저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏은 레버리지 투자가 좋은 시기에는 수익을 극대화하지만, 하락장에서 파산 위험이 크다고 경고한다. 과거 LTCM 사례처럼 아무리 똑똑한 사람도 레버리지로 무너진다고 강조하며, 버크셔는 레버리지를 쓰지 않는다고 밝힌다. 사모펀드의 수익률 계산 방식과 과잉 자금이 기업 인수 가격을 끌어올린 점도 비판한다. 개인 견해로 대체투자와 사모펀드에 신중해야 한다고 조언한다.
다듬은 글
if you had leveraged up Investments uh in just Common Stocks uh and you'd figure it a way so that that uh you would have staying power if there were any Market di I mean you'd obviously obtain extraordinary returns I pointed out in my investing lifetime you know an index fund would do 11% well imagine how you'd have done if you'd leverage that up 50% whatever the prevailing rates were over time so a leverage investment in a business is going to beat an unleveraged investment in a good business a good bit of the time but as you point out the covenants to protect debt holders has have really DET deteriorated in the business and of course you've been in an up market for businesses and you've got a period of low interest rat so it's been a very good time for it I my personal opinion is if you take if you take unleveraged returns against unleveraged Common Stocks uh I do not think what is being purchased today and marketed a day would work well but if if you can borrow money if you can buy assets that will yield 7 or 8% and you can borrow enough money at four or 5% and you don't have any covenants to meet you're going to have some bankruptcies but you're going to also uh have better results in many cases it's not it's not something that interests us at all we we are not going to leverage up burshire if we leveraged up burshire we'd have made a whole lot more money obviously over the years but uh both Charlie and I probably have seen some more high IQ people really extraordinarily highq people destroyed by leverage we saw long-term Capital Management where we had people who could do in their sleep math that we couldn't do at least I couldn't do you know working full-time at it during the day and I mean really really smart people working with their own money and with years and years of experience of what they were doing and and uh you know it all turned the pumpkins and mice in 1998 and and he actually was a source of national concern uh just a few hundred people and then we saw some of those same people after that happened to him once go out and do the same thing again so it's uh uh I would I would not get excited about so-called alternative Investments there's you can get all kinds of different figures but there may be there's probably at least a trillion dollars committed uh two buying in effect buying businesses and if you figure they're going to leverage them you two for one on that you may have three trillion of buying power trying to buy buy businesses in a well the US market maybe something over 30 trillion now but there's all kinds of businesses that aren't for sale in that thing so the supply demand situation for buying businesses privately and leveraging them up has changed dramatically from what it was 10 or 20 years ago and I'm sure it doesn't happen with your Winnipeg operation but but we have seen a number of proposals uh from private Equity Funds where the returns are really not calcul calculated in a in a manner that uh well not calculated in a manner that I would regard as honest and uh uh uh so I it it's it's it's it's not something uh if I were running a pension fund I would be very careful about what was being uh offered to me if you're going to have a choice in Wall Street between being a great analyst or being a great salesperson uh the salesperson is the way to make it if you can if you can raise $10 billion in a fund and you get a one and a half% fee and you lock people up for 10 years you know you and your children and your grandchildren will never have to do a thing if you are the dumbest investor in the world
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