저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
중동 휴전 불안에도 시장 충격이 제한적인 이유는 국지적 충돌에 그칠 것이라는 기대와 이번 주 인플레이션·소매판매 등 긍정적 재료 때문이라고 진단. 빅테크 AI 투자 확대로 채권 발행 수요가 공급을 감당하기 어려워 금리 상승(고수익률) 압력이 불가피하다고 주장. 미국 주식은 상대적으로 계속 우위일 것이라 보며, 개별 기업은 AI 군비경쟁의 승자 독식 구조로 일부만 성공할 것이라 경고. 전체 시장은 대체로 적정 가치라고 평가.
다듬은 글
We want to discuss the markets and the Fed with Mohamed El- Erian, he's already with us: Professor Ward, Chief Economic Advisor to Allianz and longtime Squawkbox friend. Good morning to you. Um, the truce doesn't look like a truce at all, and I don't know if you think that should or shouldn't affect the markets.
We see that oil has risen a little, but not critically, and while stocks have fallen a little, again, not significantly, at least in relation to the Middle East. We could talk about AI and the commerce around it, but what do you think is driving all of this? So, there is a certain side effect, but it is very limited.
I think there are two reasons for this. First: markets deeply believe that these clashes will remain just clashes. This will not escalate into a full-scale conflict again. This will not lead to a long-term closure of the strait. And the second reason is that there are so many other things to focus on.
And most of what is worth focusing on is positive. So if you put those two things together, the market says, okay, I'll reflect that in Brent at 70 or something, but I'm not going to push it up to 80 or 90 , which is where it would be if you believed that this was much more serious. Do you think this is the right decision?
Yes. I think it will be low-key . I think neither side wants a return to full-scale conflict, but both want to demonstrate it for domestic political reasons. You said there are many other good reasons not to pay attention to what is happening in the Middle East. What are these reasons? What's on your list?
So, this will be an extremely important week. We will receive inflation data. We will see Governor Walsh speak in Congress. We will get retail sales data. And all this against the backdrop of serious transformations that are taking place. So, what do I expect? I expect this set of inflation data to confirm that the inflation cycle has peaked.
That retail sales will remain quite strong, and we will continue to see a fundamental shift to a more modern, forward-looking, and reform-oriented Federal Reserve, leading the rest of the central banks. Let me add one more element to our joint discussion. There's an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal today about the bond market, specifically some of the bonds being sold, frankly, by companies like SpaceX, Nvidia, and other giants, and how much or little demand there is for what is apparently the one industry that's driving all of this.
So if you look at my post in X, if you look at my Financial Times article from a month ago, if you do a very simple analysis of the sources and uses of funds, as we have done repeatedly in the past, it becomes clear: there is no way this bond market can finance everything that tech platforms, governments and other corporations need without increasing profitability.
It just doesn't add up. Of course? And you saw this with Amazon. You saw two things happen to Amazon. First, people had to sell something else to buy Amazon. And yet, last week's results from Amazon's new bond issue were quite weak. Okay, if that's true, what does that mean for stock prices? Of course, no one wants to see higher returns for stocks, but that's not what's driving their prices right now.
Stock prices are driven by the belief that the US will consistently outperform the rest of the world in the face of future transformations. And I believe that this is a correct assessment. Now, how far ahead are they in absolute terms compared to relative terms? It's harder to say, but I have no doubt that they will be ahead in a relative sense.
Going back to the implications for bonds, same thing, right? This tells us that investors want to get more if they are going to finance this, or there is simply not enough money for everyone . There is always enough money for everything. The only question is the price. Yes. At what price? So, funds will be taken from other sources, and what you are seeing now is withdrawals from other assets, other bonds.
The hope now is to attract more money from the rest of the world. But as we discussed earlier, if you look at the traditional sources of funding, particularly for technology, which is the Middle East, they are not going to be as generous as they have been in the past. They have a lot of internal financial needs right now because of the war that is going on right now.
True. Because of the massive rebuilding, and also, like everyone else, they realize they need more resilience. So you see more pipelines being built . You see that much more resilience is being created in the system . And, as any corporate CEO will tell you, sustainability is necessary but expensive.
This is not a comment on Amazon or what they are doing with artificial intelligence or their belief in it. There was just a huge pool of free money looking for somewhere to invest, and then they realized: wait, we need to direct this here so that it can work for other needs. Right. I mean, I'm a big believer in the transformative potential of AI.
But I also strongly believe that it will cost a lot of money. So, if you look at it, the sources of funding are becoming a little fewer. And the need for funds is much greater. And the only way to balance that without a recession or something terrible is with higher yields. But I think what I'm trying to think about is if there really is not enough money for everyone, and the costs for all these companies are going to go up significantly, that should be reflected in the stock prices.
No. So this, I mean, if you look at it, we no longer have the direct growth, exactly, of the phenomenon that we had. I think people are realizing two things now. The first is that it's more expensive than we thought, and the second is that not everyone will win. So, the venture capitalist mindset is starting to take over, and so you're seeing a little more caution from investors, and I think that's a good thing.
Do you think the price is fair now? Do you see great opportunities for further growth ? Part of the reason I think growth or continued upward movement is because I think Kevin Warsh needs growth to actually do some of the things he's planning on doing, like... Well, it depends on what you think he wants to do with the stakes.
No. So, I think there are two problems here. The economic impact in terms of productivity will be significant. What you don't know is how many of these companies will ultimately succeed, because it's an arms race in terms of investment. So if you ask me if the market is fairly valued on average, I would say yes, but in terms of individual names, I will tell you: who will win this race?
Because whoever wins, the profits will be huge, and investors in others will discover the reality of venture capital: one or two may win, and the rest will get less.
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