저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 2023년 약세장이 아직 끝나지 않았으며 실적 하락과 인플레이션 재가속으로 1970~80년대식 스태그플레이션 위험이 크다고 본다. 주가 하락 및 반등 전망: 올해 상반기 S&P500 급락은 역사적으로 매우 빠른 하락이다. 베어마켓 랠리가 한두 달 더 이어질 수 있으며, 바닥은 현재 수준보다 훨씬 낮을 것으로 봤다. 실질 기준 고점 대비 50% 하락을 예상하고, 1년 뒤 추세선 가치는 약 3,000 수준이라고 제시했다. 실적 조정 리스크: 이익률 평균회귀와 경기침체 시 이익 감소가 주가를 더 끌어내릴 수 있다. 얕은 경기침체에도 이익마진이 크게 꺾일 수 있다고 봤다. 빅테크 및 종목: 아마존은 2000년 닷컴 붕괴 때 92% 하락한 사례를 들어 위험을 강조했다. 테슬라는 정점에서 지나치게 투기적 가격이었다고 평가했다. 아마존 등 빅테크는 훌륭한 기업이지만 초고성장 '슈퍼 시큘러' 범주에는 넣지 않았다. 금리·Fed: 연준은 인플레이션을 늦게 잡았고 대응이 부적절했다고 평가. 저금리가 자산가격을 밀어올렸던 20~25년 황금기가 끝났다고 봤다. 인플레이션·구조적 요인: 유가가 상대적으로 크게 올랐고 식량·비료·천연가스 가격 급등도 있었다. 중국·동유럽 노동력 유입 시대가 끝났고, 주요국 출산율 저하로 노동 공급이 줄어든다. 자원도 2차 등급으로 내려가 원자재 추세는 상승 쪽이다. 결론적 시나리오: 수십 년간 이어질 스태그플레이션 압력이 나타날 가능성이 높다고 봤다. 시장의 공포가 극에 달하면 투자 기회가 된다는 점도 강조했다.
다듬은 글
the first half of this year is about as fast as stock markets ever decline I remember seeing that the first four months was the fastest decline in the s p since 1939 when I was one year old and they were preparing for World War one so that's a pretty good excuse to go down and this was the fastest decline this is about as fast as markets go down they always have good rallies there's nothing as quick and spectacular as a bear Market rally they had one in late 1929 to early 1930 an absolute duty of 45 and of course with historical hindsight they signify very little but at the time they frightened the pants off the beds and they give hope that all is over all is forgotten and it's back to the races and I suspect we may very well have a pretty decent bear Market rally as we sit I wouldn't be surprised if this went on for at least another month in terms of the entire bear Market it would be unusual for it to bottom out anywhere near this high I would expect effected that by the load that the s p would have declined by 50 from the peak in real terms so you do have to adjust the stock market for inflation and also the trend the trend in the market is a little over four percent a year and as time passes you should put that into the fair value so a year from now when the bear Market might end trend line value would be almost 3 000 on the SP of course there's no rule that says you've stopped at fair value typically in previous big bubbles breaking they go down below that they went down below of course in the housing bust of 09 and they went down in every Great Bear Market break they went below Trend except Alan Greenspan's specialty in 2000 in 2000 the s p was heroically overpriced it came down 50 but at 50 decline it was only fair value it only hit the Trap and then bounced as the FED raised to re-stimulate the NASDAQ went down 82.
that's a lot of pain and it's possible that we would do that again but you do have to adjust for inflation there was very little inflation around in 2000 but this time with inflation running at 809 it does move the nominal value of the s p upwards and one shouldn't move sight of that the second shoe is going to drop which is profits so you have even a mild recession you get a big whack from profit margins and the p goes down but also the earnings you're multiplying it goes down it is quite likely and plausible that earnings will drop in recession I don't include classic fangs as being in the super secular category I think you could throw Tesla in at its peak that was super speculative great company but a bit of a silly price there but the others like Amazon and so on they're great companies but I wouldn't have included them as super space and yes they're down quite a lot it's hard in a bull market to get your brain around what happens in a bad Market let me go back to Amazon in the 2000 burst didn't just come down as its sales continued to grow of course in those days it didn't have earnings because it was running on borrowed resources it didn't have to it was still growing like the week it came down 92 percent 92 percent with strongly Rising sales a brilliant successful new idea that went on to own the world and be worth a fortune how is it possible it came down 90 92.
think about that sometimes as you go to bed I like to say 80 of the time the market is pretty sensible and doing a possibly good job of estimating value for all the companies a little under 15 of the time it gets carried away with optimism and by the end of that time has nothing to do with actual earnings it's all in the head projecting out hundreds of years into the future assuming the perfect conditions will stay perfect forever every bubble takes place with near perfect conditions and huge profit margins and the market runs with that and assumes it will stay there forever and of course conditions mean reverse profit margins mean Reverb and Good Times become bad times and that is a problem and the remaining five percent the market gets carried away on the downside and starts to be completely irrational as it was beginning to be in March of 2009.
it was getting pretty silly pessimistic I wrote a piece reinvesting went terrified that by sheer luck came out the day the market hit its low and it said get a policy get a plan present it to your committee or yourself and start to throw your money back into the market you feel paralyzed everyone always does and Now's the Time to wake up the market is cheap and of course that happened in 1974 and 82 which were classic lows and the market got down to 7pu and what I call terminal paralysis sets in where you're so frightened you can hardly move you can hardly get to work forget buy stocks and that's of course as Warren Buffett would have said that's exactly the time you have to do it and it's only five percent of the time they're much quicker than the crazy bull markets if I'd been asked about would the FED get inflation wrong when inflation came along at any time I would have said of course they'll miss it they'll be late their responses will be pretty ill-judged the fed's record is terrible what is impressive is how much room they have been cut by the market I mean the market is incredibly forgiving to the fed the FED happened for 20 years 25 years to benefit from that amazing era as 500 million Chinese raced into the big cities and were plugged from marginal farming into highly profitable industrial system and then they joined the World Trade Association and made everybody's stuffed dogs and everybody's iPhones for that matter during that phase days 500 million extra Chinese 200 million Eastern Europeans plugging into away from communism into capitalism that was a golden era Goldilocks if ever there was one and the FED got to take credit for them it's done nothing in terms of increasing the growth rate but superficially it felt like a golden age because asset prices went up because inflation came down and raids were allowed to come down and in the end rates were forced out and low rates may leverage cheap make private Equity deals wonderfully easy and profitable and they push up the price of real estate and they push up the price of stocks and that's the way it was and this time if you adjust for the passage of time the price of oil is not as high but it's still multiplied recently by three times so that is imposing pain on consumption and is imposing inflationary pressure we also have because of the invasion of Ukraine we have had some extra spikes in the price of food fertilizer and natural gas particularly in Europe interestingly they are now almost all of them lower in price than the day before The Invasion and this is a lovely example of how the stock market works the stock market is saying whoops there's so much damage from commodity price Rises etc etc we're going to have a recession but the recession isn't bad news because the recession is going to get the FED back in in our camp of lowering interest rates again and helping stock prices and we're looking out into the future and therefore that's the good news so the fear of a recession becomes a wishful thinking about due to interest rates and so the market gets a reprieve for a while it's quite remarkable but it's fairly typical and that's what we're having now and that's why we might have a bit of a rally for a few weeks I think in the longer term to get the next few quarters who knows what happens really but in the longer term we are really running the risk that this is back to the 70s we have problems with the availability of plentiful cheap resources and we have problems with plentiful cheap labor the birth rate has crunched in every developed country except Israel and China that's a very very important segment of the global economy to say the least and every one of them has lower than replacement level so in the end after accumulating lots of older people as a higher and higher percentage we start to actually have the population drop secondly we're 10 and 20 years in depending on the country into having smaller baby cohorts so we know with absolute certainty since they're alive already the 20 year olds arriving in the marketplace will be fewer and fewer for the next 20 years and we have not experienced this before this has happened incredibly fast China has gone from Plenty of babies to a baby crunch almost overnight their fertility rate that needs to be 2.1 is probably running about 1.4 and even in the US the UK we're running about 1.7 we've never seen levels like this so we're going to have a hard time getting enough labor we're going to accumulate old people who are very resource intensive they need a lot of medical care they need a lot of people care and we're not going to have all that many people they're they're supplier people to look after as old fogies is dropping steadily from now on for the rest of your life for sure and at the same time I believe the correct interpretation of the commodity data is that it wasn't only china shop the rapid growth rate for 30 years in China but it was also showing signs that the best and cheapest most plentiful resources have simply been mined or pumped and that we are running down into the second tier if you look at the track the trend has been pretty reversible to be up since 2002 and my guess is it will continue to rise and that will pose a real stagflationary pressure for a couple of decades and that's why I fear this is re-entering the 70s and 80s if you prefer it re-entering the 20th century once again so inflation will always be part of the discussion sometimes it will be low sometimes it will be higher but it will always be on the agenda the same with stagflation there will be pressure on growth that we have not had we have had a glorious honeymoon period for 20 years where race always came down and where Chinese workers were always available and inflation was a thing of the past and it is no longer a thing of the past
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