going public.
There's a lot of convertible money going around. If you're not careful, you could easily short the stock against the convert. David, I think the stock is worth $50. Who cares? If the bulls focus on 20% margins down the road, you get a $20 billion revenue number and can raise prices. Uber has about $5 billion in EBIT. You throw a multiple on that, and it's still growing. But I don't know if they can prove they can make money. Some companies that have come public actually have real prospects, but Uber is selling at 30 times... Cisco isn't a great comparison, but Cisco sells at a very low multiple. Uber sells at a high one.
Anybody who's taken Uber public may be tempted to buy Uber, and I think that's what Morgan Stanley is most worried about. If anybody bought Lyft, are they going to be tempted to buy Uber? Lyft fell again after another really poor day following earnings, on concerns about cash burn and how much money they're losing. People knew these companies were losing enormous amounts. What were they thinking? They thought these companies were incubating and would come out with a lot of money. No, they wouldn't even have come public. It's not a great day for Uber. We've said all along that Uber was very focused on Lyft succeeding in the marketplace, because that would ultimately help its valuation. It's gone the other way.
How many times did I come on this show and say this is going to be a horrendous week for Uber? Over and over I said they have to raise capital. You'd be able to short Uber using derivatives. The whole thing is coming at the same time, with the lockup expiring at 12:01 like Cinderella's deadline. David, we'll get through it. It'll be a bright, sunshiny day when we're finished. Put on your Buffett hat, get 80%, and wait. Sit on your hands and let them take the market down, then buy quality stocks. How is that wrong? I told you over and over to raise money, because this was going to be a horrendous week. We didn't know about the Panama City doctrines. It's not a great rendus. So far I don't know what's horrendous. What are we down for the week?
He'll stop it when he feels Boeing is down enough. Boeing is down again today, but it was up a point. He says, "Listen, you've got a lot of orders all over the place," and you keep saying that. Forget it. I'm not helping you. Caterpillar, he said, "Come on, be careful." It's only 5% China. The president doesn't want you doing business in China. When will people understand that he's okay with Nike? His Nike sport is supported by the Ministry of Sport. Starbucks won't be hurt by the lock-in deal, but they're spending about $7 per cup of coffee to build their business. Lots of luck. We keep watching the Dow, though the vice president watches the Dow. If he were in the S&P, it would be a whole different formulation. The S&P is sounding almost exactly like the Dow. Many companies, including 3M, are huge in the Chinese auto market, and the only ones that haven't been hurt at all are the tort companies.
I want to come back to Uber and then move on. Their ability to make money has been impinged to a certain extent by all the competitors raising money from their largest investor, SoftBank. How much have they been giving to everybody? That lets them compete more fiercely against Uber in various markets. They're making money. The Vision Fund has done well, so well that they're now talking about it. Masayoshi Son discussed the possibility, even the likelihood, of raising another Vision Fund. I asked him about it when we met at the end of March. Take a listen: there's a lot of interest I'm receiving from people who would like to invest in our next fund. Could you do it again? Another $100 billion fund? I wouldn't say the size yet, but I'm getting a lot of inbound calls from people who want to come into our new fund. Imagine if he succeeds. The capital available to all these companies that have yet to go public will let them keep losing money for extended periods.
One of the great things is you always hear from these entrepreneurs: "If you'd only let me lose some money, I could dominate." Only one Jeff Bezos exists. We should break up Amazon? Break apart Amazon? That's a useless discussion, David. At one time all we cared about was foreign companies killing us. Now we have these fabulous, dominant companies, and we worry that our own dominant companies are killing us. Shouldn't we be proud? But any trust law worked pretty darn well in this country for a long time. It's not like standing there while you can't get gasoline from anybody else. Break up Standard Oil. I don't think TR would break up Facebook. You have no idea what TR would do. I read a lot about it, I'm sure you have.
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