Stagflation is here, recession isn't yet. Economist Mohamed El-Erian says.

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결론: 스태그플레이션은 이미 현실이며 경기침체는 아직 아니지만, 고인플레와 저성장이 겹쳐 침체 위험이 커졌다는 주장. 발언 배경: 2022년 6월 27일 영상. 진행자는 Fortune의 기사(모하메드 엘에리언 캠브리지 퀸스칼리지 학장 인터뷰, Yahoo Finance)를 인용하며 경제 상황을 설명. 엘에리언 주장: 현재 미국 경제는 고인플레·고성장이 둔화되는 스태그플레이션 기조이며, 연준이 인플레 대응이 늦고 신뢰도가 낮아 소프트랜딩 확률이 크게 줄었다고 평가. 연준이 브레이크를 세게 밟아 경기침체로 몰 가능성도 언급. 수치 근거: 5월 미국 소비자물가 전년비 8.6%(4년래 최고), 엘에리언은 한 달 전 물가가 작년보다 9%까지 오를 수 있다고 우려. 경제지표 해석: GDP·실업률·인플레이션이 서로 엇갈리는 것이 보통이지만, 스태그플레이션에서는 좋은 소식이 없다는 설명. 진행자 해석: 인플레는 과도한 통화 공급(프린팅)과 코로나 방역에 따른 생산성 저하, 그리고 실업급여·부양금 등으로 인한 노동 유인 약화가 원인이라고 봄. 높은 물가와 실업 증가를 근거로 경제가 악화되고 있다고 주장. 정책·지정학 연계: 진행자는 우크라이나 지원을 장기간 지속하기 어렵다고 보며, 인구의 생활고가 커지면 대우크라이나 제재·지원에 대한 반대 여론이 확산될 것이라고 전망. 종목·자산 언급: 대상 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음. 거시 전망(스태그플레이션, 침체 위험)만 제시. 리스크: 연준의 과도한 긴축으로 인한 경기침체, 제재 장기화에 따른 사회적 반발. 출연자 전망: 스태그플레이션 현실화, 소프트랜딩 가능성 감소, 경기침체 위험 증가.

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01. hello my friends and welcome back thank you very much for being with me again today we are finally there that is uh stagflation and that's not good and if you put that together with uh the war in ukraine and with uh what's gonna happen in our countries here i don't think uh that support for ukraine would be viable for a long time i posted a video a minute ago a while ago regarding the uh oh that the the help the support it's endless support coming from the g7 for ukraine and uh it's gonna be for as long as it takes and i stated that actually that would be until the population will start talking and uh protesting against all these sanctions not because of the sanctions necessary but because of the consequences on their lives on their economic lives and their lifestyles due to the sanctions imposed on a country 3 000 million miles away from their shores so we have here an economist i don't know if i necessarily uh you know agree with economists in general because you know they sometimes get it right sometimes they get it wrong but in this case uh the evidence goes to one direction high inflation low productivity a shrinking economies that's where we're heading so this article comes from fortune from today june 26 2022 and this is the title stagflation is here even if recession isn't yet top economist mohamed el erin said now the u.s may not may or may not see a recession in the next year or two top economies contend top economies it content but one thing is certain stagflation is real and it's here in the us that's what muhammad al arin or ariane economist and president of queen's college of cambridge university told yahoo finance in a recent interview and i'm quoting the baseline is stagflation what we are experiencing now inflation high growth slowly slowing down he said the balance of risk has shifted significantly in favor of recession the probably the probability of a soft landing for the us economy has declined significantly due to multiple federal reserve mistakes el eri irain said adding that the fed didn't respond fast enough to inflation and i'm quoting unfortunately it's uncomfortably possible that the fed is going to slam on the brakes and push us into recession he said adding that the fed has low credibility and is constant consistently late no credibility low credibility and consistently late earlier this month he told cbs's face the nation that he feared consumer prices could rise to nine percent higher than they were last year in may u.s consumer prices were 8.6 higher than the year before a four-year high what is stagflation it's a combination of economic stagnation and high inflation which the added struggle with the added struggle of increased unemployment unemployment we're getting there right typically economists focus on three big macroeconomic variables cross-domestic product unemployment and inflation each measure tells its own important story about how the economy is doing gdp or the total output of all goods and services produced shows us what the broader economy is doing unemployment tells us about the job situation and inflation measures the movement of prices but their stories also and unfortunately they usually don't all tell us good news at the same time it's not uncommon for to see a strong gdp with low unemployment counterbalanced by high inflation or low inflation with lower gdp and perhaps high unemployment but their stories also overlap yes and unfortunately they usually don't tell us good news at the same time so normally there is some good news and some bad news but with stagflation there is no good news with that inflation there's no good news well the inflation we kind of know where that came from uh usually it comes from a crazy amount of uh currency dumped in on the market and that happens when you're incapable of supporting a uh healthy economy then you need to uh uh provide some uh uh incentive somehow and you make up with that uh for that with uh currency with money you print money and you print money and the more money uh you know available uh the less the value of the money obviously so we had that with uh correlated with the low productivity which was uh partly due to uh coronavirus uh restrictions and uh a lot of businesses uh worked at the low uh half deputy load low frequency they were not allowed to work they had you know all these restrictions with uh uh distancing and all that and um then it was a stimulus the money that was uh just given to the population to make up for uh you know not either not being employed or you know having low hours to work then productivity was low the economy did that a lot of money came on the on the market it was dumped in the you know in the economy and then you have unemployment unemployment because uh if you don't have you know uh you can't work you can't work that's one thing and then if you get benefits why would you work so why don't you i mean for instance i know cases of people that i'm dealing with uh they work maybe let's say uh the amount the money amount of money they make by working is about 10 above the benefits or how do you only call it the the money they would get otherwise from uh uh you know unemployment and other sources uh that are considered services provided by the government so they think why should i go and work for the 10 i just stay home and do other hanky-panky stuff and uh i get almost the same amount of money and if both let's say it's a family he and she they don't even work they stay home and they make almost the same amount of money i don't know i know cases numerous cases of people doing that or simply do that and work under the table that's another uh house they put in they don't pay taxes another way of making um you know money and all that who knows in in situations like this you try anything that you can do just to you know get ahead so it is what it is let's put it this way and uh unemployment they say it's uh it's growing and so on well i don't know about that inflation is high the prices for uh you know products is high so then we'll see what's going to happen we'll see what's going to happen but if that's going to be the case if it go keeps going down down down lower and lower do you think these guys are going to say yeah let's help another country somewhere else because it's a bad dude over there and some a good dude over there and my kids don't have shoes and clothes for the winter and the electricity goes high in the gas price and i don't think so so thank you very much for being with me again today stack affliction stay strong stay smart look for the truth and be just