저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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5월 중국 금 매입 중단 발표에 금·은 급락, 이어 강한 비농업고용 지표로 추가 하락. 쇼는 이를 중국의 저가 매수 기회로 해석. 중국 5월 무역흑자 826억 달러(+7.6%), 대미 흑자 38억 달러(+133%)를 강한 경제 신호이자 금 매입 재원 근거로 제시. 고용 지표는 신뢰하기 어렵고 미국 노동시장은 약하다고 주장.
다듬은 글
so a big drop uh in gold and silver and what happened early in the morning this is before we got the non-farm payroll numbers which I'm going to get into uh on this podcast in in some depth but before that was announced the um the market was down go was down about $40 and I woke up on um on on Friday morning and I saw gold down $40 I I had no idea like why it would be down especially in front of a jobs report uh normally you wouldn't you wouldn't see that uh because you know people would you know be worried what if it was a weak number right people would not want to sell gold in front of that number normally if there's a $40 move in gold on a jobs day it's in reaction to the number right the number has come out and it's not what was expected and so there's a big move in the markets as they you know kind of readjust to the new the new data but gold was already down $40 and the market hadn't even opened and and so I wanted to know why so I go online I do a little research and I and I I see the news out of China that China had announced that during the month of May they didn't buy any gold at least officially they said they didn't buy any gold they had bought gold for 18 months in a row and in the month of May they didn't buy any Peter Schiff highlighted how Traders panicked when they heard China paused its gold buying he found this amusing pointing out it was just one month Gold hitting a record high in May without Chinese buying was actually a bullish sign he noted that the Chinese government had been buying gold for 18 months straight and even without their support for one month Gold still reached a new all-time high this showed the market strength shiff found it almost comical how Traders overreacted assuming China was done buying he believed this pause was a strategic move setting the stage for more buying opportunities according to Schiff the Panic selling Traders were giving China a perfect chance to buy more gold at a lower price turning a minor news blip into a golden opportunity this is just the beginning they got a lot of gold to buy does it make sense that they backed off of a little bit like all of a sudden gold is breaking out to a new record high maybe the Chinese were like okay let's pause a bit maybe we'll get a little bit of a pullback we've bought for 18 months in a row and now the market is kind of running away let's take a step back let's see what happens you know maybe we could get a little bit of a pullback which ironically they got based on announcing that they didn't buy the markets have just given China a gift not only because because the market fell $40 on the on the news that China didn't buy any gold in May giving them the opportunity to buy more gold now in June but then we got the the non-farm payroll numbers that came out later in the day that were stronger than expected and that sent gold down another $30 so down $70 on the day and so if the Chinese didn't think down $40 was a bargain I'm sure they're buying tonight I'm doing this podcast on Sunday night I'm sure uh that the Chinese government is going to be backing up the truck and and buying into this decline they're probably laughing about it about how foolish uh Americans are or Europeans to give them this gift and to react to this little news announcement they'll probably keep this up their sleeves for some future announcements when they want to buy more gold they'll they'll they'll they'll put out a news announce announ M like this uh so they can convince uh foolish Americans to sell them their gold at at a lower price and in fact you know when they announced uh the uh the fact that they didn't uh buy any gold they were also announcing other economic data that evening one of them or one piece of data that came out was their uh Trade Surplus which swelled the Chinese trade Surplus is kind of the mirror image of America's trade deficit and our trade deficit really shot up I think I mentioned that on the last podcast we had a big jump in our merchandise trade deficit which is going to shave off a lot from our GDP and in fact when I when I uh recorded my last podcast I mentioned uh the downward revisions uh to the GDP from the Atlanta fed and I said that I thought that that was just the beginning of a lot and of course the very next day on Monday they slashed the estimate again uh for uh the estimate for Q2 GDP but China announced that their May Trade Surplus swelled to 82.6 to billion that was a 7.6% increase or as a result of a 7.6% increase in exports and if you look just with the United States their Surplus with the us alone in May Balloon by 133% to $3.8 billion you know that is a strong economy Peter Schiff remarked that one way to gauge an economy's strength is by its Jibber levels he said strong economies produce surpluses while weak jabber produce deficits China's gibber is strong because they have a surplus and they're likely using it to buy gold he Jibber what else would they do with it Schiff speculated that the Chinese government assuming they take the the other side of trade when exporters sell dollars for R&B will convert their massive stockpile of us treasuries into gold he found it absurd that us Traders saw one month of China pausing its gold buying and concluded they were done skiff pointed out that it was actually bullish news that gold hit a new high without Chinese buying he also Jibber that the market misinterpreted the jobs report shiff said we got a non-farm payroll number greater than expected and the markets overreacted the jiber market sold off the US dollar rose and gold dropped another $40 he emphasized that jibber can be misleading and that beneath the surface it's clear these numbers mean nothing despite government reports on job Jibber shiff argued we have a weak labor market in the United States
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