저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 달리오는 비트코인의 가장 큰 위험을 '성공'으로 보며, 현재 시총(약 1조 달러 미만)이 금 시장 대비 작다는 점과 정부의 규제 가능성을 들어 과도한 기대에 경계를 표한다. 비트코인 가치: 비트코인은 본질적 가치가 아닌 시장이 부여한 '귀속 가치(imputed value)'를 가진다고 설명한다. 해킹되지 않고 개발이 진행된 것은 큰 성과라고 평가한다. 비트코인 규모 비교: 현재 비트코인 가치는 약 1조 달러 미만이며, 중앙은행과 보석을 제외한 전체 금 시장은 약 5조 달러로 비트코인은 금 시장의 약 20% 수준이라고 언급한다. 성공하더라도 그 이상으로 크게 늘어나기 어렵다는 취지다. 규제 리스크: 비트코인이 성공할수록 정부가 이를 금지할 위험이 있다고 본다. 통화 완화와 자산 이동: 제로금리와 과도한 부채 상황에서 정부는 돈을 찍어 수표를 발행하고, 현금·채권의 실질 수익률은 크게 마이너스가 된다. 이때 자금은 주식, 금, 부동산 등으로 이동한다고 설명한다. 1933년 사례를 든다. 중국 투자: 중국은 공산주의와 자본주의가 공존하는 구조이며, 공동부유(common prosperity)를 목표로 세율은 미국보다 낮고 자본주의적 요소가 강하다고 평가한다. 다만 데이터 통제와 상향식 미세관리가 존재하므로 규칙을 받아들일 수 있는지 판단해야 한다고 조언한다. 중국은 단기 매매가 아닌 전략적 투자 대상이며, 노출 비중은 본인이 편안하게 느끼는 수준이어야 한다고 말한다. 포트폴리오 분산: 대부분의 투자자는 미국 자산에 과도하게 비중이 쏠려 있으며, 미국 기술 분야에도 리스크가 있으므로 분산이 필요하다고 본다. 금리·채권 전망: 2000년 이후 금리 인상 폭은 점점 작아졌고, 금리의 고점과 저점도 계속 낮아졌다. 제로금리 도달 이후 양적완화(QE)가 반복되며 규모가 커졌다. 달리오는 시장에 한 차례 조정(모의 폭락, mock charge)이 있을 수 있다고 보며, 장기 채권은 금리 민감도가 높아 하락 폭이 클 수 있다고 본다. 실질 수익률 전망: 현금의 실질 금리는 크게 마이너스이고, 채권 실질 금리도 마이너스일 가능성이 크다. 금리는 명목 GDP 성장률보다 낮게 유지될 것으로 보며, 이런 환경에서는 채권보다 실물 자산 또는 주식 소유가 유리하다고 본다. 출연자 전망 요약: 비트코인에는 중립적이고 부정적인 시각을 보이며, 중국과 금리 환경에 대해서는 장기적으로 실물·주식 선호를 드러낸다.
다듬은 글
it's an amazing accomplishment to have brought it from where that programming occurred to where it is and take the test of time i think bitcoin's greatest risk is its success um i always get yesterday i'm not an expert on but i'll tell you what i i think i'll tell you what i think anyway anyways take it it's not worth much uh bitcoin um has an imputed value not a intrinsic value and and so it depends what it's perceived as it's a tremendous accomplishment to have done that programming not have it hacked and to have its uh advancement at the same time and so it will have the perceived value that it is given by the marketplace uh now at the time right now if you take the value of bitcoin you take the price what should the price be and you uh since the quantity doesn't change you know what it's a function of demand right now bitcoin is worth a little less than a trillion dollars gold all gold in existence is worth if you take central banks and jewelry out of it about five trillion so it's about 20 of that market that represents you know the hedge market and so on i think that they're i think if you if it's successful really successful um it it's not going to be a lot more than that and if it's um and also if it's successful there's a risk the government will outlaw well this has all happened over and over again um that's what caught my attention when you hit a zero interest rate and you have too much debt and everybody needs money the way it works is the government sends out the checks but the government can't print money so it has to borrow money from the federal reserve and borrow money from others and they don't have enough money so that they print the money and so the value of cash and the value of bonds has negative real returns significantly negative real returns and so money goes somewhere else it goes into traditionally equities it goes into gold it goes into property it goes yeah same thing happened in march 1933 and that was when they produced a lot more money and that monetization which moves its way through the system mechanistically the way it works a bond the federal reserve comes in and buys a bond it gives it to an investor that investor then in turn puts it into other investments and then it gives it to the public through the government so this is uh that's the way the mechanics i don't think it's well understood for a long time the the question is how can communism and capitalism coexist that's the riddle you have to answer and he had to answer it a while ago and what do these people want at the top and what they the answer to that riddle was told also by deng xiaoping when he was asked he said it's glorious to be rich and then they asked about capitalism and he says it doesn't matter if it's a black cat or a white cat just as long as it catches mice and so the idea is producing wealth and so but capitalism for capitalism yes but the redistribution okay so we have four things that are really going on in china if if you understand their intent um uh common prosperity is the word now okay and it has been the objective to raise money and then to to broaden the base of right okay that's common prosperity so if you look at their tax rates they're lower than the united states if you look at the measures of almost capitalism they have as much capitalism or more capitalism much more so than europe for example and then and now they're in a prospect to broaden that so that i think there's a tendency and an understandable tendency to think because they are maoist and capital and and communist that they're going to uh go back to that kind of a thing um shishi ping just um for example introduced the newest stock market in beijing he made a point of being the one who introduced the market in beijing to the small and medium-sized enterprises they know that it catches mice and so the issue is that the capitalist is not in control the issue is that there's a system for the whole system and then what they want to do is make sure that um it's not a capitalist driven system so and then there's data control and then and then you have to understand there's micro management it's like the kids there's a there's a top down versus bottom up very simply you have to decide whether the rules and the place is a place that you're comfortable with they will set the rules and um you go in there and you decide if you're going to be part of that as a as a good citizen or you're not and then but you don't jump in and out you're in other words china is a strategic play you're not going to jump in and out so and and the amount that you're in should be that which you're comfortable with it's the same as an investor it's not smart to sell on the break or buy it it's it's it's a strategic play most investors are very overweight in the united states or other places diversification there's a competition a big competition a war of sorts going on between in technology and so on that diversification put the amount that and the exposure that you want to have there because you have to have places on some money on two chips because there are risks in the united states too the value of interest rates um the impact of interest rates has been largely taken out in terms of the magnitude you're not going to have that kind of volatility and if things go down you're not going to have the same kind of protections from the bonds as as you do it's changed because then you get quantitative easing it gets transmitted so that when you need an easing you get the printing of money and then you have the reflation type of dynamic so that's the way that's what the volatility is transmitted we've had plenty of volatility in the markets but not in the bond market right every tightening of interest rates has been less than the one before it since 2000 right since 1980 every peak and every trough in interest rates has been lower than the one before it and then when we hit zero then we did qe and every qe has been larger than the one before before it because we've accumulated so much debt and that we're now printing i think that you'll have probably one pullback right and i'll call that a mock charge and then you set the markets down because the duration of the bond market and the duration of assets is longer that means interest rate sensitivity is greater you have that particular correction and then you'll have another round of that and so i think it's that's the nature of the beast that we're in with the qe understand and that means negative real returns the things that must happen is that cash is going to have a lower interest rate than bonds what you'll get is a significantly negative real cash rate a negative and probably more significant real bond rate and that you're going to continue to have to have interest rates significantly below nominal gdp growth in other words inflation price real growth the average thing is going to increase let's take nominal nominal gdp that's production of inflation and growth you put those two things combined you would rather own a piece of that which is a pcp economy then you would want to own interest rates that's the environment you
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