저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed가 금리를 더 인하해야 하며 중립금리는 약 3.5%로 높다고 주장. 현재 연방기금금리가 제한적 수준이라 중기적으로 약 4회 추가 인하(25bp 단위, 중간중간 동결) 후 중앙 금리 3%대 진입을 예상. 10년물 금리가 현재 수준에서 더 높아질 수 있다고 봄(시장 기대보다 높은 장기금리). 근원 CPI 월간 상승률이 예상보다 0.1%p 높을 것으로 전망. 공급 충격(허리케인, 항만 파업, 중동 원유)에 Fed가 반응하면 안 되며 장기금리 상승 가능성 강조.
다듬은 글
Joining us now to talk markets is Jeremy Siegel. He is lso the chief economist at WisdomTree, and uh professor, thank you for being here this morning. We've been uh kind of talking through what the Fed might do next based on those FOMC minutes that we got yesterday. It does not look like there's a clear consensus at this point.
It does not look like uh Chairman Powell will necessarily be able to drive um things the way he may want. Um and I guess you're someone who has been in favor of more rate cuts. Why don't you lay out your case for it because the data that we've seen recently doesn't really play into that. If you're looking at the jobs market, even if you're looking at what Bank of America's Institute told us this morning about the consumer based on the 69 million accounts that they have for consumers and small businesses, things look better than you might have anticipated just a month or two ago.
Yeah, I think for everybody, I think the Fed it it looks better. Um but uh I still believe and I I think the Fed believes that we are still way in restrictive territory. Remember, they they said the long-term Fed funds rate they want to go to is is 2.9. Uh that's two percentage points below where we are today.
Now, I actually think it's higher. I think it's probably 3 and 1/2 uh where we will eventually go to. Uh when I I just looked at the Fed funds markets, when I backed out risk premiums, it looks like uh about four more cuts to the middle of next year, which means maybe alternate 25 basis points and a pause.
But now, let me say the following for you know, some people say, "Oh, we should stop now. Things are great." I I think that's I think that's very dangerous. I First of all, if you think that the Fed funds rate is at the right level now, which is, you know, right very near 5%, then that means that the 10-year is going to 6% Uh and market rates are going 30-year fixed mortgage are going to go to 7 and 1/2 and I don't think that the market is expecting that.
So I think when you take a look at what the market is doing and saying is that yeah, it's not as low as what the Fed says we're eventually going to go to but it's still lower much lower than than we are today. Now we're going to get in a half an hour the CPI. I I expect actually that the the core rate might tick a tenth higher on the month over month than expected.
I still think 1/10 for the overall which would by the way bring the year over year overall all the way back almost to to the pre-pandemic levels. So I mean we are almost there on the inflation and the market is telling us you know, we we need to go further 25 maybe pause 25 but by the middle of next year I think we should have a three handle on the Fed funds rate.
You know, a couple of things. First of all, year over year you're still looking at anticipated CPI that CPI the consumer price inflation of 3.2% so that's still something to be a little concerned about. There are questions as to what a lot of things that we've seen recently will mean for the inflationary picture.
You can talk about the hurricanes that have just hit and then you've got issues about what happens when the ports come back in January. We've put off the strike for now. We'll see what happens to it. Got questions about what to expect from oil demand. What's wrong with the Fed saying you know, we're going to wait and see what happens over the next month or so.
Right. Well, the Fed should not react to supply shocks such as caused by the hurricane or caused by you know any hostilities in the Middle East that raise the price of oil by you know either keeping rates higher or raising rates. Um Well, they got to react to inflation. That would be doubly damaging in my opinion to the economy.
Uh listen, we've had oil experts on that that say that that the oil prices have to be lower next year that there's a lot of oil that could come online. I mean, we could talk about what potential if we take out of if we take out Iran oil and Saudi Arabia has 2 million barrels that it said, "Well, we could bring that online." But supply shocks such as the hurricane, uh the dock workers, you know, that listen, you know, if if the you know, you you can keep rates rising because groups oppose automation.
I don't think that that is the right uh place to be also. So, you know, when we when you take a look at the whole picture of where the Fed thinks the neutral rate is. Um and by the way, I look I looked back to when they started looking at neutral rates, which is way back in 2012. And if we if we stop now, we would be at the highest neutral rate, far higher than anything that they had proposed over the last 12 years.
And no economic model says that we should stop now and that the neutral rate is as high as it is. And as I said, if if it is that way, then we all need to be prepared for much higher long-term interest rates. You know, I was the one that said that when the Fed was was very aggressive, we would not see a drop in those long-term rates.
You'd see a rise because the Fed has taken and recession risk off the table. I mean, not 100% but largely off the table. And a lot of people buy that long bond as a hedge against recession. If the economy's going to be strong, long-term interest rates are going to be strong. They're going to go up. You know, everyone's that's waiting for the rates to go down, they're going to be very disappointed.
Comments 0