Cathie Wood Shocked The World With Her New Tesla Price Target (MUST WATCH)

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캐시 우드는 테슬라 목표가 7,000달러(2024년 기준 시나리오)의 근거로 전기차 판매 3,400만대 성장, 자동차 마진 20%→40%(라이트 법칙), 자본효율, 완전자율주행 로보택시 25% 확률을 제시하며 AI·데이터 우위(140억 마일 주행데이터)를 강조. 반면 진행 내용은 테슬라 매출 성장 둔화, 자동차 기업에 가까운 마진(Q4 매출총이익률 16.3%), 자율주행 불확실성 등 우려를 제기하고 주가 22% 하락을 짚으며 매수 기회인지 의문을 표함. 후반 해설은 2025년 테슬라 매수 이유 5가지(EV 리더십, 자율주행, 사업 다각화, 생산 확대, 혁신)를 제시하나 리스크도 언급.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Kathy let me start with you known for your very uh bull case scenario here $7,000 a share on Tesla by 2024 what gets you to 7,000 uh there are a number of variables that get us there the first is uh our uh forast for electric vehicles in uh 2024 is 34 million units up from roughly 2 million last year so uh that right there is an exponential growth rate uh the second is our gross margin assumption we are using rights law which you may have heard us discussed before rights law gets us from roughly 20% on auto margins uh in the uh fourth quarter uh to roughly 40% uh during the next five years uh and then uh we're also looking at Capital efficiency Capital efficiency we see now from Shanghai that Tesla can build a car for roughly ,000 in capital spending per unit uh that is one of the lowest rates out there and finally our belief that Tesla is furthest ahead in autonomous capability so in that forecast we have a 25% chance uh uh or probability that Tesla will launch an autonomous taxi Network within the next five years Kathy another point that you mentioned on was their margins are you fully confident that Tesla is able to be profitable really from here on out uh yes on average on balance yes I'd just like to address the autonomous points that Edward made uh so autonomous is an artificial intelligence project uh Tesla is taking a leap from Apple's book here Apple was moving the smartphone market ahead so quickly so much more quickly the Nokia Ericson and Motorola that it had to design its own chip and the rest is history Tesla is the only auto manufacturer to have designed its own AI chip and our analyst our AI analyst James Wang who spent nine years at Nvidia took a look at the specs of that chip and said Tesla is four years ahead of any other autonomous uh or auto manufacturer the other way it's ahead is with data the winner in an AI project has the most data and the highest quality data Tesla has 14 billion plus miles of real world driving data while weo the closest competitor in this regard has 20 million 14 billion 20 million and Tesla has 700,000 cars out on the roads you could consider them robots collecting this data and sending it back every night and they have the best AI team we believe not just in the Auto industry but maybe in almost any industry Kathy wood remains bullish on Tesla despite her firm reducing its Holdings while AR invest trimmed its Tesla position by 28% in Q4 2024 Tesla still makes up 11.06% of its portfolio this move raised concerns but would clarify that Arc strategy involves rebalancing positions while maintaining long-term confidence in high growth companies like Tesla key reasons for Cathy Woods Tesla optimism autonomous driving and full self-driving FSD Kathy Wood strongly believes Tesla's full self-driving FSD software will be a GameChanger she sees significant progress in Tesla's Ai and expects self-driving technology to unlock new revenue streams if Tesla successfully scales FSD it could revolutionize personal and commercial transportation making Tesla much more than just an automaker Robo taxi Network potential Kathy Wood predicts that Tesla's future robo taxi network will be a major growth driver she has previously forecasted that Tesla could achieve a multi-trillion dollar valuation if it successfully launches autonomous ride hailing services this would allow Tesla to compete directly with Uber andyt but at much lower costs given Tesla's vertically integrated model in battery efficiency Ai and Robotics the Optimus Factor Tesla's AI capabilities extend beyond self-driving cars cars wood is particularly excited about Optimus Tesla's humanoid robot which she sees as a potential GameChanger in Automation and labor markets if Optimus becomes commercially viable it could disrupt multiple Industries and significantly boost Tesla's revenue streams Tesla's margins and profitability Kathy Wood also highlights Tesla's strong margins compared to traditional automakers even with price Cuts in 2023 and 2024 Tesla maintains healthy margins due to its cost efficiency software revenue and scale advantages as FSD adoption grows Tesla's software-based Revenue could further increase profit margins making it more profitable than competitors despite Arc selling some shares would clarifies that it was part of a portfolio rebalancing strategy not a lack of confidence in Tesla RK often takes profits from high- performing stocks to reallocate into other disruptive Technologies Tesla remains one of arc's largest Holdings reflecting continued confidence in its long-term potential over the past year Tesla has doubled in value but while that 100% growth is incredible has the tide turned Tesla stock has crashed 22% from where it stood barely a week before Christmas for a company with a market capitalization north of a trillion dollars still that is a big fall is this a buying opportunity for me or just the start of a rapid downhill Road for Tesla stock what to look at here I do not know where the share will go from here nobody does but quite a few things are making me nervous right now about whether the business merits that valuation first is the company's car business after years of strong growth sales volumes last year declined but the market overall is still growing Tesla is increasingly being outpaced by Rivals such as byd so while the company's total revenues grew last year and are substantial that growth was small at this point Tesla is trying really hard to get investors Focus away from its EV business mainly because of its mediocre performance the company has long portrayed itself as a tech company not in car maker but the numbers at this time say that is exactly what it is an automobile company Tesla had 16.3% gross margins and 6.2% operating margins in Q4 which is much more akin to an auto company than a tech company by comparison General Motors GM minus 1.13% had 12% autog gross margin and 6.8% operating margin in 2024 a hardware-based tech company like Nvidia meanwhile had about a 75% gross margin last quarter and a 62% operating margin musk continues to make big promises and even on Tesla's earnings call he made fun of the fact that he is basically the boy who called wolf however he said there really is a wolf this time with a self-driving car however even if the company is getting close to autonomous driving it is still behind alphabet's whmo which already operates in a number of US Cities and the economic model is still unproven here are five compelling reasons to buy Tesla stock in 2025 the first one is leadership in the electric vehicle Market Tesla Remains the global leader in EVS with a strong brand Innovative technology and a proven track record of delivering high demand products by 2025 Tesla's product lineup including the cybertruck Tesla semi and potentially a $25,000 compact EV is expected to drive significant growth Tesla's focus on vertical integration for example battery production in gigafactories ensures better control over costs and Supply chains the growing EV Market supported by global regulatory efforts to reduce carbon emissions positions Tesla to capture a significant ific share of the industry's growth the next reason is growth in autonomous driving technology Tesla's advancements in full self- driving and autonomous vehicle technology are expected to be game changers the potential for Tesla to launch a robo taxi Network could revolutionize transportation and create a high margin recurring Revenue stream Tesla's Dojo supercomputer enhances its AI capabilities giving it a Competitive Edge in the race to perfect autonomous driving even partial adoption of FSD by Tesla's existing customer base could contribute billions of dollars in annual revenue number three is Diversified revenue streams Tesla is no longer just a car company it's diversification into energy storage Solar Solutions and software subscriptions provides multiple growth Avenues energy storage products like the power wall power pack and mega pack cater to the growing demand for renewable energy storage solutions with increasing adoption of solar energy globally Tesla's solar roof and solar panels represent a long-term opportunity software and services FSD subscriptions over-the-air updates and other Tesla software offerings will generate high margin recurring Revenue reason number four is expanding Global Production Tesla's gigafactories in Texas Berlin and Shang high with potential new factories in India and Mexico are expected to significantly boost production capacity by 2025 Tesla's ability to scale production efficiently positions it to meet growing demand in both established and Emerging Markets increased production capacity will likely reduce per unit costs improving profit margins the fifth reason to buy Tesla stock is strong financial position in Innovation Tesla's ability to innovate and execute has been a Hallmark of its success by 2025 the company's focus on Innovation and financial discipline is EXP expected to strengthen further Tesla's profit margins have consistently outpaced many traditional automakers thanks to its efficient operations and high margin software sales continuous innovation from Battery advancements to Renewable Energy Solutions and new vehicle designs Tesla's commitment to Innovation ensures it stays ahead of competitors Tesla stock in 2025 presents a strong case for long-term growth investors it's leadership in EVS advancements in autonom driving Diversified revenue streams Global expansion and commitment to Innovation make it a compelling investment however as with any investment consider potential risks like economic headwinds regulatory challenges and increasing competition