저자: MoneycessitybyBrian · 외국인
요약 보기
피터 린치식 분산투자 비판. 여러 '좋은 스토리' 종목을 소수 보유 후 주가 변동에 따라 압축하는 방식 강조. 좋은 기업은 일상 경험에서 찾고, PEG 유사 지표(성장률+배당수익률)/PER로 저평가 여부 판단. 코스트코는 점수 0.19로 고평가라 하락(haircut) 대기, 토요타는 2.76으로 저평가 가능성 언급하나 본인 경험 부족으로 유보.
다듬은 글
I don't believe in diversification at all I I would own one stock if I could find one great stock diversification is a big mistake I call it diversification Peter Lynch is talking big about diversification but he did have one phrase in there that's doing a lot of the heavy lifting he said if he can find one great stock well that's the trick isn't it find one great stock Peter is saying a lack of diversification is a privilege don't think you can just forgo index funds with out the finding part that's key I left with more questions than answers after hearing Peter's words of wisdom luckily for me he does go on to explain how the common man like myself can find one great stock at uh so I don't believe in diversification at all I would own one stock but what I do believe in is if I find 10 good stories they're all equally attractive I buy all 10 and I wait to see him unfold it's like watching 10 poker games 10 games of stud poker you watch the cards turn over Story 3 gets better story six slips story seven stays the same but it goes up 50% so you sell seven and buy two that's all I do so if they're equally attractive I buy all 10 then gradually some stor says oh my God this is getting better and better and guess what the stock just went down so you keep watching the 10 stories and magically because of that rule of stocks going up and down a lot then you load up you really you know take a big Advantage so Peter Lance doesn't start with just one stock he starts with sever several top stories as he calls it and the number isn't important he says 10 but the amount is really just going to depend on how much time that you or I have to research companies I can already hear the comments oh but he does diversify he's buying 10 companies well that is definitely more Diversified than buying one but there are two big distinctions to make here first of all traditional diversification means that you are buying many companies in every sector of the economy in every sub sector probably investments in every sector are made to mitigate the damage if one single sector or a couple sectors takes a big hit for instance if I owned a 100 different stocks but they were all in oil and gas then my portfolio would take a major hit if regulations were P limiting fossil fuels and I couldn't just own one stock in every sector because I would not be protected from the individual risks that are associated with a specific company for instance a single company in a flourishing sector could be devastated by lawsuits if an employee gets hurt on the job for instance so I would want to own many companies in every single sector if I was concerned with traditional diversification that way the only way my portfolio goes down is if all the sectors in the economy are going down on average Peter Lynch is not talking about that kind of diversification he makes no distinction between different sectors or different companies that are highly correlated with one another he is just looking for a handful of standout companies no matter where he can find them these second major distinction between Peter Lynch's 10 stories and traditional diversification is the filtering aspect Peter is trying to filter down to the best of the best he starts with 10 but there's no guarantee that he's going to stick with 10 he likes to watch the stories play out and then change his Investments accordingly in the short term the stock market can go up and down in a seemingly random and very volatile way and this represents an opportunity for Peter to capitalize on short-term irregularities maybe one company has a sharp increase in value and another has a drop in value and there's no material change in the company's story well Peter could sell out on one and buy more of the other in short Peter will start with a short list of companies and narrow it down as the stories play out but that still leaves the first question unanswered how does Peter come up with his short list of companies people are in Industries they're in the publishing industry they're in the chemical industry the paper why don't they just stay with an industry you only need a few stocks a decade how many good stocks do you need a lifetime instead people that are in the restaurant industry they're buying biotechnology stocks oil stocks it's absolutely absurd people don't understand their natural advantages the first step is doing qualitative research that leverages your natural advantages what are the quality companies that are in your industry what are the quality companies that you interact with outside of work what are the quality companies that you see growing and expanding in your area when I ask myself these three questions I can come up with a short list of Quality Companies that I know and that I like and that are growing or all the above and it doesn't take much more time out of my daily life to just be more conscious of the companies in my daily life and maybe you aren't ready with a list of stocks off the top of your head but you can start being more conscious of the companies around you it doesn't take much time or energy I used to think investing had to be so complicated but in the end it really just starts with locating great companies any way you know 10 years after Walmart went public 10 years after 10 years after it went public it's a 25y old company now you could have bought the stock and made 50 times your money on it let's say you were in a town they came into it and they said boy these prices are great they're doing terrific I like the bargains you checked it out you spend a little bit of work on it I mean people are very careful they when they buy a dishwasher they do some research they'll put $10,000 in some stock they hear on a bus so if you did a little bit of research you'd say Walmart's only 10% of the country they're not even saturated there why can't they go to the rest of the country Peter Lynch points out that you didn't have to get in early with Walmart it could have been 10 years after Walmart went public 25 years after they got started and you would have 50x your money doesn't have to be early you just have to find a great story so let me roll with the Walmart example for a minute I live in Texas and a huge grocery store in Texas is HB I love HB in fact everybody loves HB it's always packed every time I go there and they're only in Texas they have 339 stores they have a lot of room to expand into the other states however it's not a publicly traded company it's currently private so I can't invest in it so as soon as HB goes public this is going to be a company that I got in the back of my head that I'm ready to look into and invest in so let's do a publicly traded example I went to Costco for the first time recently and it was pretty badass and yes I know I should have gone there sooner Costco is a great company with a great business model you have to pay a membership fee just to get into the door so they're making money off of you before you even walk in and I was happy to pay the membership because they low prices more than make up for it anyway when I look at the map Costco has 600 or so stores and the largest chunk is in California with 139 stores second place being Texas with 41 and most of the states have just a handful and a few have none at all so it's not overly saturated there's still a lot of room to grow and it's a great store when I compare to the other top grocery stores in the US Walmart has over 5,000 stores Kroger and Albertson's have over 2,000 stores Costco has a long way to go and they're not stopping at the United States they also have stores in other countries as well okay so I've determined that I think Costco is a great story as Peter Lynch says does that mean I go ahead and buy a large position in Costco today no the next step is I have to determine is now a good time to buy Costco is it currently overpriced is it underpriced is it fairly priced I have no idea one thing you're trying to do say of all these public companies out there here's the company I really like the fundamentals are terrific their earnings are doing well their competitors are doing poorly I think this company's doing terrific and all of a sudden the stock might have gone from 40 to 30 because of this decline that would say wow here's a chance to buy it so you're trying to say some companies might have been overpriced at 60 and all they did was go to 50 and say big deal so you're trying to find companies you liked anyway right now you liked them and now they've had a haircut if Peter likes a company at a fair price he still won't buy it he will wait for a haircut he wants the stock to drop down to at least slightly underpriced in Peter Lynch's book one up on Wall Street he gives a simple formula that you can apply to determine if a company is fairly priced or better this way I can create my short list of companies that I have great experiences with and then I can apply the formula to see if any of them are underpriced fairly priced or better let's keep rolling with the Costco example is now a good time to buy according to Peter Lynch's model Peter Lynch's equation only requires three terms I need the earnings per share growth the dividend yield and the current PE ratio all three numbers can be found on Yahoo finance I go to the top and I type in Costco their ticker is cost and the first two or I guess the second two numbers can be found straight away on the summary tab their PE ratio TTM that stands for trailing 12 months that's just the previous 12 months is 54.
35 currently and their dividend yield over here on the right it says four dividend and yield that is 0.53% so we'll use 0.53 the only number remaining is the earnings per share growth to find that we go to the analysis and scroll down to the bottom where we have the growth estimates right here it says next 5 years per anom the analysts estimate that they will grow by 99.67% per year so that's a score of 9.67 now that we have the three numbers the equation is super simple as well all I need is the calculator app on my cell phone and I can perform this I put the earnings per share growth and the dividend yield together add those together and then divide that sum by the PE Ratio and I have the Peter Lynch number for Costco the earnings per share growth is 9.67 plus the dividend yield of 0.53 gives us 10.20 then we divide that by the current PE ratio which is 54.
35 and we get a score of 0.19 remember for the Peter Lynch number a higher score is considered better when Peter Lynch wrote his book he would Target companies with a score of 1.5 or higher any company with a score of less than one he considered to be overvalued so according to Peter Lynch's formula Costco is very overvalued right now and it is not a good time to buy for that to change either Costco's share price needs to go down or they expected future earnings and dividend yield needs to go up or both of those things could happen that would be ideal so Costco is a great company I will be keeping an eye out for Costco to get a haircut before I buy their stock many investors today argue that Peter Lynch's numbers are too low for today's market and that it'll be too difficult to find companies with a score of greater than 1.5 and I think there is some truth to this I like to Target companies with a score of greater than one instead of greater than 1 .5 to account for the fact that markets have gotten more expensive over time now that still doesn't change Costco's fade they're a score of 0.19 that's still very overpriced so I'm going to keep waiting on Costco now that being said there are still some companies today with very high scores take Toyota Motors for example they have an earnings per share growth estimate of 16.8% which is really high a dividend yield of 2.26% a PE ratio of just 6.9 which is very low and this gives them a score of 2.76 which is huge this puts them into the very undervalued category that being said I personally don't have much experience with Toyota so I don't know if it's a great story like Peter Lynch is looking for if you do have a lot of experience or if you're willing to do some research into Toyota it could be a great purchase right now if you've never done extensive research on a company before you can check out this video right here where I go over my process that you can use for reference catch you on the flip side
Comments 0