Powell didn't fight back against stock market, says Jeffrey Gundlach

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Powell 발언에 시장을 반박하지 않는 태도가 보였다는 분석이다. 결론: 연준이 금리 인하 기대(피벗)를 강하게 부정하지 않아 시장 낙관이 이어질 수 있으나, 1~2개월 후 인플레이션 재상승 우려로 밸류에이션 부담이 커질 수 있다. 연준 태도: Powell은 피벗을 언급하지 않았고, 금리 인상 지속과 '작업이 끝나지 않았다'는 말은 했지만 작년 가을의 강경한 경고(고통 예고)보다 여유로웠다. 채권시장 가격에 대한 반박도 하지 않고 손을 저어 넘겼다. 인플레이션 근거: 헤드라인 CPI는 9.1%에서 6.5%로 하락했고, 최근 6개월 월평균 상승률은 16bp다. 이 추세가 유지되면 6월분 CPI는 약 2.5%, 30~35bp면 약 3%다. 다만 하반기에는 기저효과 소멸로 인플레이션이 4% 부근까지 되돌아갈 수 있다는 전망이 제시됐다. 시장 흐름: S&P500 연초 대비 약 8%, 장기채 약 9%, 신흥국 주식 약 11% 상승. 작년 말 세금 매도로 유동성이 부족했다가 연초 매수가 돌아온 영향이 크며, 이미 많이 올라 단기 수익률은 상당 부분 반영됐다는 견해다. 리스크: 인플레이션 서사가 시장을 떠받치고 있어, 그 서사가 흔들리면 고밸류 고베타 자산이 취약하다. 출연자는 2~3개월 뒤 과대평가 우려를 제기했다. 전망 요약: 단기 시장 상승 모멘텀은 유지되나 중기적으로는 조정 가능성에 대비가 필요하다는 입장이다.

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01. and CEO Jeffrey gunlock Jeffrey welcome back what a day to have you you know you said you tweeted going into all this today quote I suspect fed messaging will push back against the pivot narrative and thereby current bond market pricing should be interesting he didn't really do that did he didn't really talk I don't think he even mentioned the word pivot frankly uh he obviously talked about ongoing rate hikes but there was just something about his demeanor uh at the after he read the statement it just seems like he has confidence I guess what I'd say he feels comfortable in where he's gotten to and I think that everybody kind of sensed that and he obviously did not fight back against market pricing he almost uh waved his hand about the disconnect somebody asked him a question about the disconnect between pressure yields and the Dot Plot from last meeting and he just sort of said well bond market you know has its own ideas and uh it's pretty interesting so I thought that his demure was really the key thing remember back in August Jacksonville I think it was in September September he comes out like Apollo Creed predicting pain for the economy and you know lots of lots of unpleasant outcome as a consequence of the need to catch up on raising rates and I didn't hear the word pain at all today I I think one of the reasons that he's confident is he knows as everybody should know that the and we've talked about this in past meeting appearances judge that the CPI the headline CPI is coming down and it's came down from 9.1 to 6.5 what a lot of people don't know over the last six months the headline CPI has only gone up by 16 basis points per month on average and if we just postulate that maybe that Trend continues and we get 16 basis points for the next uh six months the June number that will be printed in July would come out at around two and a half on the headline CPI and if we come out uh if we come in more at about 30 or 35 basis points we'd be down at three for uh the headline CPI so I think he's got a little you know he's keeping it under a bushel but he knows that the CPI is coming down and he's using the word disinflation the real a question mark is going to be when will the market start worrying about inflation in the second half of this year because it's quite possible that the inflation rate does go back up towards four percent in the second half we just have such great base effects rolling off and he's confident of that he knows it's going to happen we're not really going to get a bad inflation surprise before the next fed meeting and so he was he was feeling feeling pretty relaxed and the market are you surprised are you surprised because you know the people that I've spoken with to this point you know really are hanging on this idea of this this pushback against the financial conditions loosening right the markets rallied there's a lot of the high beta frothy stuff that that's rallied he could have he could have he didn't he did that's right and it's pretty interesting because you know last a year was so challenging and we talked about in September that bond yields were going to peak in the fourth quarter and that markets were going to reverse in the first part of this year and I expected risk assets to do well uh during January and of course of course they have it's it's odd how uh people don't really always factor in flows in the way they think about uh the Turning of the year last year was so bad that we had tax laws selling all over the place and so there was no liquidity to buy anything and so the market was having a really hard time and now people are buying things back and now you're looking at your statement and you've got big numbers you've got the s p up eight percent we've got the long Bond the treasury is up nine percent you know we've got Emerging Market Equity up 11 so unfortunately I think that we've gotten a lot of return already um for the first uh part of this year and as we move forward a couple of months I think we're going to start getting overvalued because I think this inflation narrative that is so supportive of markets where we're almost I mean I almost thought that Jay Paul was going to use the word gold Goldilocks at one point he seems he seemed so comfortable with where he was uh so uh weird how he at the same time had this Aura of relaxation and yet he did still talk tough job's not done jobs not done we have to raise rates more we're not going to stop We Can't Stop too early but for some reason the the mood sort of trumped and that rhetoric just didn't seem to have the teeth or the intensity that he had uh last fall and I think because the market was for me to see that