저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 미국 증시는 거품 상태라 향후 10년간 수익이 거의 없을 가능성이 높으며, 미국 외 가치주 중심 분산이 낫다. 거품 정의와 통계: 2시그마 거품은 약 35년마다 발생하고 3시그마 거품으로 이어지는 경우가 과반이다. 1929, 2000, 현재 미국 증시와 1989년 일본이 3시그마 거품 사례다. 거품 붕괴의 고통: 거품이 클수록 회복에 오래 걸린다. 1929년 고점은 1956년에야 회복됐고, 2000년 고점은 2009년 손실 후 2012년경 회복됐다. 일본은 1989년 고점 이후 20년이 넘도록 회복하지 못했다. 거품 위험 신호: 1929년 3시그마 거품 대비 현재 기준선은 약 2500, 2시그마 수준은 약 3500, 3시그마 수준은 약 4600이며 2020년 말 고점은 약 4800까지 갔다. 거품이 꺼지면 자산 감소에 따른 소비 위축 효과가 있다. 미국 증시 구조: 자사주 매입이 최근 11년 강세장의 최대 동인이었고 임원 보상의 약 85%가 주식·스톡옵션이라 주가 관리 유인이 크다. 밈주식 열풍(게임스탑 한 달 약 110배, AMC 40~50배)은 1929년에도 보지 못한 광기다. 자산배분: 전통적 60-40 포트폴리오는 현재 매우 나빠 보인다. 미국 가치주는 성장주 대비 싸고, 미국은 다른 선진국 대비 비싸다. 일본·영국은 과대평가가 심하지 않다. 신흥국 전체는 미국의 약 절반 가격으로 싸다(중국 리스크는 존재). 전망: 비미국 가치주는 10년 보유 시 평균 이하라도 괜찮은 수익이 기대되며, 미국 주식은 10년간 수익이 거의 없을 것으로 예상된다. 대안 자산을 찾으라고 권고한다.
다듬은 글
So when you are unfortunate enough to have one, my advice is to do some sidestepping of some of the pain. Value stocks outside the U.S are not too bad you can expect to put them away for 10 years to make a respectable even if it's sub-average, you should make a respectable return Yeah if you can lock up your portfolio throw the key away you'll probably do okay the problem is if you had these super bubbles that concern me the three sigma outliers in 1929 you didn't get back until 1956 and in 2000 you had lost a lot of money by 2009 and you got back in the game about 2012 and the same with the housing bubble you can have a long wait the mother and father of all equity bubble is japan in 1989 and they're still waiting 22 23 years and they're still not back to the high and what happens in real life is people don't hang in and wait for the 40 year return in the case of japan they changed their strategy and abandoned ship as the market goes down more often than not so these are very dangerous events and you don't want to ride through them that you can avoid them and they're not that common though when you are unfortunate enough to have one my advice is to do some sidestepping have some of the pain.
yeah about 25 years ago we felt in order to talk about bubbles we should probably define them statistically and so we did just that and we picked a standard statistical terms of a two sigma a two sigma event is the kind that should occur every 44 years and a perfectly random world and with human beings who are capable of being a little inefficient they occur every 35 years in the equity markets close enough i would say for government work and we noticed that all of them in the developed world in modern times in equity markets went back to the trend and the trend is easy to measure the two sigma is pretty straightforward statistics and the fact that all of them went back without exception we find a very compelling idea that complexity comes from the fact that some of these two sigma events continue to go up and three of them in the U.S have gone up to three segment which is the kind that you would expect every 100 years but as i liked say humans do seriously crazy pretty well so they are much further away from random then two stigma and two out of three certainly more than half of two sigma go on to tree sigma in recent times and the three sigma events we have in 1929 2000 and today in the equity market and Japan as a major market overseas in 1989 and it doesn't change the outcome you go back to trend but since by definition you've come further up it takes longer and more pain to come down and the quicker the bubbles than the better off everybody is and we mentioned this one was a tow sigma back in july of 2020 or august about 3500 the trend line is about 2500.
tow sigma is about 3500 and 3 sigma 44-4600 we got to 48 in december and if you're going to have a bubbles better to break from 35 to 25 than it is to break from 48 to 25 and therefore the real MCcoy super bubbles are extremely painful and terms of a reduction of perceived wealth and there is a wealth effect when they knock down your portfolio or your house you spend a little less the following year or two corporate buybacks have been the signing number one driver of this 11-year bull market and has changed everything and then with the stimulus program of course the individuals came back quite suddenly and in many cases unexpectedly not just unexpectedly in the numbers and the amount but in their style the meme stock style of investing in something no one has ever seen before happily hopefully we'll never see it again but to take basically worthless stocks like Gamestop up 110 imes in a month and 40-50 times for AMC the movie chain these are levels of craziness that we had not seen in 1929 and even then the pet .com era in my opinion there was more money involved bigger moves involved then we had ever seen but to get back to your point so individuals came storming in at the end buying their own stocks by hand not not moving into institutional type mutual funds and the whole time corporations were buying their stock back why wouldn't they.
it's a safer way to invest that cash flow than developing new ideas of their own and they would rather go out and buy a company from the venture capital industry that's a capitol transaction why would they risk income transactions by developing their own new ideas so they're basically outsourcing to the venture capital industry that's the same kind of attitude but is represented by buying your stock back you know exactly what you're getting you know what it costs you know what the effect is you get rid of the weak holders of the stock and it helps push the price of the stock up.
the fact that it should not in an efficient world is irrelevant in the real world you get rid of weak holders and steady buying pressure on stock pushes the price-earnings ratio up and the stock options benefit 85 percent of the remuneration comes from direct stock grounds and from the stock options why would they not put management of the share price as a top priority I avoided the word manipulation but i was very tempted to use it Yes i think the 60-40 portfolio is disastrous looking today and we have many asset allocation funds at GMO called benchmark free and so on which attempt to make a decent return without regard to a benchmark and it twists and turns and it tries to be as ingenious as it can to own bits of paper fixed income stealing where ther's some extra way of making some return some use of your brainpower some alpha they can be put into the pot value is pretty darn cheap compared to growth and the U.S is about as expensive as if gets compared to other developed country so non-U.S equities are oddly semi reasonable they're overpriced but they're not too bad and one or two of them like Japan the U.K are really not materially overpriced either which is unusual with the U.S not unique incidentally 2000 was rather like that but it's unusual to have such a big disparity between one euphoric market and the rest of the world being relatively serious and more ordinary looking.
emerging obviously has some problems or question marks with China but emerging in total looks very much cheaper than the U.S about half price and the value component is cheap within a measure so value stocks outside the U.S are not to bad that you can expect if you can put them away for 10 years to make a respectable even if it's sub - average you should make a respectable return the U.S i suspect you'll make no money at all for 10 years and you have to find the kind of moral equivalent in fixed income other ways of investing your money
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