저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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버핏·로저스 류 거시 비관론: 채권·부동산·주식 일부가 버블이며 부채 누적으로 역대급 약세장이 올 것이라 주장. 원자재(은·설탕·원유)는 역사적 하락으로 상대적으로 싸다고 보고 선호. 본인은 공매도는 안 하지만 주식 일부 보유(중국·러시아·일본 등). 중앙은행의 통화 증발이 랠리를 만들지만 마지막 랠리가 될 것이며 사회불안과 통화·경제 붕괴 가능성을 경고.
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we've never seen anything like like this in recorded history so be worried I'm not short I haven't so short anything but uh I am certainly worried as I look around the world bonds are clearly in a bubble bonds have never been this expensive in the history of the world property in many places you go to Korea you go to New Zealand you go many places property certainly in a bubble stocks many stocks Amazon goes up every day 10 cent goes up every day Samsung goes up every day so some stocks performing a bubble but many stocks are still not up so it's not a complete bubble yet so there you have stocks property bonds all in bubbles are forming bubbles the only thing that's still cheap uh Commodities silver is down 60% from its all-time high Sugar's down 70% from its all-time high oil is down 50% I mean these are not bubble numbers when you talk about big big declines historic declines U but with all the money being printed the the asset class in the world that I prefer at the moment would be Commodities because they're cheap when everything else is booming I do own stocks I do own stocks in places like China Russia Japan other places uh but I'm not rushing out to buy unless I find something really good well I I said I'm not short uh I know it's going to end badly I still if something comes good comes along that's good I'll buy it uh but Adam I know this is going to end very very very badly to repeat the better it gets the worse it's going to get when it comes to an end I would suspect that when it ends we're going to have the worst bare Market in my lifetime Jim Rogers stated that we're likely heading for the worst bare Market of his lifetime he pointed out that in 2008 the market experienced a significant crash due to excessive debt and since then debt has skyrocketed to unbelievable levels worldwide even in China which didn't have much debt 20 or 15 years ago but now has a considerable amount Rogers questioned who will save us this time noting that in 2009 it was the Chinese who stepped in with money they had saved for a rainy day however he emphasized that China no longer has that Financial cushion Rogers expressed doubt about anyone stepping in to save the global economy now he even mentioned North Korea pointing out that while the country doesn't have much debt it also doesn't have the savings needed to rescue the situation Rogers also stated that he has little confidence in the so-called they the people some believe could save us he remarked that it's a good time to be old in a America as he won't have to bear the financial burden when everything comes crashing down however Rogers is deeply concerned about the challenges his children will face due to current policies he stated that its inevitable things will end badly and when they do both a currency collapse and an economic collapse could occur he pointed to the 1930s as an example when the world faced both leading to war Rogers emphasized that there isn't much good news on the Horizon referencing 2008 and 29 as Prime examples of what happens when debt spirals out of control since then the debt has gone through the roof by unbelievable amounts and I know that's going to end badly if we know what's going on we'll get worried and if we get worried we'll probably get prepared then we might survive some people came out of the 30s very rich most didn't most lost huge amounts of money but in 2007 Iceland went bankrupt nobody cared and a few months later Ireland went bankrupt some noticed few months later Bear Sterns went B now we're starting to notice and then Black Rock went went bankrupt in the big Bank in England and then eventually Leman Brothers went we in us on the evening news then everybody knows so my point is these things snowball and they start where we're not looking and it may have already started for all I know I've seen some small places having problems um but as I say I'm not selling short yet um because I I know how much money these guys can print uh and what I would suspect is going to happen Adam is somewhere along the line next month stocks go down in lots of places well then they're going to really panic because they want to keep their jobs and so they're going to print even more money and so we'll have a rally we have a rally but I would SU expect that that would be the last rally uh because it's only so much I mean eventually the markets is wait a minute guys we've seen this movie before we know how it ends we don't care what how much money you print um when you have bad times there is usually social unrest people aren't happy uh and if we do in fact have the worst bare Market of my lifetime which I don't see how we can avoid uh if and when that comes going to be a lot of very very unhappy and angry people and one difference in now in the past is people really get angry now they think that you can't do that to me um you know in this in the 30s people were a little more disciplined a little more understanding of what was going on in the world they weren't happy there were protests there were there were some V not much V in the US anyway since that's what we're talking about but people were a bit more accept of the system no Adam look out the window nobody accepts anything now you can't do that to me it's your fault it's not my fault so no we're certainly going to have social unrest certainly in the US but in other countries as well you find out what's going on if you do you'll get worried and then you'll get prepared because Adam it's very clear this history shows that when things go really wrong but history shows first of all politicians blame foreigners they always blame the foreigners because that's easy to do but then they it also leads to unhappy people and social unrest Jim Rogers stated that the main lesson of history is that people don't learn from it he noted that we had a president recently who either didn't know history or believed he was smarter than history thinking it didn't matter Rogers emphasized that history is smarter than any of us and that it does matter when people become unhappy they look for scapegoats and that's when things start to go wrong he pointed out that governments and central banks around the world have already accumulated trillions in debt an amount that would have been unimaginable not long ago Rogers expressed concern about what might come after trillions speculating that we might have to learn new vocabulary in the next year or two if things continue on this path he highlighted that nearly every government and central bank has been Printing and borrowing vast sums of money leading to a situation of excess that has never been seen before in recorded history while some may see this as normal or acceptable Rogers warned that it has inflated many markets he Illustrated this by saying that building a bridge takes time but with the amount of money floating around investing can be done in seconds online contributing to the ongoing Market Frenzy however Rogers noted that there are signs this might be slowing down China for instance appears to be cutting back a bit though not significantly other countries are also talking about cutting back and even the S has mentioned the possibility though action seems distant in the meantime Rogers pointed out that enormous amounts of money are still circulating affecting both markets and the real economy he described the situation as artificial mentioning that se like the shipping business are booming simply because of the excess money however he cautioned that these situations always end and the better things seem to get the worse the eventual crash will be
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