Wedbush's Dan Ives on Apple earnings: Much better than feared

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애플 실적 발표 직후 CNBC 패널 토론이다. Dan Ives는 서비스 부문 실적 호조와 아이폰 물량의 공급 차질 이연으로 실적이 시장 우려보다 낫다고 평가했다. Dan Ives는 3월·6월 분기에 아이폰 약 800~1000만대 물량이 이연 반영되어 긍정적이라고 봤다. Dan Ives는 아이폰 14 기본형은 둔화됐지만 14 Pro는 강하다고 봤고, 교체 주기가 긴 225백만대의 4년 이상 된 기기가 향후 수요 근거라고 주장했다. Malcolm Owen은 애플이 다음 분기에도 부진하면 시장 전체 랠리와 괴리가 생겨 향후 시장 주도력 변화 신호가 될 수 있다고 봤다. Stephanie Link는 통화 효과로 모든 기업이 실적 타격을 받았고 수요는 다음 분기 이후에나 확인 가능하다며, 서비스 매출 성장률 4%는 과거 대비 둔화라고 평가했다. Tim Cook 인터뷰 인용으로 생산 차질은 정상화됐고 비용 절감과 채용 축소가 진행 중이라는 발언이 전해졌다. 진행자 및 일부 패널은 애플 주식에 대해 24배 선행 PER이 매력적이지 않다는 신중한 시각을 보였다.

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01. and I think it's better than even feared whisper numbers knee jerk the stock will be down like we saw in Microsoft but I believe is special with commentary going to March and June much better than feared especially given what we saw in China the whole month of December which basically how is it better than fear I mean how's it really better than better than feared excuse me um as they missed in so many different categories I mean let's let's be honest with ourselves here well first of all they beat on services and I think Stephanie talked about that that's super important in terms of for the narrative on the growth side and I think it just comes down to eight to ten million iPhone units based on our estimates basically shifted out of this quarter because of the shortages so I think Apples to Apples amiss you're going to look at that knee-jerk and and call like it is but I believe as we go into March and June that's actually going to benefit the March quarter and June quarter and that's what I expect to hear from cook caution with some optimism and I think it's gonna be similar as Microsoft and there's a stock that opens 24 48 hours is in the green despite the knee-jerk here Malcolm what what do you think about what Dan has to say about what this company delivered he makes good points right some of the fear was that even if there is a demand issue because of Supply concerns Etc that the March quarter is going to be they'll pull it all forward to the March quarter so don't be too upset about it now yeah I think from a bigger even bigger perspective with apple we may be setting up to find out just how impactful they still are with respect to the broader market right if Apple releases uh uh lackluster results again next quarter right I'm answering the question sort of that you asked me earlier about Microsoft but applying it to Apple if their shares sell off over the next couple quarters but the rest of the market continues to Rally that could be indicative of things to come throughout the remainder of the year like you're talking about so it could matter in the short term right how much they're missing those iPhone sales units I don't think there's really a a substitute for the iPhone I think either the recession is hitting you you're pinching your pennies and the replacement cycle for the iPhone might be a little bit longer than it has been in previous years because people don't have the cash to throw at another device that does the exact same thing but I don't think that there's a substitute for the iPhone so you're not trading down to something else necessarily so I think we're finding out right now over the next six months let's call it or through the remainder of this year if apple is going to continue to be as impactful uh for the broader Market the s p specifically or if we're rotating to some someone else becoming the more dominant leader Steve Kovac I'm coming back to you uh you just caught up with uh CEO Tim Cook is it Supply Supply as has been the refrain in in recent quarters yeah I got some commentary from Mr cook for you on that Scott so look overall for the Miss uh he told me some of the factors to blame for it were of course foreign exchange which has been a problem for Apple for a while and in fact says sales would have grown on a constant currency basis but the FX really hurt them there also there's production delays that we know about in China that was a big headwind for them and then just overall macro economic factors he said were another thing now let's talk about those production delays and demand uh here's what he told me about the production delays in China quote in terms of production today it's back to where we need it to be and so that problem is behind us now I pressed him on that you know production is where you need it to be does that mean it's back to 100 he wouldn't necessarily say yes it's up to 100 percent just that their production is fulfilling the demand they have right now so not uh you know super clear on what where the demand stands for iPhone but definitely some more color there for Mr cook and then also on cost cutting I asked about that as we see layoffs and cost cuts across the big attack here's what he told me quote we're cutting costs we're cutting hiring we're being very prudent and deliberate on people that we hire and so a number of areas in the company are not hiring at all and then others are hiring that are associated in engineering primarily end quote so engineering so a lot of hiring going on but for the first time coming out saying we're cutting hiring before he was a little bit more muted in the commentary in that Scott yeah all right Steve we'll talk to you in a few uh so Dan Ives uh quote unquote macro factors cited by Tim Cook to to Steve Kovac of course we're going to read into that at this moment and say is that code word for demand slowing look I think it depends on what part of the iPhone we're seeing on 14 on the base model we've seen that slow but on 14 pro that's actually been strong and that's important for asps and Cook's clearly going to use the macro card and I think that's a smart move here you want Street numbers to ultimately come down but in my opinion going into March June you have 225 million iPhones that haven't upgrade in four years and that fundamentally is why there's a rock Gibraltar stock Services beat and I believe the reaction from the stream is that yes it's actually going to be positive yeah Stephanie Link I mean we've been writing down numbers Fast and Furious okay first I've seen you out of the corner of my eye but first and foremost everybody's getting hit from currency so that that should not which we haven't even mentioned yet and by the way the dollar obviously is way down from where it was sure so maybe that will help in the latter part of the year you know I've been arguing for that right that's why I think kind of overall earnings might hold up a little bit better but everybody has a currency problem so I'm not even gonna we just let's move that along production delays getting fixed that's good but we obviously don't know anything about demand so now we have to wait until next quarter or the quarter thereafter to see about the demand side of things macro yep you mentioned it everybody's seeing macro and services I don't really think that that was a huge beat 20.7 when the street was at 20.67 that's four percent growth that's still slow down from from double ditch it's just a couple quarters ago but maybe as as Dan would suggest to you it's better than feared right the bar is I feel like the bar is is still pretty low now granted these stocks have had a nice run since the beginning of the year but the bar itself to hop over as we've seen in earnings as far as kind of low wouldn't it for some well I'll tell you that it's much lower for semiconductors than it is for these companies I think people are still very much involved in these names you know I only own a one percent position in apple uh in all three portfolios so um at 24 times forward estimates for four percent Services growth that everybody got so excited about to me I just don't find that compelling