저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현재의 비관론이 과도하며, 시장은 생각보다 빨리 악재를 반영해 바닥을 찍고 강한 반등이 올 수 있다. 배경: 코로나 이후 원격근무 확산으로 주택·자동차·가전 수요가 급등했다가, 공급 확대 지연과 노동력 부족이 겹치며 인플레이션이 발생했다. 연준의 긴축 지연도 실수였다. 현재 상황: 2022년 3월 31일 다우 550포인트 하락, S&P500 -1.57%, 나스닥 -1.54%로 분기 최악의 흐름을 보였다. 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁이 불확실성을 키웠다. 선반영 신호: 모기지 금리 급등으로 주택건설주가 고점을 찍었고, 자동차주도 하락해 가격 정점을 시사한다. 1분기 강세 섹터는 석유(감산)와 유틸리티(경기침체 방어)뿐이었다. 전망: 연준의 금리 인상이 여러 차례 이어지고 경기 둔화와 재고 과잉 우려가 커지겠지만, 시장은 이를 먼저 반영해 1개월 내외 또는 수 주 내 바닥을 형성할 것으로 본다. 이후 강한 랠리가 기대된다. 개별 종목: 데이터독(DDOG)은 좋은 회사지만 적자라 추천 보류. 팔로알토네트웍스는 사이버보안 최전선으로 강세 지속 언급. DexCom은 기술력이 좋다며 긍정적 견해. 리스크: 악재가 더 길어지면 반등 시점이 늦어질 수 있으며, 비관론이 현실과 어긋날 가능성을 열어둔다.
다듬은 글
Cramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cramerica. I'd be willing to make friends. I'm just trying to save you some money. My job, not just to entertain, but to put it in perspective. So, call me at 1-800-743-CNBC or tweet me at Jim Cramer. How does the market roll over so easily with the Dow plunging 550 points, S&P plummeting 1.57%, and Nasdaq goes down 1.54%?
That was easy. Closing out the worst quarter for the averages since March of 2 2 2020. March of 2020, that was a great time to buy. Sometimes Wall Street gets so negative, it takes your breath away. Out of nowhere, we've gone from believing the American economy is strong, maybe too strong, to now thinking it's in a tailspin.
It's so bad that now people are gloomy about everything, every industry. Each day they pulverize a new sector. Today was the banks' turn with the expectation of a surge in bad loans. There are hardly any bad loans. Uh yesterday it was cell phones, THEY'RE RED HOT. PCS, THE DAY BEFORE RETAILERS. PAYROLL.
MONDAY IT WAS HOME BUILDING. WHO WILL be on the rolling red hot bear griddle tomorrow? All right, I think the pessimism is getting out of touch with reality. But before I explain why, you need to know how we got here. Remember, a year ago we had no idea how our country would beat COVID. It was an odd time.
Many thought we'd soon be back to normal, but every time a new strain popped up, we collectively panicked. We already knew inflation was a problem a year ago, but the Fed figured it would wait once it would it'd have to go away, right? Had to go away once we got past the pandemic and new supply disruptions.
Then the Delta variant came along. The health regulators told us to stay home, and the return to normalcy it got delayed. Once we finally got over Delta, Fed chief J. Powell announced that it was really ready to the he was ready to stamp out inflation. It was November. But a couple weeks later, Omicron hit, and the Fed braced for the possibility of another lockdown, which seemed reasonable given we thought that Omicron might be as deadly as all the other strains, maybe worse, certainly more contagious.
That's why Powell postponed raising interest rates until earlier this month. In retrospect, of course, that was a mistake. Turns out we didn't need to worry about more lockdowns once the bulk of the population had been vaccinated. Policymakers are always fighting the last war. For COVID, the last war was March of 2020, but who knew?
Meanwhile, the pandemic has transformed the economy in ways we never thought could happen. First, unbelievably, many people who never dreamed of owning a second home decided to buy one because so many jobs went hybrid. Then they had to furnish it, burnish it, and get a car to drive to it. The whole movement was this unpredictable reckoning, and it was brought up by an empowered labor force that would rather resign than be forced to go back to work in person.
Nobody's ready for that. Nobody. Who could be? It was contrary to any trend we'd seen since downtowns were created. It was as though the economy went from zero to 90 in 2 seconds. Home prices soared. Home builders couldn't put them up fast enough. Car prices galloped higher. Unlike any other time in history, the sticker price wasn't high enough.
Normally it's the other way around, right? Used car prices traded over new car prices because there weren't any new cars. Now, in fairness to the home builders and auto makers, many of the executives who run those companies thought we were headed into a prolonged recession back in 2020 when the pandemic first hit.
Hey, the stock market certainly signaled with that. They decided to throttle back all their 2021 ordering. Ooh, that's where it went wrong cuz we're talking about with throttling back all everyone's for tools, washing machines, carburetors, gasoline, semi conductors. So, here's what happened. Everyone everyone got it completely wrong.
Every single judgment made has been upended. Much of it, again, because we embraced a new form of work, hybrid. The rise of remote work may be the most important economic transformation in my lifetime. And again, I don't want to blame Jay Powell for missing this cuz everyone missed it. The auto companies cut back production when they should have increased production.
Now, home builders need to put up as many homes as possible, but they put down put up fewer. We should have been building semiconductor plants left and right, we built none. Meanwhile, the oil companies got fed up with the boom and bust nature of their business, so they decided to be prudent for once and cut back on their drilling, something President Biden chastised them for today.
I doubt they care. These companies are finally making way more money than they used to. Little political heat from the White House won't matter. The makers of every part that goes into every car or a house were cutting back right when they should have gone into overdrive. Finally, we even seem to run out of food.
In the end, we needed far more workers and far more basic materials than we were able to produce or were willing to produce. At the same time, between COVID and a major change in the tax code, we've seen a massive migration from cold high-tax states to the warm low-tax states in the Sun Belt. And so, that's created a severe labor shortage in the manufacturing hubs where we most need workers workers.
I mean, it it it's totally upside down. Everything was already getting really out of whack, and then out of nowhere, Russia invades Ukraine in a war that has many on edge. Between the deaths and the photos and the threat of nuclear annihilation, Wall Street's psyche was shattered. We know from the RH conference call that the even the high-end buyers are shaking.
We're now stuck with a truly unhealthy development where everything has gotten too expensive for regular people at the same time that the Fed needs to slam the brakes on the economy to stop the inflation process, create some unemployment. But just when the Fed is swinging into action, I think the invisible hand of the free market seems to be taking care of a lot of this.
Let's tick them down. Mortgage rates have gone sky high versus where they were just a couple months ago. Homes have gotten so expensive that the home building stocks have peaked anticipating that home prices will soon follow. The auto stocks have tumbled, too, signaling that they finally can make enough cars and trucks that prices have peaked and will go lower.
The hybrid office in your second home that fuels remote work, it's fully built out. Whether it be from furniture from Williams Sonoma or RH, or whether it be from PCs, no more need for tools or Whirlpools or even Home Depots. Now, last bastion we find out these home offices, they've got everything they need.
Suddenly the conventional wisdom says there's too much of everything. So, prices are going to come down. Stock prices are anticipating that. And that's why the only sectors that sustained rally in the first quarter were the oils cuz they've cut back and the utilities, which really act well only when there's going to be a heavy recession.
Now, let's back up for a second. Remember how wrong we were last year when everything in the stock market got bid up too much right before the Fed declared war on inflation in word if not in deed? Back then, we overshot to the upside, and I could argue that the stock market's now overshooting to the downside in the same fashion.
While we still have an inflation problem, today's actions predicting a crash in sales for pretty much everything and a lot of bad debt. I say for now, just let it keep coming down. Accept that there'll be plenty of stories about, say, how AMD will have too many chips, or GM too many cars, or Lennar too many homes, Home Depot too much inventory.
The president now saying we need more oil. Maybe he gets his way and we'll have too much of it. Well, that'll be a tough one. The Fed will definitely raise interest rates, maybe many times. Declines will accelerate, and inflation will definitely be tamed. Most importantly, the market will have anticipated all this and will bottom well ahead of everything that I just described.
So, when does it fully get baked in? Okay, I'm not sure. But the bottom line is that we price in this negativity far more quickly than you think. Maybe it takes a month. Maybe it's only a few weeks, but it will happen. And once it does, we will be poised for one incredible, tremendous rally. Komal in New Jersey, Komal.
Hey Jim, great show. Thank you. Jim, my question is about DexCom. In the past, you have been bullish on this stock. However, with the Fed increasing interest rates and reducing its balance sheet to curb inflation, and the changes in the geopolitical environment, what do you think is the future of DexCom, which is at present trading at such a high multiple?
Right, it is, but they remember the remarkable scientists there, they do tremendous things. Here's the problem. Stock was at 400 a couple weeks ago, now it's at 500. But I think their technology is a winner, and they're going to keep shrinking the size of that device, and that's going to make people like it even more.
Let's go to Kyle in New York. Kyle. Hey Jim, how you doing? Thank you so much taking my call. Oh, my pleasure. What's going on? Uh well, Jim, I'm I wanted to ask you about Datadog. I'm a newer investor, but I I got into it and had a nice peak over the last like 2 years or so with some of the other cloud companies, but it's dropped off a little bit.
I'm wondering is it have they hit their peak or what what you think about it? it is a great company. I mean, a terrific terrific company. However, it is losing money, and we are non-operating, but it is losing money. Now, we do not want to recommend any stocks on this show right now when the companies are losing money.
It's just too painful and hard. All right, sometimes pessimism can get out of sync with reality. But for now, I say let that pessimism build. I think the market will price in more quickly than you think, and then we could be poised for a great rally. Those people who belong to the investing club know we've been selling and selling and selling the last tranche, not just because of our distribution.
Mad Money tonight. Palo Alto Networks, one of the few areas, by the way, that's still strong is cybersecurity. This company they're on the front line of defending the enterprise with cyberattacks, and I'm learning more about the state of the space with the company CEO because of what's happening with Russia-Ukraine.
Then the dollar store operators tip you off on what you should buy here. They look inexpensive, but are you getting the stocks of major players Dollar General and Dollar Tree at a discount or is it still at a premium? I'm going to give you my take. And you've called in and stumped me on some stocks.
I'm turning in my homework on a couple that I've been watching and I got to tell you, one of them is downright exciting. So, stay with Ced something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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