저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 미국 주택시장과 주식시장이 동시에 과열되어 있어 위험하며, 금리 변화에 따라 주택 가격이 하락할 가능성이 크다. 주택시장 과열: 최근 12개월간 미국 주택가격이 약 20% 상승했고, 그 이전 5~6개월도 크게 올랐다. 소득 대비 주택가격 배수는 2006~2007 버블 때보다 높아 역대 최고 수준이다. 주택과 주식 동시 버블의 위험: 일본은 1989년 부동산·주식 동시 버블 이후 장기 침체를 겪었고, 이를 '이중 타격'의 사례로 든다. 지금 미국도 같은 위험에 놓여 있다고 본다. 주택시장의 평균회귀 특성: 주택은 주식처럼 평균으로 회귀하지 않는다. 용도지역 규제 등으로 영국·호주·뉴질랜드·유럽 여러 나라는 주택 공급이 부족하다. 하락 조건: 미국 주식시장이 하락해 소비 심리가 위축되고 경제가 약해지면 주택시장도 약세로 돌아설 수 있다. 다만 하락 속도는 천천히, 금리에 따라 완만하게 진행될 것으로 본다. 금리와 주택: 주택은 금리에 전적으로 좌우되는 자산이다. 30년 고정 모기지 금리가 역사상 가장 낮아 주택 구매를 부추겼고, 금리가 오르면 가격 하락 압력이 커진다. 원자재 리스크: 유가·금속·식품 가격 상승이 가계 소득을 압박해 소비 여력을 줄인다. 주식 하락과 겹치면 '이중 타격'이 될 수 있다. 리스크 요인: 낮은 금리, 높은 채권가격, 사상 최고 주식시장, 소득 대비 최고 주택가격이 동시에 나타나는 상황은 위험하다. 출연자 전망: 주택과 주식 모두 과열되어 있어 하락 위험이 크다는 비관적 시각이다. 구체적 목표가나 시점은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
I have to admit the housing market doesn't seem to have the kind of psychological accompaniment of a crazy bubble like the stock market and it didn't worry me much back in july 2020 but then that decided to go into warp drive then we've just had the biggest move and a 12 period and the history of U.S real estate about 20% in the last 12 months and quite a bit and the previous 5 or 6 months so since the U.S equity market reached two sigma bubble territory the housing market in the U.S has shot upwards with great determination and it actually sells at a high a multiple of family income than the housing bubble of 2006 and 2007.
because of that 20 percent 20 percent is a lot more in housing than 20 percent is in the stock market that is just an amazing move and it has certainly made the U.S housing market extremely expensive the highest price it has ever been as a multiple of your ability to buy it family income and history is been pretty straightforward whatever you do don't have gloriously overpriced housing markets at the same time as you have a stock market bubble.
Japan tried it the biggest land and real estate bubble and history anywhere arguably the greatest bubble of any kind anywhere and simultaneously they had 65 earnings it was set at the time in the japanese stock market that was the ultimate definition of potential pain as you had to mark them both down and they did and as i said that market isn't back 89 but the landmark isn't back to 89 either so you had double jeopardy a lost decade and you could say that those two bubbles from way back 89 are still casting a shadow on the japanese company yeah that some actually exactly my view that the housing market is not as reliably mean reverting as the stock markets have been and the reason why not is because of zoning and all manner of inefficiencies that unfortunately surround the housing market if you won't let people build houses then you get a chronic housing shortage and most of the great markets in the world today have chronic housing shortage they haven't been building enough in the uk for decades or Australia a New Zealand and many european markets they're simply under building generating a shortage and people simply have to pay more and more of their limited resources to buy a house we didn't fall in that category until recently and you could divide the housing bubble into two groups those were you had strict zoning and restraints on building and when the housing bust occurred they went down a bit but they regrouped and went to new highs and then you had the three markets where they were really cranking out new housing and Irland they were covering the whole island with new houses, in spain everybody had to have two houses and in the U.S they were cranking out an extra million and a half houses a year over normal and industry markets they caught up cluttered the market and the great housing bubbles collapsed and went all the way back to to trend in the case of all three of those markets and below trend in all three of those markets and this time we have an insufficient housing so you can't depend on the speed and extent of the decline the problem is if the U.S equity market goes down if it cost a shadow on confidence if it weakens the economy a bit if there are other economic problems and then i expect the U.S housing market to weaken the way i described this is the potential for write-downs and asset prices and perceived value of your assets.
if you are a record distance above trendline price in the U.S housing market even though does no immediate reason why the house market should collapse you will expect at some indefinite period in the time but people are pessimistic the potential is there for substantially lower house prices the one thing you should bear in mind is that housing is a complete creature of the interest rate through the mortgages mortgages there's nothing like that in the stock market their huge leverage they're fixed term that completely institutionalized a completely socially acceptable and they give you a level of leverage you could only dream about in the stock market on very favorable terms and the case of the U.S and if they lower your mortgage why would you not pay more for your house someone says to me today but why should i do i need to buy a house my attitude is look they're badly overpriced here's the data they're higher priced compared to your income then they have ever been but the mortgage is the lowest price that's ever done the mortgage if anything is more underpriced than your house is overpriced if you can guarantee to keep it for the life of the mortgage 30 years a you are prepared to rent it out if you have to it's highly likely that you'll do okay you may not do brilliantly but you should do okay and you may do very well and so housing is a complete creature of interest rates makes it easier to understand also why interest rates drive asset prices than it is in the stock market where it's a little more complicated i've tended to say we have three and a half bubbles commodities are little bit different i don't feel them because we're going to lose income or assets when the price of commodities go down people are ordinary people don't earn big positions in copper and oil in the future market what i worry about is is the income effect if the price of oil goes to 120 which it may well and the price of metals keep on going up the price of food keeps on going up simply squeezes your income there is less left over to do everything else and in that sense your poorer for dealing with the rest of the world if that coincides with the wealth effect from a stock market imploding you have a double whammy but you had in the housing bust how they came down and in a sense it took the stock market along for the ride the S&P went down 50 percent know as a very handsome negative income effect at the same time your house was going down and your confidence level was falling that double whammy which they had in japan for 20 years ready we also had in the U.S and it was much more painful and guaranteed a much tougher economic environment then we had for quite a few decades so you don't want to do that and you're playing with fire if you combine the lowest interest rates and the highest bond prices in history but the highest stock market in history and the highest multiple of family income in housing i'm not saying that they will all go to get there are reasons as you suggest that the housing market may unravel more slowly it will be more a slow steady function of interest rates and nevertheless were playing with fire by having all of those things overpriced at the same time we're running the risk that we will be squeezed by high energy and commodity prices as we're squeezed from the loss of perceived value in a housing and the stock market
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